With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every game in each gameweek, starting with the first matchday of the 2025-26 season.
The Premier League is back.
Nearly three months on from the 2024-25 season wrapping up, we’re ready to do it all over again for 2025-26, with champions Liverpool getting the action started on Friday.
Once again, the Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season, with the projection model providing you with data-backed predictions for all Premier League matches and season outcomes.
Our AI-powered supercomputer proved rather prescient in 2024-25 and will no doubt attract plenty of eyeballs throughout the new season as we anticipate another thrilling instalment of the Premier League.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League match predictions for the first matchday of 2025-26.
Matchday 1
The Opta supercomputer has delivered its match predictions ahead of the first weekend of Premier League football in 2025-26, as we look to see who’ll get their first points on the board.
After a strong season of match predictions overall last term, supporters will be looking at the 2025-26 picks even more forensically.
Champions Liverpool hope to make a positive start to their title defence, though the likes of Arsenal and Manchester City will aim to challenge them at the top after all three clubs made strong moves in the transfer market.
On the other hand, Sunderland, Leeds United and Burnley will try to end the run of all three promoted clubs going straight back down to the Championship over the past two seasons.
Matchday 1 sees games spread across Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday in a bumper weekend to start the new campaign.
Liverpool kick things off at home to Bournemouth on Friday, before Saturday’s action gets under way with an intriguing clash between Aston Villa and Newcastle United.
Tottenham Hotspur will be looking to put their UEFA Super Cup disappointment behind them against Burnley later on Saturday, but the standout match of the weekend comes on Sunday when rivals Manchester United and Arsenal tussle at Old Trafford.
The first matchday of the season concludes on Monday, with Leeds hosting Everton at Elland Road.
Premier League Predictions Matchweek 1: The Quick Hits
Liverpool are the supercomputer’s most confident pick of MD 1 against Bournemouth.
The Opta supercomputer is also backing Arsenal and Manchester City to open their campaigns with wins.
Leeds United are the only promoted club tipped to win, with Burnley’s chances of a victory the second lowest among the 20 teams.
Liverpool start the new Premier League season at home to Bournemouth on Friday, and the Opta supercomputer gives them a 69.4% chance of beginning their title defence with a win.
The Reds haven’t lost their opening league game in any of the last 12 seasons (W9 D3), currently the longest MD 1 unbeaten run of any Premier League side, while the reigning champions have lost their opener on just three occasions.
Liverpool have also won 11 of their last 12 top-flight matches against Bournemouth, who are given a 13.7% chance of winning at Anfield, though the Cherries haven’t lost their opener in any of the last seven seasons (W3 D4).
They know they are in for a tough test this time around, especially up against Mohamed Salah, who has scored more goals (nine) and registered more goal involvements (14) on the opening weekend than any other Premier League player.
Saturday’s early kick-off sees two of last season’s top six meet at Villa Park, with Aston Villa (42.6%) narrow favourites to beat Newcastle United (32.3%).
Villa did come out on top against Eddie Howe’s side 4-1 in April, but they haven’t won consecutive Premier League games against them since 2004-05, when they completed a league double.
Newcastle have lost five of their last six trips to Villa Park in the competition, but the last time these two sides met on the opening weekend, the Magpies won 5-1 in 2023-24 (at St. James’ Park), one of three consecutive wins in their opening league matches.
However, Villa are unbeaten in their last 21 home games in all competitions (W15 D6). It leaves Newcastle with a tough task, especially without wantaway striker Alexander Isak, who has scored 11 goals in his last 13 league away games.
The supercomputer is backing Brighton & Hove Albion to open their season with a win at home to Fulham, with the Seagulls coming out on top in 49.1% of the model’s simulations.
Fulham managed to win in 26.4% of sims, meaning there is a 24.5% chance of a draw. The Cottagers have won just one of their last seven away league games against Brighton (D3 L3), beating them 1-0 in February 2023.
Plus, Brighton have won their opening league match in each of the last four seasons; it’s the Seagulls’ longest such run in their league history, and the best current run of any Premier League side.
On the flip side, Fulham have won their opening league match in just one of the last eight campaigns (D3 L4), winning 1-0 at Everton in 2023-24.
Opta supercomputer - Premier League match predictions
It has been a busy summer for Sunderland, who have left no stone unturned in the transfer market as they bid to retain their top-flight status.
They start off at home against West Ham, another team who the Opta supercomputer suspects could spend much of the season in the lower reaches of the table.
The Hammers have a 43.3% chance of taking the three points this weekend, while Sunderland’s likelihood of victory comes in at 30.3%.
West Ham won their last two league away games in 2024-25, the only time they won consecutively on the road last term – they last won three in a row in October 2021. However, they have lost their opening match of a Premier League season more times than any other side (16) and conceded more MD1 goals than anyone else (50).
Sunderland are winless in their last eight league games against West Ham (D4 L4) – though it’s worth remembering that their most recent encounter was way back in April 2017, a 2-2 draw.
Tottenham Hotspur welcome Burnley to north London on Saturday, with Spurs no doubt still reeling from their collapse against Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Super Cup on Wednesday. After a strong performance against the European champions, Spurs threw away a 2-0 lead late on before losing on penalties.
This will be Thomas Frank’s maiden Premier League match in charge of Spurs, and none of their last eight managers (including caretakers) lost their first league game (W5 D3). The supercomputer gives him a 66.1% chance of continuing that run with a victory.
It also helps that Spurs have won eight of their nine home games against Burnley in the competition (D1).
The Clarets’ hopes of causing an upset on their return to the top flight are rated at just 14.5%, with Scott Parker yet to beat his former side as a manager. Even their chances of a draw look slim at 19.4%, though.
Saturday’s action concludes at Molineux when Wolves take on Manchester City, as Pep Guardiola’s side hope to begin making amends for a disappointing 2024-25.
City tend to start their league campaigns strongly, winning 13 of their last 14 openers, and their 62.2% chance of a win this weekend makes them the likeliest away winners of MD 1.
Guardiola’s men also have a favourable record against Wolves. Across the last five top-flight campaigns, City have won the joint-most games (four) and scored the most goals (14) of any visiting side at Molineux.
Similarly, Wolves have lost nine of their last 10 league meetings with City, which very much reflects their measly 16.6% chance of victory.
On Sunday, FIFA Club World Cup winners Chelsea (57.3%) and Community Shield and FA Cup victors Crystal Palace (20.9%) will look to start their seasons on a high note.
This will be the second time Chelsea and Palace have faced off on MD 1, with the Blues winning 3-0 at home on the opening day of 2021-22.
And, more generally, Chelsea have often had the better of this fixture, going unbeaten in their last 15 top-flight games against Palace (W13 D2), their longest active run against any of the 19 other sides involved this season.
Palace, who will be riding high off the back of their penalty shoot-out win in the Community Shield over Liverpool last weekend, can end a dismal run at Stamford Bridge, having failed to win on any of their last eight league trips to Chelsea (D1 L7).
After a disappointing end to an otherwise memorable 2024-25 season, Nottingham Forest will want to start on the front foot at home to Brentford, who have lost just one of their last eight league meetings with the Tricky Trees.
Forest are expected to win on Sunday, with the supercomputer giving them a 45.5% chance of a victory to halt their seven-match winless streak on the opening weekend (D2 L5).
Brentford, though, have never lost their first game of a Premier League season (W2 D2), scoring exactly two goals in each match. They’re given a 28.5% chance of earning a win.
After a busy off-season that saw key players and their manager depart, Keith Andrews will be keen to make a positive start to life in the dugout.
Sunday’s action concludes with an eye-catching encounter at Old Trafford as Manchester United begin their campaign against last season’s runners-up, Arsenal.
United are starting a top-flight campaign at home for the ninth consecutive season but are only given a 28.3% chance of earning their 100th win over the Gunners in all competitions (D55 L89). Their hopes of a draw sit at 25.4%.
Arsenal’s chances of a victory are rated at 46.3% as they look to continue their stellar away form from last season, when they went unbeaten in their last 14 league games on the road (W7 D7).
They have only won two of their last 20 league games at United, though both of those victories came under Mikel Arteta (November 2020 and May 2024).
The Red Devils do have a good record on the opening weekend, boasting the best win rate on MD 1 of any side to play more than one Premier League season (67% – 22 wins).
Arsenal have scored on each of their last 11 trips to United, and with new signing Viktor Gyökeres – who scored 68 league goals in the last two seasons for Sporting CP – in line to make his debut, they’ll expect to continue that run.
The opening round of action is wrapped up at Elland Road on Monday as promoted Leeds host Everton.
According to the simulations, this fixture is the likeliest to end in a draw at 26.6%, though Leeds are slight favourites to win their first match back in the big time, with their chances sitting at 40.1%.
Everton, who are given a 33.3% chance of victory, are unbeaten in their last five Premier League trips to Elland Road (W2 D3), while Leeds have failed to win any of their last five matches against the Toffees in the competition.
This one could yield plenty of goalmouth action, though, with Leeds’ last eight openers producing a total of 39 goals (almost five per game).
Premier League Stats Opta
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