I don’t gamble. First and foremost, I’m not very good at it. Even if I were, I don’t like the way gambling alters my perceptions of something I may enjoy. I’ve been miserable watching games in which my team (you know, like the Seattle Seahawks) was doing well because of the point spread. The rosiest spin I can put on this is that I love football enough to not need/want extra inducement.
I suppose a less rosy explanation would be that I simply have trouble controlling anxiety.
My unwillingness to place bets, however, doesn’t mean I don’t use theoretical wagers as a tool for measuring how I feel about something. In other words, I pretend to bet. And in my pretend betting before this NFL season, I find I am betting big on Seattle to surprise a lot of people.
The Seattle Seahawks are getting little love from the national media
This faith in Seattle doesn’t mean that I think they will win the NFC West. I think there is one clear favorite to do that. But whereas most of the national press has Seattle finishing fourth, or occasionally third, in the division, I think there is almost no difference between the second, third and fourth rivals.
Therefore, were I to bet (which I don’t), and I were getting favorable odds on Mike Macdonald’s boys, I would put my (hypothetical) money on them.
Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton recently predicted all eight NFL divisions, top to bottom. He made a lot of sharp observations, and I appreciate several of his longshot calls – like Jacksonville knocking Houston off the top spot in the AFC South, and the Chargers finishing ahead of both Kansas City and Denver in the AFC West.
But in the NFC West, this was his order:
San Francisco (12-5)
Arizona (10-7)
Los Angeles (9-8)
Seattle (7-10)
The fact that he gave Seattle seven wins suggests that despite their fourth-place finish, the gap isn’t all that big throughout the division. And I do agree with that impulse. In fact, I think Moton may end up getting the records exactly right. He just doesn’t have the correct teams associated with the records.
Let’s begin at the top. There is a love affair with San Francisco a-brewin’ throughout the land. It is based on the idea that their roster is great, Kyle Shanahan is a genius, and last season’s collapse can be pinned one-thousand percent on injuries. Each of those points is questionable.
I’ll leave Shanahan out of this. I actually think he’s a very good coach. The fact that there is a better one in the division doesn’t really diminish him, does it?
So let’s start with the health thing. Moton opens his discussion of their prospects by declaring the 49ers are healthy. But are they? As I write this, ESPN is listing eleven projected starters – eight of them on defense – as having some level of injury designation. Two of them – WR Brandon Aiyuk and safety Malik Mustapha – are listed as “Out.”
There’s still almost a month before opening day and many, if not all, of these players will be ready come the regular season. But still, I’m not sure I’d assume this is a completely healthy team. Two of their most important players – tackle Trent Williams and running back Christian McCaffery – have missed a lot of time of late. And both are getting older.
Williams, who has not played a full season since 2013, has missed an average of 3.5 games per season over the last ten years. The number goes higher if you count 2019, when he sat out the entire season. And despite being healthy in 2022 and 2023. McCaffrey has missed, on average, seven games a season over the past five years.
Football players don’t get healthier as they get older, so we have to ask, can you really count on these guys to play at their expected level for an entire 2025 season?
Finally, there is the question of overall talent. San Fran has lost a lot. Deebo Samuel and Dre Greenlaw were heart and soul players. I realize the team is high on Jauan Jennings and Dee Winters, but let’s pump the brakes a bit.
Jennings has had one good year out of four and is complaining about his contract. Winters has made 54 career tackles. Greenlaw did that in five good games. Are you sure these guys can play up to the expected level? I’m not.
And those are arguably the best – or at least the most reliable – of the newcomers. San Fran will need excellent play from rookie defenders like Mykal Williams and Upton Stout, and there are several other young players stepping into more prominent roles across the defense.
The left side of the offensive line will have Ben Bartch next to Williams. I thought Bartch was a very promising free agent target, but, reality check – he has started just ten games over the last three seasons.
Any team with Fred Warner and George Kittle and Williams and McCaffrey has to be taken seriously, but I see an awful lot of potential issues for San Fran this year.
As for Arizona, I think Moton has them pegged. They are an ascending team. I like Jonathan Gannon and the defense he is building. I think we know what we are getting with Kyler Murray by this point.
He is not the generational talent that some proclaimed him coming out of college, but he is far better than the draft “bust” others labelled him a few seasons into his career. He has Trey McBride already and if Marvin Harrison Jr. develops, Murray will benefit.
Still, with relation to Seattle, I can’t forget the relative ease with which the Seahawks handled Arizona in both matchups last year. They did not rely on their offense, which we all know may be a different animal in 2025. They did it with defense, a unit that should be even better this year. I just think Mike MacDonald knows how to stop Kyler Murray.
The Rams are the class of the division. If Matthew Stafford is healthy, it isn’t close. But as with Trent Williams, he is an older player with some recurring issues. Stafford’s back is clearly a problem. If he plays at his normal level through most of the season, the Rams take the division.
If he misses more than a game or two, or simply doesn’t look like himself, it opens the door for anyone – including Seattle.
Moton acknowledges Seattle’s quality defense. But I’m not sure he acknowledges it enough. I’m not sure anyone in the league sees it at this point. The returning core have a year under their belt with Macdonald. The additions of the veteran DeMarcus Lawrence and the rookie Nick Emmanwori provide two more explosive playmakers.
And look for Macdonald to employ genuine nose tackles this season in the person of Quinton Bohanna and/or Brandon Pili. That will allow more disruptive forces like Jarran Reed and Byron Murphy II more freedom to roam.
Defense, even great defense, can only take a team so far in today’s NFL. Seattle’s eventual fortunes will rest on Sam Darnold and his supporting offensive players. I can’t say that am certain they will all succeed. As much as I’d like to deny it, last year may have really been a fluke.
But he has weapons. New weapons. Young weapons. Tory Horton and Elijah Arroyo should become solid contributors. Robbie Ouzts will be an under-the-radar secret weapon.
The Seahawks offense probably won’t be great. But it doesn’t have to be. It just needs to make a few more good plays than bad ones, and let the defense do some of the heavy lifting. That may just be good enough, in a wide open division, to shock the prognosticators.
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