When an “analytics wizard” like Aaron Schatz talks, NFL fans tend to listen, especially when the words “Super Bowl” and “Detroit Lions” appear in the same sentence. Schatz, the founder of Football Outsiders and a widely respected voice in the analytics world, recently told Good Morning Football his Super Bowl prediction: Lions vs. Bills.
That’s right, the Lions are officially in the conversation for the biggest stage in football.
Analytics wizard Aaron Schatz tells @gmfb his Super Bowl matchup prediction:
Lions vs. Bills pic.twitter.com/ohM9XK903x
— Kyle Brandt (@KyleBrandt) August 12, 2025
Why This Prediction Matters
The Lions aren’t just a trendy pick anymore, they’re a legitimate contender. Coming off a 15-2 regular season in 2024 that earned them the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC, Detroit looked unstoppable. They led the NFL in points scored (33.2 per game) and finished top-five in rushing and passing yards.
But then came the shocker, a Divisional Round loss to the Washington Commanders that left the football world stunned. The Lions were loaded, the crowd at Ford Field was rocking, and yet, the dream fell apart.
Lions vs. Bills Super Bowl prediction
The Offseason Shake-Up
The 2025 offseason brought massive change. The team lost both coordinators: OC Ben Johnson left to become the Chicago Bears’ head coach, and DC Aaron Glenn, who is now the head coach of the New York Jets.
Enter John Morton (offensive coordinator) and Kelvin Sheppard (defensive coordinator). Morton inherits one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses, headlined by Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and a rapidly ascending Jameson Williams. Sheppard’s challenge? Maximize a defense that was riddled with injuries in 2024 but will return key starters in 2025.
The Health Factor
Injuries absolutely crushed the Lions last year, especially on defense. Losing starters at all three levels forced Detroit to rely on backups far too often. With a healthy Aidan Hutchinson anchoring a bolstered front, Sheppard has the tools to make Detroit’s defense complement their high-powered offense.
Why Schatz Might Be Right
On paper, this is a Super Bowl-caliber roster:
An elite quarterback who thrives in high-pressure moments.
The NFL’s most dangerous running back duo in Gibbs and David Montgomery.
A defense that, when healthy, can force turnovers and dominate up front.
A coaching staff hungry to prove they can win without the coordinators who helped build last year’s juggernaut.
The Lions aren’t just “hoping” to get to the Super Bowl, they expect to be there.
Bottom Line
Aaron Schatz is doubling down on what Detroit fans have been dreaming about for decades, a trip to the Super Bowl. If the Lions stay healthy and adjust to their new coordinators, there’s every reason to believe this bold prediction could become reality.