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The Portland Trail Blazers should be a more than competent defensive outfit this season. General Manager Joe Cronin has flipped a roster that struggled guarding garden gnomes into a defensive behemoth, boasting length and athleticism at every position.
The problem is, the playing group now appears devoid of any standout offensive presence. The Blazers will, of course, score, but unlike previous years, registering 100 points will be a nightly challenge, not an expectation.
Last season, Anfernee Simons was the franchise’s leading scorer, averaging 19.3 points a night. Unless a subsequent trade — to the one that landed Portland Jrue Holiday — eventuates, Simons will be logging points for the Boston Celtics next season.
Second to Simons last season was Shaedon Sharpe who averaged 18.5 points, followed by Deni Avdija with 16.9, and Jerami Grant with 14.4 points. Toumani Camara somehow managed to finish as Portland’s best three-point shooting rotation player. The only two blazers who had a better rate overall were Matisse Thybulle, who played five games, and Jabari Walker, who averaged 12.5 minutes a night.
Finally, there’s Holiday, whose offensive numbers were expectedly down in Boston, however, the versatile guard is still a multifaceted offensive threat.
Today, we ask who of the quintet will lead the team in scoring, someone Chauncey Billups can turn to throughout the course of an 82-game season.
Age: 24Position: Wing/Forward
24-25 stats: 16.9 points, 47.6% FG, 36.5% 3pt, 7.3 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.5 blocks
Over the final 15 games of the 2024-25 season, Avdija put together stunning averages of 24.6 points on 50.2 percent from the field and 43.4 percent from three, 10.5 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.1 steals and 0.5 blocks. No one can dispute this is All-Star level production, but the question is whether he can sustain it.
Avdija, who turns 25 in January, still has room to grow and ability to nurture. While the above numbers might be difficult to maintain through an entire season, there’s an argument to suggest he can get close. If Billups is looking for someone to take over in late-game situation, Avdija has to be the number one guy right now.
I’ll add that his ability to make things happen in the open floor is only owned by a handful of his peers. With the way the Blazers execute their aggressive defense, the Israeli should have ample opportunity to put points on the board against unset defenses.
Age: 22Position: Wing
24-25 stats: 18.5 points, 45.2% FG, 31.1% 3pt, 4.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.2 blocks
As has been typed many times by this particular writer, Sharpe has shown glimpses but never stamped his offensive claim on the NBA.
This is the season we hopefully find out whether Sharpe is just a rotation wing or someone who can shoulder the responsibility of being a “guy.” Given that he may not even start this season, the young Canadian has his work cut out for him to prove he has that ability.
But he may have the highest upside on the offensive end. I have no concerns about his ability score within the arc but the three-point shots needs work. If it manages to rise and stay risen, Sharpe’s ceiling rises, particularly if he can also lock in on the defensive end.
Age: 31Position: Forward
24-25 stats: 14.4 points, 37.3% FG, 36.5% 3pt, 3.5 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.0 blocks
The former Syracuse forward is an interesting case. Last season, was far and away one of the former gold medalist’s worst. Whether that six months was an isolated slump or the start of a down trend remains to be seen. But the 31-year-old also averaged more than 20 points through his first two seasons with the Oregon franchise.
If Grant ends up being the Blazers’ leading scorer next season, I wouldn’t be surprised. He’s still fine from three and if he rediscovers his ability to score inside the paint, there’s every chance he returns as one of the Blazers’ go-to guys. This would not only boost the Blazers’ win total but also the potential return they bring back if they decide to move him midseason.
Age: 35Position: Guard
24-25 stats: 11.1 points, 44.3% FG, 35.3% 3pt, 4.3 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.4 blocks
Holiday’s 2024-25 numbers don’t look particularly impressive but we need to factor in his usage. In Boston, the ball was largely taken out of the veteran guard’s hands, illustrated by his 16.1 percent usage over the two years. This is in contrast to his stays with the Philadelphia 76ers, New Orleans Pelicans and Milwaukee Bucks where he never dipped below 22 percent.
You’d have to assume that without Jayson Tatum, Jalen Brown and Derrick White, Holiday will be entrusted with the ball a whole lot more, giving him more opportunity to put it through the hoop. As such, I’d probably look at his final Bubble-interrupted season with the Pelicans in 2019-20 as the best comparison.
That season, Holiday owned a 24.5 percent usage, averaging 19.1 points on 45.5 percent from the field and 35.3 percent from three, 4.8 boards and 6.7 assists. While age may have impacted his efficiency slightly, I’d suggest this output better reflects his projected role in Portland.
Age: 25Position: Wing/Forward
24-25 stats: 11.3 points, 45.8% FG, 37.5% 3pt, 5.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.6 blocks
Portland’s surprise three-point assassin will be given a bigger offensive role next season. Will he be able to maintain that 37.5 percent rate when his number of attempts rises from 4.6 a game? Given his two seasons outdoing expectations, I’m not going to make the mistake of doubting the physical Belgian and his ability to improve his game.
Camara won’t be putting the ball on the floor or creating for himself and others a whole lot, so I’d never expect him to average more than 25 points a night. But if he’s open, I trust him just as much as anyone to hit a jumper. He’s also more than capable moving without the ball and converting easy buckets.
Whether it’s done by committee or by a standout scorer, points will be need to come this season. My guess right now is that Deni Avdija will be the offensive leader. Of the five, he’s the most recent example of production while still being on an upward trajectory.
The fact that there is no clear offensive lead is both exciting and concerning. We are watching this team grow up in real time with nothing being radically ruled out. But the unknown does give me pause for the possibility that there’s just as much chance no one separates themselves, leaving more questions unanswered.
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