The risk with free agent Dominic Calvert-Lewin is not a financial one. In fact, besides wage costs, you could argue it is a no-lose situation. The gamble is whether he is seen as Leeds United’s primary striker. If so, then the risk factor is indeed high.
Daniel Farke will be quizzed on whether Calvert-Lewin is his final striker signing of the window in Friday's press conference, having also brought in Lukas Nmecha on a free upon his release from Wolfsburg.
Given the absence of money spent on the two strikers - should Calvert-Lewin pass his medical - pressure will be on the board to splash cash on the next signings. A left winger, back-up full-back and possibly a number 10 are being sought after.
With Joel Piroe included, it takes the realistic number of senior striker options to three, though Harry Gray will be present too. The club are keen to shield the 16-year-old from pressure amid the club lineage of his surname.
At the other end of the scale is Patrick Bamford, who aged 31 has been told by Daniel Farke that he is not in his plans for next season. Bamford is currently keeping his fitness up at Thorp Arch as he hunts for a move away.
Bamford was beset with injuries in recent seasons, mirroring the strife of Calvert-Lewin himself. The former Everton striker has suffered at least two injuries in each of the past five campaigns. Naturally, comparisons are being made between the two.
While understandable, there are marked differences between the pair. Bamford turns 32 next month and Calvert-Lewin is 28, only becoming 29 in March. In theory at least, one is past his prime and the other is in it.
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Another factor is the level of football enjoyed in recent years. Bamford and Calvert-Lewin both had fruitful seasons in the 2020/21 season, plundering 17 and 16 goals respectively. Both have failed to hit such heights since but only one has stayed in the top tier throughout.
During the uninterrupted nine-year period Calvert-Lewin was fighting in the Premier League with Everton, Bamford has enjoyed just five seasons in the first division - and, obviously, none have come over the past two years.
There’s also style of play to consider. As is now common knowledge, Leeds have been after tall players this summer, nearly all of them standing at over six foot.
At 6ft 2in, Calvert-Lewin is only an inch taller than Bamford yet 31.8% (18) of his 57 Premier League goals have been headers. For Bamford, this lowers to 16.6% (four) out of 24 goals. We know set-pieces are going to be important next season.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Image: Darren Staples/AFP via Getty Images.)
That's why acquiring a set-piece taker is key for Leeds in the remaining weeks of the window and is something Farke says he and the recruitment team consider when looking at players in the market. But as for set-piece ‘receivers’, the acquisition of Calvert-Lewin makes sense.
For some fans, the better feeling may sway more towards Bamford given the service he has given the club versus the unknown in Calvert-Lewin. Make no mistake, the 11-time England international has a big point to prove, mainly in the injury department.
If he stays fit for long enough, he could be a success, especially given he offers something that current non-ousted centre-forwards don’t -prolonged Premier League experience. But then, that’s the risk the club are taking - fitness and consistency.
Success rests on that. United’s survival, if Calvert-Lewin is indeed the main striker signing this summer, rests on that.
The risk is not one of finance, but on availability. Yet the potential net gain from Calvert-Lewin versus Bamford seems prudent analysis.
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