Leeds United are rated as slight favourites to beat Everton on their return to the Premier League on Monday. Look ahead to the game at Elland Road with our Leeds v Everton prediction and preview.
Leeds vs Everton Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer rates Leeds as favourites here, with a 39.5% win probability to Everton’s 33.8%.
However, the Whites have won just once in their previous 11 Premier League encounters with Everton.
Everton boss David Moyes has lost just one of his 10 Premier League contests with Leeds as a manager.
Leeds United will need to arrest a poor recent record against Everton if they are to start life back in the Premier League with three points at Elland Road on Monday.
The Whites have racked up just one win in their past 11 Premier League meetings with Everton and have not managed victory over the Toffees in the past five.
Promoted as champions of the Championship last season, Leeds have lost just one of their past 28 league games (W19, D8), including winning their last six. However, they have failed to win in nine as a top-flight team (D2, L7), shipping 29 goals in that run.
Leeds boss Daniel Farke will be hoping to improve on an underwhelming top-flight record in what will be his 50th game as a Premier League manager. The German has only six wins from his first 49, and even if he does mastermind a win over Everton, he would still have the lowest win rate of any manager to oversee 50+ games in the competition (currently 12.2%).
Counterpart David Moyes successfully guided Everton away from the clutches of a relegation battle last term and the Scot has a great record against Leeds. He has won seven, drawn two and lost just one of his 10 Premier League games against them. Of sides he has faced a minimum of 10 times, he only has a better success rate against Sunderland (71%) than he does versus Leeds (70%).
Moyes emerged triumphant from his only previous managerial encounter with Farke in the 2019-20 campaign, as his West Ham side were 4-0 victors at Norwich City – a result that represents his joint-biggest margin of victory in a top-flight away game.
Everton will look to continue where they left off last term, when they won three straight games to end the 2024-25 campaign. They last won four in a row in December 2023 under Sean Dyche, and last did so under Moyes during his first stint as manager back in March 2008.
However, they have suffered defeat in their opening league game in each of the past three campaigns after going unbeaten on MD 1 in the 10 that preceded the start of that run.
Regardless of the outcome, there should be goals. Leeds – opening a league season on a Monday for the first time in their history – have been involved in 39 goals (just under five per game) in their last eight opening-day encounters, scoring 20 and conceding 19.
Jaka Bijol – one of eight confirmed Leeds signings this summer, with ex-Toffee Dominic Calvert-Lewin the latest – misses out as the Slovenian centre-back is serving a one-match suspension, while Farke will have a call to make on full-back Jayden Bogle.
Everton could be without star centre-back Jarrad Branthwaite for up to six weeks in an early season blow, while Vitaliy Mykolenko is a doubt. New loan signing Jack Grealish will hope to be involved, as will Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall following his arrival from Chelsea.
Leeds vs Everton Head-to-Head
Everton have a decent record on their recent travels to Elland Road, having gone unbeaten on their past five trips to West Yorkshire, winning two and drawing three.
That represents their joint-longest active unbeaten run away to any of the other 19 top-flight teams, having also racked up five without defeat at Brighton and Nottingham Forest.
Indeed, Leeds’ overall record against Everton does not make for pretty reading. The Whites have only won once in their previous 11 Premier League meetings with Everton (D4, L6).
Leeds United vs Everton Prediction
Leeds vs Everton opta match prediction
Leeds’ recent record against the Toffees may be underwhelming but the Premier League new boys are actually rated as favourites with Opta supercomputer from the 10,000 simulations conducted, triumphing on 39.5% of occasions.
However, in truth, there is not much of a gap between the two and Everton retain a 33.8% chance of victory, with the draw rated as a 26.6% shot.
In terms of the season overall, Leeds are tipped for a campaign of struggle with a 16.8% possibility of finishing rock bottom and a 16.1% likelihood of ending up 19th. Farke’s men have a 10.8% probability of finishing 17th and ensuring survival.
For Everton, the outcome – according to the supercomputer – is extremely unclear, though a comfortable enough campaign is expected. There is little variation between the positions of 10th and 17th, with 7.6% for 12th and 13th just about the likeliest outcome.
Leeds vs Everton Predicted Lineups
Leeds: Lucas Perri, Isaac Schmidt, Pascal Struijk, Joe Rodon, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Anton Stach, Ao Tanaka, Sean Longstaff, Daniel James, Joël Piroe, Wilfried Gnonto.
Everton: Jordan Pickford, Seamus Coleman, Michael Keane, James Tarkowski, Vitaliy Mykolenko, James Garner, Idrissa Gueye, Charly Alcaraz, Iliman Ndiaye, Jack Grealish, Thierno Barry.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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