Despite the bevy of talent available, the Jaguars stay locked in on Trevor Lawrence:Jacksonville eschews Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Micah Parsons and others to draft their franchise quarterback.
Micah Parsons climbs to the second overall pick: The Jets take Parsons off the board after their original Zach Wilson experiment fizzled out.
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Estimated Reading Time: 15 minutes
The NFL draft is a crapshoot.
While NFL teams do their best to forecast which prospects will translate best to the next level, the reality is that franchises rarely get a pick exactly right.
But what would a draft look like if teams had the benefit of hindsight? PFF has world-class data for every player on every play in every NFL game, dating back to the 2006 season. Knowing what we know now, here is how the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft could have looked.
Any trades made during the original draft were reversed, while trades made before the draft were kept in place.
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1. Jacksonville Jaguars: QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (Round 1, Pick 1)
Original Pick: QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
The 2021 NFL Draft produced some superstars, including Micah Parsons, Ja'Marr Chase, Penei Sewell and Patrick Surtain II. While Trevor Lawrence hasn’t quite lived up to the hype just yet, the Jacksonville Jaguars still stick with him as the No. 1 pick.
Lawrence has earned 75.0-plus PFF overall grades in each of the past three years, despite dealing with one of the league's worst supporting casts and poor coaching. But with a new head coach in Liam Coen and Swiss Army knife Travis Hunter now at his disposal, The Prince That Was Promised could finally live up to that nickname.
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2. New York Jets: EDGE Micah Parsons, Penn State (Round 1, Pick 12)
Original Pick: QB Zach Wilson, BYU
If you ignore the obvious surplus value provided by quarterbacks, Parsons has a good case to be the No. 1 pick in this redraft. His 2.70 cumulative PFF Wins Above Replacement is the highest mark of any non-quarterback in this class. He has recorded elite PFF pass-rush grades above 91.0 in all four of his first NFL seasons.
Quarterback needs be damned. Parsons is, at worst, the second pick in a 2021 redraft.
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3. San Francisco 49ers: T Penei Sewell, Oregon (Round 1, Pick 7)
Original Pick: QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State
Since he entered the league in 2021, Sewell (1.84) trails only Trent Williams (1.87) in cumulative PFF WAR among offensive tackles. That is thanks, in large part, to how dominant Sewell has been as a run blocker. In 2023, he earned a 95.1 PFF run-blocking grade. In 2024, he logged another elite mark of 91.5. Pairing Sewell with Williams would be a scary sight for the rest of the league.
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4. Atlanta Falcons: CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama (Round 1, Pick 9)
Original Pick: TE Kyle Pitts, Florida
The reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Surtain (2.31) trails only Jalen Ramsey (2.36) in PFF WAR among cornerbacks since 2021. He earned an 85.1 PFF coverage grade in 2024, marking the second time in his career that he earned a single-season mark above 85.0.
Surtain also allowed just 0.53 yards per coverage snap on 682 coverage snaps. The Falcons needed offensive help at the time, but Surtain is too good to pass up.
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5. Cincinnati Bengals: WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU (Round 1, Pick 5)
Original Pick: WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU
For as great as Amon-Ra St. Brown has been so far (more on that soon), Chase is still the first receiver off the board in a 2021 redraft. Chase has recorded 1.92 PFF WAR for his career, including 0.64 in his triple crown-winning 2024 campaign.
The LSU product has never posted a season-long PFF receiving grade below 83.0, and he is simply one of the best one-on-one receivers in the game.
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6. Miami Dolphins: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC (Round 4, Pick 112)
Original Pick: WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
St. Brown has been a gem of a fourth-round pick for the Lions. His 2.03 cumulative PFF WAR is the highest mark of any receiver in the class, and he has earned three straight 89.0-plus single-season PFF receiving grades. St. Brown is a master of his craft already. His production feels inevitable each game.
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7. Detroit Lions: T Rashawn Slater, Northwestern (Round 1, Pick 13)
Original Pick: T Penei Sewell, Oregon
Slater is difficult to fit into a redraft, as he has now suffered two season-ending injuries: a torn biceps in 2022 and a torn patellar tendon in training camp ahead of the 2025 campaign. But if you take out his limited 2022 season, his PFF WAR average each year is right up there with the likes of Tristan Wirfs and Lane Johnson.
Slater was also coming off his best season, featuring a 90.9 PFF overall grade, in 2024. As long as he has a chance to get back to being fully healthy, he’s one of the most valuable tackles in the game.
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8. Carolina Panthers: T Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech (Round 1, Pick 23)
Original Pick: CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina
Like Slater, Darrisaw has dealt with injuries, which makes his placement on this list a challenge. He missed time as a rookie in 2021 and sat out for half of 2024 after suffering a torn ACL and MCL. When healthy, he’s dominant. He has earned single-season PFF overall grades of 90.4, 82.4 and 81.4 in the past three seasons.
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9. Denver Broncos: C Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma (Round 2, Pick 63)
Original Pick: CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama
Humphrey stands as one of the best players from the 2021 class. His 2.05 PFF WAR over the past four seasons ranks third among the draft's non-quarterbacks, behind only Micah Parsons and Patrick Surtain II. He has earned PFF overall grades above 89.0 in three of his four seasons of play.
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10. Dallas Cowboys: WR Nico Collins, Michigan (Round 3, Pick 89)
Original Pick: WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama
The next three receivers in this redraft — Collins, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle — are very close in value, PFF grades and PFF WAR over their first four years. Collins gets the nod as the first one taken due to his highs — elite PFF receiving grades of 91.2 and 92.3 in the past two seasons — and his trajectory.
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11. New York Giants: WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama (Round 1, Pick 10)
Original Pick: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State
Smith is the most steady wide out between him, Nico Collins and Jaylen Waddle. He has played more than 1,000 snaps in each of his first four seasons and has yet to earn a single-season PFF receiving grade below 77.0.
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12. Philadelphia Eagles: WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama (Round 1, Pick 6)
Original Pick: EDGE Micah Parsons, Penn State
The speed element of Waddle's game will always make him alluring. He averaged 20.0 mph or more on his five fastest plays in a season for three of his first four years. He also earned an elite 90.6 PFF receiving grade in 2023 before taking a small step back in 2024. It was nothing too worrisome to move him further down this redraft, but that’s why he is third off the board after Nico Collins and DeVonta Smith.
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13. Los Angeles Chargers: G Landon Dickerson, Alabama (Round 2, Pick 37)
Original Pick: T Rashawn Slater, Northwestern
Dickerson has been an impact interior blocker since his rookie season. He has played more than 1,000 snaps and earned a single-season PFF overall grade above 69.0 in each of his four years. The Chargers secured a great player in Slater at this spot in 2021, but Dickerson still would have improved their offensive line.
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14. Minnesota Vikings: TE Kyle Pitts, Florida (Round 1, Pick 4)
Original Pick: G Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
Pitts may not have lived up to the hype of a typical No. 4 overall pick, falling short in a stacked draft class, but that doesn’t mean he’s been a bust. He has still produced 1.22 PFF WAR over the past four years, which ranks 10th among all tight ends.
2024 was Pitts' worst season by PFF receiving grade, but the best may still be yet to come for the talented tight end with Michael Penix Jr. now at quarterback in Atlanta. He would have fit in well in Minnesota's offense in 2021.
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15. New England Patriots: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State (Round 1, Pick 11)
Original Pick: QB Mac Jones, Alabama
The Patriots didn’t originally have the chance to select Justin Fields, who was off the board at pick No. 11. Mac Jones ended up as the fifth of five first-round quarterbacks, although he never panned out in New England after a promising rookie campaign.
Though Fields has been up-and-down as a passer, with a turnover-worthy play rate above 3.4% in three of his four seasons, he was also in a tumultuous situation in Chicago. I always wanted Bill Belichick to get his hands on a quarterback with the dual-threat ability that Fields possesses. He owns PFF rushing grades above 72.0 in each of his first four seasons, including an elite 91.5 mark in 2022. Perhaps with Belichick as his head coach, Fields finds his way in the NFL and grows into a reliable starting quarterback.
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16. Arizona Cardinals: EDGE Greg Rousseau, Miami (FL) (Round 1, Pick 30)
Original Pick: EDGE Zaven Collins, Tulsa
Collins didn’t live up to the billing of being the 16th overall pick in 2021, but there were a lot of indecisions with where to play him between off- and on-ball linebacker. Rousseau has been versatile for the Bills in all the right ways. He can align anywhere from defensive tackle to stand-up outside linebacker. He has earned a single-season PFF overall grade above 80.0 in each of the past three seasons.
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17. Las Vegas Raiders: T Spencer Brown, Northern Iowa (Round 3, Pick 94)
Original Pick: T Alex Leatherwood, Alabama
Brown has been excellent, especially as of late. He notched a 77.3 PFF pass-blocking grade and an 83.5 PFF run-blocking grade in 2024, and he was the 12th-most-valuable offensive tackle in the league according to PFF WAR.
Brown would have been a better addition to the Raiders’ offensive line than Leatherwood.
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18. Miami Dolphins: G Quinn Meinerz, Wisconsin-Whitewater (Round 3, Pick 99)
Original Pick: EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami (FL)
Meinerz has come into his own as of late. He boasts one of the highest PFF WAR totals of any offensive lineman from this class over the past four years (1.07), along with PFF run-blocking grades above 85.0 in each of the past two seasons. The Dolphins have been struggling to find the right offensive line pieces for a long time. Meinerz would have been an answer at one of those spots.
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19. Washington: G Trey Smith, Tennessee (Round 6, Pick 227)
Original Pick: LB Jamin Davis, Kentucky
Some might say Smith’s success is a product of the Chiefs‘ offense. Sure, it hasn't hurt to play with Joe Thuney and Creed Humphrey, but Smith has created his own success within a unit that has been so dominant. He has earned a 70.0 PFF overall and run-blocking grade in each of his four NFL seasons.
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20. Chicago Bears: CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina (Round 1, Pick 8)
Original Pick: WR Kadarius Toney, Florida
It's difficult to say whether the Panthers regret drafting Horn, given how talented he is as a key piece of a burgeoning secondary. But he has yet to play a full season, with 2024 representing his highest workload yet (more than 1,000 snaps in 15 games, although with a career-low 57.7 PFF coverage grade).
Still, if the Bears could have drafted Horn and paired him with Jaylon Johnson, it would have set up a high-potential outside cornerback duo.
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21. Indianapolis Colts: EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami (FL) (Round 1, Pick 18)
Original Pick: EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan
When healthy, Phillips is an impactful player. In his lone full season of play, 2022, he earned a 90.1 PFF pass-rush grade across more than 1,000 snaps. The issue is availability. In 2023, Phillips tore his Achilles. And in 2024, he partially tore his ACL.
He has been one of the best pass rushers in the class and would still likely be a worthy player for the Colts to draft, but his outlook is cloudy.
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22. Tennessee Titans: CB Tyson Campbell, Georgia (Round 2, Pick 33)
Original Pick: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech
Campbell is a talented outside cornerback who has logged good PFF run-defense grades, but he has just one season with a 64.0-plus PFF coverage grade, so it’s hard to put him much higher in this redraft. The best may be yet to come for Campbell, though, and the Titans needed outside cornerback help badly in 2021.
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23. New York Jets: G Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC, USC (Round 1, Pick 14)
Original Pick: T Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
The Jets originally drafted Vera-Tucker after trading up, and it’s hard to argue they haven’t been happy about his performance. Vera-Tucker has racked up 0.55 PFF WAR for his career with a high floor, even despite switching positions. He has earned a 71.0 PFF overall grade in each of the past three seasons.
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24. Pittsburgh Steelers: C Drew Dalman, Stanford (Round 4, Pick 115)
Original Pick: RB Najee Harris, Alabama
With Creed Humphrey developing into far and away the best center from the 2021 class, Dalman hasn’t received the recognition he deserves. In the Falcons' zone-blocking scheme, he posted 0.66 PFF WAR through the first four years of his career. In three of those seasons of play, he earned a 78.0-plus PFF overall grade. And in two, his PFF run-blocking grade surged past 90.0.
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25. Jacksonville Jaguars: CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern (Round 1, Pick 26)
Original Pick: RB Travis Etienne Jr., Clemson
It feels as though Newsome has flown under the radar. His 1.14 career PFF WAR trails only Patrick Surtain II among the 2021 class' cornerbacks. He earned a PFF coverage grade above 70.0 in each of his first three seasons while splitting time evenly between the slot and outside cornerback.
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26. Cleveland Browns: CB Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State (Round 2, Pick 47)
Original Pick: CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern
Samuel is another player whose consistency deserves more recognition. His cumulative 1.11 PFF WAR ranks third among the 2021 class' cornerbacks. That figure is heavily reliant on his 2022 and 2023 seasons, in which he played more than 1,000 snaps with PFF coverage grades above 75.0. A neck/shoulder injury cost him most of his 2024 campaign.
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27. Baltimore Ravens: DI Alim McNeill, North Carolina State (Round 3, Pick 72)
Original Pick: WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
McNeill has outplayed his third-round selection from 2021 with ascending PFF WAR marks: 00.2 in 2021, 0.11 in 2022, 0.19 in 2023 and 0.24 in 2024. He was the Lions' most valuable interior defender this past season.
McNeill's PFF pass-rush grades have remained above 70.0 in each season of his career, including 78.6 and 77.1 figures in 2023 and 2024.
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28. New Orleans Saints: G Sam Cosmi, Texas (Round 2, Pick 51)
Original Pick: EDGE Payton Turner, Houston
Cosmi has thrived at tackle and guard for Washington since the franchise drafted him in 2021. His career workload includes 1,004 snaps at right tackle and 2,473 at right guard.
The Saints went into the 2021 season with Erik McCoy, Cesar Ruiz and Calvin Throckmorton as their interior players. Cosmi would have started over Throckmorton while providing tackle flexibility moving forward.
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29. Green Bay Packers: CB Deommodore Lenoir, Oregon (Round 5, Pick 173)
Original Pick: CB Eric Stokes, Georgia
Lenoir was one of the better slot cornerbacks in the league in 2024 after playing on the outside for most of his NFL career. He has earned a 73.0-plus PFF run-defense grade in two of his past three years, and 70.0-plus PFF coverage grades in each of the past two.
Lenoir's versatility and run-defense floor make him a desirable defender in any secondary. The Packers needed that at the time.
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30. Buffalo Bills: DI Milton Williams, Louisiana Tech (Round 3, Pick 73)
Original Pick: EDGE Greg Rousseau, Miami (FL)
If it's to be believed that Milton's 2024 campaign is his new normal, then he should be picked much higher in this redraft. His 0.31 PFF WAR in 2024 ranked sixth in the league last season. While his 91.7 PFF pass-rush grade was incredibly impressive, his 41.0 PFF run-defense grade left a lot to be desired. We’ll see how well-rounded Milton's game can be with the Patriots in 2025 and beyond.
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31. Baltimore Ravens: S Jevon Holland, Oregon (Round 2, Pick 36)
Original Pick: EDGE Odafe Oweh, Penn State
Holland sneaks in at the end of this redraft, which would have been hard to believe if we did this exercise a year or two ago. Unfortunately, his PFF WAR numbers have steadily declined, starting with 0.35 in 2021 and ending with 0.07 in 2024. Still, he has posted very good PFF coverage grades in two of his four seasons, 87.7 in 2021 and 89.9 in 2023.
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32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame (Round 2, Pick 52)
Original Pick: EDGE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Washington
The Buccaneers had Devin White with Lavonte David in their linebacker room at the time of this draft, but as we now know, that was not for the long haul. They have since been searching for a long-term answer at linebacker.
JOK posted single-season PFF WAR marks of 0.25 in 2023 and 0.25 in 2021, good for sixth best and 12th best at the position. He also earned a 76.0 PFF overall grade in three of his four seasons, as well as a 91.7 PFF run-defense grade in 2024. Owusu-Koramoah is set to miss all of 2025 with a neck injury, which does cloud his projection moving forward.