The expectation for San Antonio should be through the roof if you've paid a speck of attention to what they're building. There shouldn't be a single publication, predictive model, or analyst predicting that the Spurs will miss the playoffs next season, but that's exactly what Tankathon is indicating by having the SAS at 14 in their 2026 Draft Lottery Odds predictor.
With the NBA Play-In Tournament now a staple of the postseason, this placement also basically says they'll compete in the additional games for one of the final spots in the playoffs, but lose. Spurs Nation should be taken aback by such a prediction. It's already been over half a decade since this organization made it to the party. The days of losing the invite in the mail are over.
The Spurs won't even be in the play-in
There were clear flaws on this team that you could see from the beginning of the season, but they were surprising people anyway. I can't abide a lack of nuanced thought when people are making their picks known. Too many continue to underrate the Silver and Black, undervaluing what they already have on the roster.
This team was on pace for about 41 wins after the first 30 games of the season. They were a game above .500 heading into January—the toughest part of their season. It would have been nice to have the greatest coach of all time for that stretch. If you're going to tell me that not having Gregg Popovich didn't matter, you don't need to be talking about basketball to anyone about sports.
And it wasn't like he simply retired in the offseason; Mitch Johnson was thrust into the role of interim head coach with the expectation that Pop was going to return. There was constant uncertainty, and the team wasn't fully his at that time. Now, Mitch has the chance to craft the team in his image from the very beginning.
Giving him the entire offseason and training camp as the head of the snake will make a tremendous difference, and let's not forget that all of the players rubber-stamped giving him the job. But that's just one aspect of why the Spurs faltered.
Devin Vassell's recovery took longer than anyone hoped, causing an up-and-down year for the young shooter. I won't even focus on the time Jeremy Sochan missed because injuries happen. But DVT in your best player doesn't. Though we've seen it a few more times over the years, the percentage of players diagnosed with such a condition is extremely small.
Then the Spurs trade players away to bring in De'Aaron Fox, who is shut down after a month to take care of his dislocated pinky. You have to take everything into account when making these predictions. Last season's team may have finished with 34 wins, but that was not a 34-win team.
The squad Coach Johnson will be fielding this season will be much better. They'll be healthy, they've been training all or most of the summer, the front office added depth in key positions, and Victor Wembanyama is going into his third year, where special players like him really start to dominate. If you seriously think this team won't be in the postseason, I have a lake in downtown San Antonio to sell you.