The Premier League is back, and we are too, returning with our weekly dose of hastily made conclusions from a single round of top-flight fixtures.
Here at Opta Analyst, we tend to do everything we can to avoid knee-jerk reactions. We normally base all of our judgement calls on big data sets. That means we usually avoid making statements that someone with more and better data can disprove at a later date.
But sometimes we like to have a bit of fun and be just a little bit reactive. We can’t all be perfect like our trusted, all-knowing Opta supercomputer, can we?
With that in mind, we’re doing as we did last season and starting off the campaign with a weekly column after each round of fixtures, where we come to some quickly made conclusions. We’re going rogue once again: knee-jerk reactions is back for another year.
So, here are six statements from the opening round of Premier League fixtures, based on less data than we’d say is usually reasonable to base any kind of judgement on. Apologies in advance.
The Old Man City are Back
After the disappointment of last season when Manchester City lost four more times (16) than they had in any other season under Pep Guardiola and only just scraped a third-place finish, it was difficult to say for sure what we should expect of them this time around.
Was this a sign of terminal decline under their legendary manager, or would the tens of millions spent in the summer revitalise the squad and get their underperforming stars swiftly back to their best?
On the evidence of Saturday’s 4-0 mauling of Wolves, it appears as though the latter is true.
Wolves 0-4 man city stats
In Tijjani Reijnders and Rayan Cherki, City had two players score on their Premier League debut in the same match for the first time since August 2007 (Geovanni and Rolando Bianchi). Reijnders also became just the second City player to both score and assist on their Premier League debut after Sergio Agüero in August 2011.
Erling Haaland looked back to his normal, ruthless self, too, something we saw far too little of last term. After his brace, he has now scored 2+ goals in 21 different Premier League games, which is at least nine more times than any other player since he moved to England in the summer of 2022. He also now has 10 Premier League goals against Wolves – more than he has against any other club.
City generated a higher expected goals total (2.47) than any other team on Matchday 1 and, perhaps most crucially, they restricted their opponents to just nine shots and 0.56 xG.
The old City are back. It’s as though they never went away.
We’ve Got a Relegation Battle!
For the last two seasons, the three promoted clubs have been relegated. It’s the first time in the history of men’s English football that this has happened in back-to-back top-flight campaigns.
The big fear for those who insist we have the best league in the world is that it starts to become a closed shop; that the promoted clubs are relegated year on year, while the 17 Premier League clubs who have avoided relegation in the last two years remain forever. Nobody wants to see their team relegated, but there needs to be some peril for teams in the bottom half of the table. Last season, there was so little peril that Spurs, who eventually finished 17th, were basically able to give up on the Premier League to focus on Europe, safe in the knowledge that they wouldn’t be relegated.
Fortunately enough, after this weekend’s action, we reckon this season could produce a proper relegation battle.
Sunderland, back in the top flight for the first time since 2017, ran out 3-0 winners over West Ham, who might just be involved in the fight against the drop themselves. Sunderland have done a lot of work in the transfer market over the summer, but it was three players who were already at the club who scored the goals, with Eliezer Mayenda, Dan Ballard and Wilson Isidor finding the net. Although they were all at the club last season, it was each player’s Premier League debut, and Sunderland became the first team to have three players score on their top-flight debut in the same match since Reading against Middlesbrough in August 2006.
Burnley might have lost 3-0 to Tottenham, meanwhile, but they made a real game of it against the Europa League champions. Scott Parker’s side didn’t show quite the defensive solidity for which they became known in the Championship last term, but they will surely improve on that front, and they caused Spurs problems at the other end, registering 14 shots and spurning some really good opportunities.
Then, on Monday, Leeds United dominated Everton from start to finish in a 1-0 win. They didn’t look anything like the promoted side; there was no imposter syndrome. They just looked like they belong in the top flight.
It all means this is just the third season in Premier League history in which two of the promoted clubs have won on MD 1. Last season, it took the three promoted clubs five matchdays to win six points – the collective amount Sunderland and Leeds have won already. No promoted side even won a game last season until 5 October.
3 – Through Leeds and Sunderland, 2025-26 has become just the third season in Premier League history to see as many as two newly promoted sides win on MD1 after 1997-98 (Bolton & Crystal Palace) and 2021-22 (Brentford & Watford). Arrival. pic.twitter.com/GhDGb8x33X
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) August 18, 2025
This season’s relegation battle might just provide some entertainment. Lucky us.
Liverpool Don’t Need Isak
It isn’t overreactive to say that if Liverpool were to strengthen anywhere before the transfer window closes, they should probably focus on the defence first. They signed 18-year-old Giovanni Leoni last week, but they still look rather short at the back.
In the opening game of the season on Friday night, Ibrahima Konaté was pretty shaky at the heart of the Liverpool defence. He was caught out of position on a handful of occasions and turned his back on Antoine Semenyo criminally for Bournemouth’s equaliser. He can be far better than that, but if he endures some poor form, manager Arne Slot might not be too happy that his only other options are the inexperienced Leoni and the injury-prone Joe Gomez.
At the other end of the pitch, there were no such problems. Liverpool scored four goals, with new signing Hugo Ekitiké the star of the show as he got a goal and an assist, Cody Gakpo getting the second, the irrepressible Mohamed Salah scoring his obligatory opening-day goal and even Federico Chiesa grabbing one. Florian Wirtz will only get better and Harvey Elliott didn’t even come off the bench.
Hugo Ekitike shots vs Bournemouth
If the rumour mill is to be believed, Liverpool want to add Alexander Isak, quite possibly the most complete centre-forward in the world, to their attack before the summer is out. Perhaps that might be unnecessary?
Few teams on the planet would turn down the opportunity to add Isak, but if Liverpool were to sign him, Ekitiké would get far fewer opportunities in his best position where, as he showed on Friday, he is a formidable option. He became only the second Liverpool player to both score and assist a goal on his Premier League debut (Darwin Núñez against Fulham in August 2022).
Do Liverpool really want to pay as much as £150 million for a striker to reduce the chances that a £69m+ striker, who can clearly cut it at this level, gets? Spending that much on Isak could hamstring them in the transfer market for years.
Maybe when you get the chance to sign a player like this, you should just do whatever it takes to get him. But maybe the Premier League champions have enough already and can afford to pass this opportunity up.
Forest Are Ready for Another Champions League Challenge
Nottingham Forest lost one of their best players over the summer when Anthony Elanga left for Newcastle. When news came through that another, Morgan Gibbs-White, was seemingly heading to Tottenham, there was a feeling of the inevitable about an imminent fall after the highs of last season.
In 2024-25, Forest threatened to qualify for the Champions League. They ultimately couldn’t sustain their challenge but ended up finishing seventh, which still represented an awfully good season for them.
It was reasonable to suggest that this term they might drop back to a more modest position in the table, not least because Opta’s expected points model (which is based on expected goals data) reckoned Forest deserved to finished 14th last season.
But even though this is a different season, it’s clearly the same old Forest. In their 3-1 win over Brentford to get the season started this weekend, they were typically efficient. They scored with three of their first seven shots and the game was over by half-time. For a third season in a row, Chris Wood scored with his first shot of the league campaign.
Nottingham Forest xG map
Nuno Espírito Santo will have to balance playing in European competition, which will be a new challenge, but this team is arguably stronger after a year of playing (well) together and they look ready to go again in 2025-26.
Everton Could Be in Trouble… Again
Everton headed into the new season with some reasons to be excited.
There’s a new-look midfield, including serial winner Jack Grealish, and a promising goalscoring centre-forward in Thierno Barry. There’s also a new stadium to look forward to moving into.
But against Leeds on Monday night in their season opener, David Moyes’ side looked totally disjointed. It took until well into the second half for them to muster their first shot of the game, a wild, off-target effort from distance from defensive midfielder Idrissa Gueye, who is hardly there to be having shots.
They managed just seven shots in total, the second-lowest tally by any team over the weekend, only ahead of Aston Villa, who spent a third of their game down to 10 men. Oh, and they were playing Newcastle, and not promoted Leeds.
Leeds 1-0 Everton xg race
Everton didn’t look like they really knew what the game plan was once they got the ball. They were reasonably solid at the back, only finally broken down by a late Lukas Nmecha penalty, but they offered so little with the ball that there was cause for concern. Their front four players had two shots between them. Centre-forward Beto was almost completely anonymous.
Grealish and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall may need some time to settle in and get used to playing with this team. There will be other new signings. Beto surely won’t be a passenger like this in many other games.
But Everton need to be much better than this or they could be sucked into trouble once again.
Richarlison and Muniz Should Be Starters
Two Brazilian forwards who may well want more game time this season, Richarlison and Rodrigo Muniz, are staking early-season claims for starting berths at their respective clubs.
Richarlison followed up a sterling display in the UEFA Super Cup for Spurs with two expertly taken goals in the 3-0 win over Burnley, while Muniz struck a last-gasp equaliser to earn Fulham a draw at Brighton. Neither was a starter last season, but they could be this time around.
Richarlison xG map
They started just 12 Premier League games between them last term (though injuries were a big part of that for Richarlison) but surely deserve more opportunities in 2025-26.
Richarlison, in particular, will have his eye on making the Brazil squad for the World Cup next summer. A decent season for Muniz, and he could even sneak into the conversation.
Staying fit is the issue for the Spurs number nine, while for the Fulham man, it is about translating his form as a substitute to the games he starts. Last season, of players to score 5+ Premier League goals, only Jhon Durán (89.4) and Mohamed Salah (116.5) averaged fewer minutes per goal than Muniz (118.9). He only came off the bench after 66 minutes at the weekend and scored Fulham’s solitary goal at the death; since the start of last season, he has more Premier League goals as a substitute (seven) than anyone else.
Maybe he deserves a bit more game time. So, should both of these Brazilians be their respective clubs’ starting strikers going forward?
Premier League Stats Opta
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over onX, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.******