The most significant ripple effect of the seismic media deals completed by ESPN and Paramount this summer may come back to football Sundays. With the NFL now officially a part-owner of both networks, there could be a lot less shakeup in the league’s media rights package in the 2030s than we thought even six months ago.
The NFL now owns 10 percent of ESPN, which often airs games on the ABC broadcast network, as well as a smaller stake in Paramount, which owns and operates CBS. Anyone expecting a streamer to steal NFL rights from either of those two legacy media companies should think again. It is now in the league’s financial interest for the companies to succeed.
Instead, in a new episode of the Marchand Sports Media podcast released this week, sports media insiders Andrew Marchand and John Ourand predicted that the streamers will set their sights on weekly primetime games. That could shuffle the deck some, but not enough for the complete migration of pro football to digital platforms.
“When you look at the streamers and what they want and where they’re going to play ball or the people who (should) be worried … I’d be worried about Monday Night Football, Sunday Night Football, Thursday Night Football,” Marchand said. “I think (the NFL is) going to be on broadcast for a long time. Because it just, first off, it makes everyone happy. Secondly, there’s good business.”
If Netflix, YouTube, or Apple were to make a push for a weekly primetime game (like Amazon did for TNF last time around), that could displace NBC or ESPN/ABC. Then, Marchand forecasted, those companies could pivot and try to outbid Fox for the Sunday afternoon games. If the NFL indeed leans toward ESPN from now on, perhaps NBC is the odd one out. This way, the games would stay on broadcast television without compromising the NFL’s partnerships.
There are other reasons for the NFL to stay attached to legacy media companies. Beyond the reach of traditional, free broadcast networks, these companies also possess institutional knowledge and infrastructure for high-level sports broadcasting. As examples, Amazon pays NBC to produce games and Netflix pays CBS.
So Ourand expects both Fox and CBS to keep their packages into the 2030s.
“I think the two safest packages in the NFL are the Fox package and the CBS package,” he said. “What CBS and Fox do on Sunday afternoons, they produce at a high level. Sometimes five games at a time. It’s not easy to do.”
Something will have to give. Even if the NFL negotiates an 18th game with its players on the subsequent collective bargaining agreement and creates a season-long international slate in an early-Sunday morning window, that likely only opens one new package for the NFL to sell. Perhaps by eventually eliminating the NFL Network package, the league could gain enough flexibility to add multiple streamers without compromising its legacy partnerships. However, it seems more likely that one of these companies will become more aggressive and bid for additional games.