Former Premier League goalkeeper Ben Foster believes two “big clubs” will be relegated this season as Leeds United prepare for the first game of the season.
Daniel Farke and his Leeds side welcome Everton to Elland Road as they look to kick off their top-flight return with a victory.
Leeds have a strong record on the opening weekend of the season, having lost just two of their 15 opening matches, and will hope to have Dominic Calvert-Lewin available for selection as his transfer edges closer.
However, whether Farke has any other new attacking options available to him remains to be seen as Leeds face a battle to sign Bilal El Khannouss, just one of several live transfer targets.
Now, former Premier League regular Foster has delivered his verdict on whether Leeds’ squad is good enough to remain in the top flight, as they prepare for their first game back at a packed Elland Road.
Ben Foster Looks on ahead of Sydney FC v Wrexham AFC
Photo by Jeremy Ng/Getty Images
Ben Foster delivers Leeds United verdict
According to former England international Foster, the Premier League will benefit from having “big clubs” such as Burnley, Sunderland and Leeds back in the competition.
However, although he believes the run of relegations for the newly-promoted clubs will come to an end, he does not think Leeds will stay up this season.
Foster said: “I’m just thinking to myself here, as far as size of club goes. Sunderland, Burnley and Leeds are big clubs. They’re bigger than Bournemouth and Brentford. Sunderland and Leeds.
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“Even Burnley has been a perennial Premier League team over the last 15 years. They’ve been in the Premier League an awful lot.
“Whereas I just think, wow. It’s getting harder every year, and I do hope that it changes, and I do hope that the three that come up don’t just go straight back down. Even if it’s one or two that change it.”
Delivering the coup de grace that every Leeds fan feared, he concluded: “I’m going to go for Wolves going down with… I think Sunderland are going to be all right. I think Wolves, Burnley and Leeds are going to go down.”
Leeds United striker Joel Piroe during a game against Bristol City.
Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images
How many goals do Leeds need to score to stay in the Premier League?
There is an old saying in football that goals win matches, but defences win titles, and, although Leeds are not going to be in contention for the top spot this season, the same applies in a relegation battle.
Farke has prioritised building a solid foundation at the back, with experienced goalkeeper Lucas Perri set to line up behind a defence including new recruits Jaka Bijol and Gabriel Gudmundsson this season.
However, you do still need to find the back of the net, and the statistics from recent seasons show how many goals they will need to score in order to claim 17th spot or better.
Across the last five Premier League seasons, the relegated teams have scored a combined average of 35.4 goals per season. Only three teams have scored more than 40 goals in a season and been relegated since 2020, including Leeds in 2022/23.
Year Goals scored by 17th Goals scored by 18th Goals scored by 19 Goals scored by 20 Average by relegated teams
2020/21 33 27 35 20 27.33
2021/22 42 34 34 23 30.33
2022/23 34 51 48 36 45
2023/24 49 52 41 35 42.67
2024/25 64 33 26 25 31.67
Average goals by Premier League teams – Last 5 seasons
Excluding the 2022/23 season, which was an outlier in recent years, only Burnley have scored fewer than 40 goals and survived in 2020/21. Five teams stayed up with fewer than 40 goals in Leeds’ relegation season.
As a result, although 40 goals does not guarantee safety, the statistics show that achieving that golden mark gives teams a much better chance of remaining in the Premier League.