Could the New England Patriots go from a cellar-dweller to winning double-digit games in one year? ESPN thinks it’s possible.
On Wednesday, ESPN released win projections based on its “Football Power Index” (FPI) to mark the best-case and worst-case scenarios for each NFL team in 2025.
ESPN’s projections look favorable on the Patriots in their first year under Mike Vrabel. Their model predicts New England’s “floor” is a record of 6-11. Meanwhile, the team’s “ceiling” is 11-6.
That would represent a remakable turnaround from the Patriots’ abysmal 2024 campaign under Jerod Mayo. But as ESPN notes, the ceiling is based on a scenario where “if everything goes right."
ESPN says its win projections are passed on “20,000 simulations of the entire season performed by our ESPN Research team.” They note that projections are based on the middle 90% of simulations in order to eliminate “extremely unlikely outliers.”
The Patriots’ floor/ceiling projection is pretty favorable in the AFC East. That range of 6-11 wins is identical to the Miami Dolphins. Meanwhile, the New York Jets are projected to be somewhere between 4-13 and 9-8.
The Buffalo Bills? ESPN says their floor is 8-9 while their ceiling is 13-4.
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