Arch Manning enters 2025 with just two starts in his college career. Despite the small sample size, he is an early Heisman favorite and a premier prospect at the next level. Texas enters the season as the top-ranked team in the country, fresh off back-to-back College Football Playoff semifinal appearances. Manning is a huge reason for the Longhorns’ lofty preseason expectations. He was the number one player in the Class of 2023, and arguably the most anticipated prospect in college football history. After redshirting in 2023, Manning saw some action in 2024 while filling in for an injured Quinn Ewers. He finished the year with 939 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions.
There’s been a lot of buzz surrounding Manning and what his decision will be regarding the 2026 NFL Draft. He will likely be one of the most sought-after prospects in college football, but will he turn pro after just one season as a starter?
Will Arch Manning Declare for the 2026 NFL Draft?
Why He Will
Manning has been on the NFL’s radar ever since his high school career at Isidore Newman (Louisiana). The combination of his elite traits and family pedigree made him a noteworthy prospect before committing to Texas. The Longhorns are a top contender in 2025, and Manning’s supporting cast should allow him to live up to the hype. He is viewed as a consensus first-round pick without even playing a full season. There’s a strong chance Manning has an excellent 2025 campaign, which will only improve his already high draft stock. He may very well be the clear-cut first pick in 2026, meaning he can’t improve his draft stock by returning to Texas.
How the draft order shakes out may also be a critical factor in Manning’s decision. The Saints are a prime candidate to be the worst team in football this season. Manning grew up in New Orleans, and his grandfather, Archie Manning, played the majority of his career with the franchise. The Colts are another team that could be near the top of the board come April. Like the Saints, Indianapolis has ties to the Manning family, with Peyton Manning spending 14 seasons of his Hall of Fame career with the Colts.
Manning Giants
Nov 9, 2024; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) escapes Florida Gators defensive back Trikweze Bridges (7) while looking to pass during the second half at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images
Why He Won’t
Manning checks all the boxes that NFL teams are looking for in a franchise quarterback. He has the arm talent, size, and mobility to be a player who can change the trajectory of a franchise. The most significant question mark surrounding him is experience. While Manning would probably be a first-round pick if he declared in 2026, he may not be the first quarterback off the board with just one season of starting. The lack of starts relative to other top signal-callers in this class may cause general managers to be hesitant.
The family history is also a sign that Manning is staying at Texas. His uncles, Peyton and Eli Manning, both opted to return to college when they could have entered the draft. Both were already multi-year starters by the time they were eligible, yet chose to stay in school. Archie also recently said that his grandson won’t declare for the 2026 NFL Draft. If Texas doesn’t win the National Championship this year, Manning may choose to return for another crack at the title.
Verdict
Several factors can determine whether Manning decides to declare after the 2025 season. His individual performance, the Longhorns’ performance as a team, among other factors can sway the decision one way or another. While a strong case can be made for Manning to leave for the NFL, there’s more evidence to suggest he’ll return to Austin in 2026. Starting for a second season gives him more time to develop and eliminates any concern about experience. With NIL, the best college football players no longer have to wait for the NFL to capitalize on their talent. There’s still a whole season that has to be played, but it appears Manning will likely return to Texas in 2026.
Main Image: Brett Davis-Imagn Images