The Vikings almost certainly aren't going to win as many games in 2025 as they did last season. That's just what happens when you go 14-3 without a transcendent, MVP-caliber quarterback; it's quite hard to win that many games. There's also no real precedent to a team winning 14 games and then letting its QB walk out the door in favor of a younger, less proven option, which is what makes this season such a fascinating one for Kevin O'Connell's team.
Unsurprisingly, the Vikings are one of five teams that ESPN's Bill Barnwell predicts will decline this year. He notes that they were 8-1 in one-score games last season and have both a tougher schedule and a less certain QB situation this year, which are all fair points. But Barnwell also doesn't think the Vikings — who he calls a "pretty unique team" — will regress to the extent that they (predictably) did from 2022 to 2023. He said he could see them going more like 11-6 this year, which I think all Vikings fans would be quite pleased with in the first year of the McCarthy era.
Others think the regression will be more extreme. Two NFL.com analysts, in an article predicting the result of every game in the 2025 season, have the Vikings finishing below .500 and in last place in the hyper-competitive NFC North. Both Ali Bhanpuri and Adam Rank have Minnesota starting 3-2 and then going through a 2-7 stretch in the middle of the season before picking up some wins late.
Here's how Bhanpuri has the division shaking out:
Packers: 11-6
Lions: 9-8
Bears: 8-9
Vikings: 8-9
And here's how Rank — who is famously biased as a diehard Bears fan — sees it:
Bears: 11-6
Packers: 10-7
Lions: 8-9
Vikings: 7-10
The Vegas win totals, which are a more neutral view of the situation, have the Lions at 10.5 wins, the Packers and Vikings at 9.5, and the Bears at 8.5. Detroit clearly still deserves to be favored in the division, but losing both coordinators creates some questions. The Vikings obviously have questions surrounding them, starting with J.J. McCarthy. So do the Packers, who were the third team in the division to make the playoffs last season. The Bears have plenty of theoretical upside, but it's still all theoretical.
Vikings-Bears in Chicago on Monday, September 8 is going to be a very fun and interesting way to wrap up Week 1 of the 2025 regular season.