Steph Curry, Jonathan Kuminga, Warriors
Getty
Jonathan Kuminga watches Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors do his "Night Night" celebration.
How the long-drawn stalemate between the Golden State Warriors and restricted free agent Jonathan Kuminga ends is anyone’s guess.
For now, the Warriors remain dug in, unwilling to surrender full control of Kuminga’s future. But Bleacher Report’s Dan Favale predicts the franchise will eventually cave, not the 22-year-old forward.
“One of these sides is going to blink first. And it’s going to be the Warriors,” Favale wrote.
The Contract Standoff
Jonathan Kuminga, Warriors
Getty Jonathan Kuminga of the Golden State Warriors dunks the ball against the Chicago Bulls.
The battle centers around one clause: who controls the second year of a two-year, $45 million contract. Golden State insists it must be a team option. Kuminga and his camp are pushing for a player option, which would allow him to hit free agency as soon as 2026.
“Letting Kuminga sign his qualifying offer would be disastrous,” Favale warned. “He would be freshly angry and have the right to veto any trade, and his next team wouldn’t own his Bird rights. That eliminates any possibility of Golden State receiving adequate compensation for his services.”
Kuminga’s threat to sign the $7.9 million qualifying offer looms over the negotiations. If he follows through, the Warriors risk losing a former No. 7 pick for nothing next summer. Favale’s prediction is simple: the Warriors will give in and grant the player option.
“Short of juicing his annual salary into the $30 million range, a two-year contract with a team option will end up being out of the question,” Favale wrote. “Prediction: Jonathan Kuminga re-signs with the Warriors on a two-year, $45 million deal, with a player option for 2026-27.”
A Game of Leverage
NBA insider Jake Fischer previously reported that stance earlier this month, noting that Kuminga’s camp is ready to accept the current offer if Golden State flips the second year in his favor.
“I think Jonathan Kuminga’s side would take this one-plus-one situation … if he were to get a player option in year two,” Fischer said on the “NBA Insider Notebook” livestream on Aug. 7. “But I was told yesterday (Aug. 6) from various sources that Golden State is going to be holding firm that the second year is going to be a team option. And that’s kind of where the staring contest is at.”
The issue is leverage.
A player option means no team would trade meaningful assets for Kuminga without a long-term commitment. A team option, meanwhile, gives the Warriors control and flexibility in trade talks.
That control has already shaped conversations. Golden State has been holding out for an unprotected first-round pick and a quality rotation player.
Trade Market Still Circling
Bobby Portis, Bucks
Getty Bobby Portis was the sticking point in the Milwaukee Bucks trade talks for Jonathan Kuminga.
Multiple teams have tested Golden State’s resolve. The Sacramento Kings dangled Malik Monk and a protected first, per The Athletic’s Sam Amick, while the Phoenix Suns pitched Royce O’Neale, Nick Richards and a stockpile of second-rounders, per Andscape’s Marc J. Spears.
Both packages were turned away.
Even the Milwaukee Bucks checked in, but backed off after the Warriors asked for Bobby Portis, per ClutchPoints’ Brett Siegel.
For now, the trade market is frozen by the same stalemate stalling Kuminga’s contract. Teams won’t overpay without clarity on his future, and the Warriors won’t back down unless the risk of losing him becomes too great.
Who Blinks First?
Kuminga’s future in Golden State hangs on a single detail that neither side seems ready to compromise on. The Warriors believe team control is essential. Kuminga’s camp sees a player option as non-negotiable.
Favale predicts the Warriors will fold. But the question remains: will they stubbornly call Kuminga’s bluff, or risk losing him for nothing?