Leeds United are a Premier League club once again, with Daniel Farke aiming to maintain their topflight status in his first season at that level.
However, the size of the task for Leeds United to overcome is clear. That’s because there’s a pattern emerging in the Premier League in the last few years.
For the past two seasons of Premier League football, the three teams that have been promoted from the Championship have found themselves heading straight back down.
That has largely been via a pitiful tally as well. In 2023/24, Burnley, Luton Town, and Sheffield United set a record-low tally when they only got to a collective 66 points.
Then, last season, promoted sides Leicester City, Ipswich Town, and Southampton were even worse. Their accumulative total was a dreadfully low 59 points.
Premier League logo on match official's shirt.
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Premier League points needed to claim survival
There are Premier League blueprints Leeds can emulate but Adam Underwood, Robbie Evans, and the 49ers appear to have done their Premier League research on what it takes to survive.
However, the points accrued of late are not the best omens, with Sunderland, Burnley, and Leeds all hoping to buck that trend this year. However, the points required are perhaps not as high as they fear they are.
For as long as there’s been promotion and relegation in the EFL, football fans have been trying to predict the minimum number of points needed to claim promotion and to avoid the drop at the other end.
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In a study on BBC Sport, they outline that, traditionally, 40 points are said to be enough for Premier League survival. That is the magic number that most teams strive towards as a minimum.
That’s because, ordinarily, it is almost always enough to survive; only three teams have ever reached the 40-point mark in a 38-game season and subsequently found themselves in the drop zone.
They are, as follows: West Ham United with 42 in 2002/03, Sunderland with 40 points in 1996/97, and Bolton Wanderers with 40 points during the following year.
But, all three of those seasons were well over 20 years ago, meaning that is it now time to set a lower benchmark for the promoted clubs. The gap may be widening but the points required is lowering.
Farke has talked up tactical flexibility in the Premier League improving as well, which will also be key to ensuring survival on a game-to-game basis.
However, in their study of the past 10 seasons, the average points collected by the team in 18th — a total a team needs to better in order to survive — has been exactly 32. That means 33 ought to be the total in mind.
Over the past two seasons, the best newly-promoted side has averaged 25.5 points while the worst non-promoted club has averaged 35. So, that is more of an issue for Leeds and the like to overcome.
Daniel Farke during Leeds United's friendly against Man United.
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Premier League experts predict relegation for Leeds
The BBC also state that strong starts are also vital. That is because every promoted side over the past 10 seasons with 11 points or more after 10 games has survived.
Jamie Carragher has been bold about Leeds. However, taking fewer than that almost always guarantees an immediate demotion back down to the Championship.
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Other experts from The Athletic are predicting relegation for Leeds. However, that isn’t the prevailing view. Simon Jordan is also backing Leeds to do well.
That is perhaps down to the amount of Premier League appearances in the Leeds squad compared with their promoted peers and having faith in the recruitment department at the club.
Other supercomputers aren’t confident about Leeds’ survival chances. But football is played on the pitch and Leeds will hope to prove all of the doubters wrong.