Nicolas Jackson may never play for Chelsea again. After two full seasons, 81 matches, 30 goals, and 12 assists, the opportunity to cash in on him awaits.
Having signed as a raw striker transitioning from left-wing, Jackson is set to leave with a respectable if infuriating track record. There are 18 yellow cards and two damaging reds to throw into the mix.
It is the optics around being sent off twice within a month at the end of last season as Chelsea battled through tough conditions away at Newcastle United in a vital clash in the race for the top five and then fought extreme heat in America against Flamengo at the Club World Cup, that has proven to be the last straw for many. Whilst undoubtedly skilled in certain areas, Jackson lacks what most view to be the clinical edge of an elite player.
At 24, and with a top-level senior career that is still relatively young, this is understandable. That does not make it acceptable, though, and Jackson's catalogue of misses can often overshadow the good parts to his game.
For example, the assist to set up Pedro Neto with Chelsea's first goal at the Club World Cup, is the sort of move that very few centre forwards can pull off. Jackson drops deep to pick up the ball in the middle of the pitch, dragging a defender with him, only to spin and turn away under pressure.
It is these situations that he is so good at. Jackson can trap balls and flick himself out of danger, setting up an overload further up the field after springing a man-to-man situation.
This article contains affiliate links, we will receive a commission on any sales we generate from it. Learn more
Sky Sports deal
Here, he fed Neto, who did the finishing touches with a nice cut inside to score. When it comes to being a natural in the box, though, Jackson still falls short.
His shooting is erratic and his left foot can be non-existent at times. His movement against deep blocks has not improved enough since his transfer, and he is not enough of a presence in the air.
That is what Chelsea signed for £30million. Even for his weaknesses, Jackson put up 24 league goals and 10 assists from 75 games (59 starts, just over 5,000 minutes). This is a goal every 0.41 games, and assist in every five, and a combined tally of 0.61 contributions per90.
These are more than solid numbers, especially considering he has done most of it without genuine backup, cover, or competition. Even with these unhelpful conditions, he is a striker able to hit account for at least 12-15 goals per league season with a smattering of assists, if he plays upwards of 2,500 minutes.
It is comparable to Kai Havertz, Liam Delap, and Joao Pedro, or versatile attackers like Cole Palmer and Jarrod Bowen. Jackson does this without penalties.
These metrics make him a £75.3million play, according to CIES Football Observatory. If Chelsea could get a fee that big in the final two weeks of the summer window then they would take it.
With Delap and Pedro now on board, Chelsea believe they have enough to fire them to success this season, even with a condensed pre-season and Champions League football returning to Stamford Bridge. Between Delap and Pedro, there is tireless running and defence stretching energy to keep things bright.
Adding Jackson to that mix could either be seen as overkill or serious depth. Two strikers (plus Neto, if needed, or the youthful but unready option of Shumaira Mheuka from the academy) is not leaving much margin for error when it comes to injuries, though.
It is more than Maresca had last year with Christopher Nkunku and Marc Guiu but also only a piece of unfortunate luck going against them to create a lot of pressure on one individual. At this stage, even if Chelsea do sell Jackson, they are unlikely to go for a direct replacement.
With Alejandro Garnacho and Xavi Simons the most pressing arrivals left, and Maresca asking publicly for a new centre-back for the second time in a week, it would take a big shift in focus at this point. The question is, as Jackson trains away from his teammates, is this the right time to sell?
On one hand, here is a player who had been trending in the right direction, threatening to become a world-class striker. On the other, Jackson has had a nightmare 2025 and is down the pecking order.
Chelsea went through most of the Club World Cup with him as an afterthought and the positive memories of pre-Christmas 2024 Jackson are a long way behind his red cards and problems in front of goal. The negative elements of Jackson's game have taken over his image.
With Hugo Ekitike and Benjamin Sesko moving this summer for big money without Premier League experience, the benchmark for a price is certainly there. Chelsea would stand to make a large profit on a player they signed two years ago having already found what they hope to be his replacement in the team.
If he remains, then Jackson will be an asset for all competitions. There is no guarantee that his value holds at this level, though. A contract until 2023, which was extended 12 months ago, does promise to keep him at the top end of strikers on the market, but finding someone willing (or able) to pay is another matter.
Newcastle, ironically, are the most obvious destination. If they sell Alexander Isak then Jackson is a readymade transition danger, already in England and available to buy. He is stylistically similar to Isak as well.
Outside of that, United's purchase of Sesko makes a switch to Old Trafford more implausible than earlier in the window. Even if Garnacho goes to Chelsea, Ruben Amorim does not seem to be awaiting another No.9.
Then there is Bayern Munich, who have been linked. Milan have also been mentioned. Deals of this size for clubs outside of England are becoming increasingly uncommon, which raises the prospect of Jackson not going anywhere after all.
He will miss the opening day of the season no matter what due to the carry over of his suspension. Beyond that, Chelsea know that this might be the best chance they have to sell him for a price which risks getting smaller over time.
football.london Chelsea WhatsApp channel
Chelsea flag prior the UEFA Champions League Quarter Final Leg One match between Chelsea FC and Real Madrid at Stamford Bridge. (Photo by Jose Breton/Pics Action/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Want to keep up to date with the breaking and important Chelsea stories whilst on the move? Well now you can!
Click this link to follow the football.london Chelsea WhatsApp channel, where you'll be kept up to date on the latest Blues news wherever you are.
Just remember to turn on the notifications once you've followed, and you won't miss a beat!