If you agree with the common wisdom amongst NFL “experts” ( such as Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold’s 2024 season was at least partly a fluke), then feel free to laugh, scoff, and guffaw at what follows.
If, on the other hand, you think that Darnold, gifted enough to be the third overall selection in the 2018 draft, has finally grown into the quarterback that he was once expected to be, then consider that the Seahawks' new QB has a realistic chance of rewriting Seattle’s single-season passing record book.
Darnold’s 2024 season was indeed an outlier in an otherwise undistinguished career. But was it a fluke? Was it the result of a genius head coach and one of the best collections of pass catchers in the league? Was Darnold simply a game manager who happened to manage things well enough to earn his first Pro Bowl selection and finish in the top ten in MVP voting?
Top five in yards and touchdowns, and more game-winning drives than any QB not named Mahomes? A fluke? He is about to start answering that question with a new team, a new coach, and a host of new pass catchers. If he plays well, a lot of records could fall.
Will Seattle Seahawks QB Sam Darnold build on his 2024 success, or will he regress?
We’ll leave the second option – regression – for another time. For now, let’s think positively.
The paint hasn’t even dried on Seattle's record for most passing yards in a season. Geno Smith broke his own franchise record last year with 4,320 yards. That total put him exactly one yard ahead of what Darnold did with Minnesota last year. He had 4,319 yards. The Seahawks may not have any one receiver the equal of the Vikings' Justin Jefferson, but it is a potentially dangerous collection.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp are both very crafty wideouts who can pile up catches and yards, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling does not require many catches to gain major yardage himself. Rookies Elijah Arroyo and Tory Horton should provide the QB with plenty of explosive options.
Darnold tossed 35 touchdown passes last year in Minnesota. The club record, set by Russell Wilson in 2020, is 40. This season, Seattle will have receivers who can find the end zone from all parts of the field. MVS and Horton are deep threats, while Arroyo and fellow tight end A. J. Barner are excellent targets in the red zone. JSN and Kupp can strike from anywhere
And, just to add a little balance to the conversation, consider one of the oldest passing records in franchise history: Dave Kreig’s 1982 mark of 52 sacks. Darnold stands in the pocket and waits as long as he can for a receiver to work free. As a result, he takes sacks.
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Amongst the top ten QBs in the league last year, only Geno Smith took more sacks than Darnold’s 48. He will be playing behind a rebuilt line this year, but as many as three of the five linemen from last year may hold onto their ’24 positions. Even if he has a very good season, no one will be shocked if Darnold threatens that franchise mark as well.
I know what you’re saying. Every player to man is swearing that Klint Kubiak intends to run the ball. He wants to run it a lot. Doesn’t that strategy make it harder for the QB to break all those passing records?
Only if the run game doesn’t work. Then Darnold will be operating from a position of weakness. If the running game is successful, then that old expression about how “a rising tide lifts all boats” comes into play. Successful running actually opens up the passing if the offense is talented enough and the coordinator is brave enough to take advantage.
Need proof? Last year, five of the top ten teams in rushing attempts also figured into the top ten in total passing yards. That includes Detroit and Tampa Bay, who were second and third in the league in passing yards, despite running the ball a lot.
That could be Seattle in 2025. There are a lot of “ifs” involved. The biggest, of course, is if Sam Darnold can play up to the level he showed last year. If he can, then plenty of franchise records are in danger of falling.
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