The news of rookie QB Shedeur Sanders’ oblique strain put a damper on anticipation for the Cleveland Browns’ next preseason game against the Eagles.
After an impressive performance in his preseason debut, Sanders is expected to miss the game. Fellow rookie Dillon Gabriel is likely to start instead, barring any setbacks in his recovery from a hamstring injury.
The Browns are underdogs in this game with +185 moneyline odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. They are +4.5 against the spread, and the over/under is 37.5 points.
After two days of joint practices, the Browns and Eagles are ready to square off in live game reps. Can Cleveland pull off the upset against the Super Bowl champs and improve to 2-0 in the preseason?
I’ll break down my Browns vs. Eagles preseason picks and best bets below. If you want to place any of these bets and need to sign up for a new sportsbook account, check out our guide on the best Ohio sportsbook promos.
Browns vs. Eagles predictions and best bets
Browns +4.5 (-108 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 37.5 points (-115 odds at BetMGM Sportsbook)
Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
My philosophy when it comes to betting on NFL preseason games is to lean into their randomness. I will almost always take the points or bet the underdog on the moneyline.
When games are unpredictable because of uncertainty about who will play and how backups will perform, it makes sense to take the built-in advantages of getting points or plus-money odds.
I am tempted to stray from my usual strategy in this game because of the quarterback play. Eagles backup QB Tanner McKee looks excellent almost every time he takes the field, including a scorching 20-of-25 performance for 252 yards and two touchdowns in the Eagles’ preseason opener against the Bengals.
The Browns’ QB situation is much more unsettled, and it’s hard to know what to expect from Gabriel and whoever else takes snaps for the Browns in this game. We could see a battle between two QBs that traded places this offseason in the Browns’ Kenny Pickett (if healthy) and the Eagles’ Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
I give the Eagles a big edge when it comes to those backups, and preseason games often come down to QB play. However, even McKee might see limited action this week after playing into the second half of the first game, which neutralizes most of the Eagles’ advantage.
Therefore, I am sticking with my usual strategy and taking the Browns with the points.
As for the total, scoring was up by preseason standards last week. The average total points in preseason games last year was 34.9, but it was 44.8 last week. Both the Browns and the Eagles scored 30+ points.
Does that trend continue this week, or does scoring regress to more normal preseason levels? With even fewer starters getting action this week, my bet is on the latter, so I’m taking under 37.5 total points.
Browns vs. Eagles preseason moneyline odds analysis
Why the Eagles could win as the favorites
Best odds:-205 at bet365 Sportsbook
The Eagles have a deeper, more talented roster top to bottom. Their backups dismantled a more talented team than the Browns last week, despite facing Bengals starters for most of the first half.
As noted above, Philadelphia also has a decided advantage at quarterback, especially if McKee gets another big workload. Even Thompson-Robinson has reportedly looked good in camp and was solid in limited action last week, so he might be a better option than anybody under center for Cleveland.
Based purely on value, I would not bet on the Eagles’ moneyline at -205 odds, but it’s not hard to see them winning this game.
Why the Browns could win as the underdogs
Best odds:+185 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The first reason to be interested in betting on the Browns’ moneyline is simply the value of the +185 odds. Preseason games are much closer to 50/50 affairs, so getting nearly 2-to-1 odds makes sense.
The Browns’ traditionally solid defense also should put up more resistance against the Eagles’ second- and third-string offense than the Bengals did last week. The Panthers might not be as good as the Eagles talent-wise, but the Browns’ defense still looked stout last week, holding them to 10 points.
Then there’s the quarterback play. While it’s disappointing that Sanders will not get to follow up his strong debut with another spotlight game, remember that the Browns drafted Gabriel ahead of Sanders.
There were other factors influencing that decision, of course. And it’s tough to expect too much from Gabriel, considering he’s a rookie who has missed significant practice time due to injury. But it also would not be surprising to see the Browns’ third-round pick stake his claim to the up-for-grabs starting QB job after seeing what his fellow rookie did last week.
Simply put, Gabriel and the Browns have more to play for, and that matters, even in the preseason.
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