Football finance expert Chris Weatherspoon explains the ‘measured gamble’ behind Sunderland’s £150m+ summer transfer spree
Sunderland’s £150million summer transfer spree has stunned the Premier League — but football finance expert and lifelong Black Cats supporter Chris Weatherspoon insists the club’s approach under Kyril Louis-Dreyfus represents a “measured gamble” rather than reckless spending.
“The team that started in the play-off final cost less than £10million to assemble,” Weatherspoon said. “Rian Brewster, on the other side, cost more than double that. They got promoted relatively cheaply, and I think that’s why there’s been surprise at how much they’ve spent this summer. I didn’t expect them to spend this much — and apparently it’s my job to.”
Weatherspoon believes Sunderland’s previous restraint in the transfer market has been crucial in allowing them to invest aggressively this summer. “I think there might have been one deal prior to getting promoted where they’d spent over £3million, and that’s not clear,” he explained. “So I think there’s that, but I think in terms of the rules, that’s given them the space to do that.”
Interestingly, Sunderland’s four seasons in League One have actually given them an unexpected financial advantage compared to some long-term Championship clubs. “Despite being out of the Premier League for eight years, they’ve almost benefited from being in League One for four of them,” Weatherspoon said.
He continued on the subject: “In League One, okay, they still lost money. But the best way to put this is if you’re in the Championship for any length of time, you’re going to lose an absolute fortune because of the amount of wages you need to compete.”
The Black Cats’ short stay in the Championship also kept their financial losses comparatively low. “They were only in the Championship for three years,” Weatherspoon continued. “So they hadn’t built up the sort of level of loss that other clubs had.
“If you look, Forest have been the one who Sunderland have been compared to, and I think quite a few people have gone, ‘Well, you know, they’ll be in PSR trouble because Forest came up and spent a fortune.’ The difference is when Forest came up, they came up on the back of losing.
“I haven’t got the figures in front of me, but I want to say it was in the range of £50million to £60million over the two years before they came up. Sunderland’s is, we don’t know what they lost the promotion year, but the year before that they lost £9million. So it’s an order of magnitude lower.”
Another key factor underpinning Sunderland’s aggressive transfer strategy is the Premier League’s lucrative broadcast income. “Even if they were to finish bottom this year, they should earn about £110million,” Weatherspoon explained.
That financial security has allowed Sunderland to push the boundaries this summer while remaining strategic. “They’re taking what I would call a bit of a measured gamble,” he said. “And I think probably the best way to illustrate that is to look at the profile of players they bought.
“Okay, they bought Xhaka, they bought the new centre-half, so two new defenders actually were 27 and 28, I think. So they spent money on three older players there, which they haven’t really done before. But then if you look at the bulk of what they spent this summer, they’re all under the age of 24, 23, 22, 21.”
For Weatherspoon, the strategy is clear: invest heavily in high-potential players who will retain value even in the event of relegation. “I think what the measured gamble is here — and again, I’m sure nobody at the club would admit to this — but if they were to get relegated, I think they’re probably banking on the fact that they’ll be able to sell these players for good money next summer. And then, so the risk isn’t as high.
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“We see it every year now. Every year, the three teams that come down, they’re the biggest sellers in the Championship because they’ll have two, three, or four players who have looked the part in the Premier League, even though they got relegated.”
Weatherspoon also highlighted the wider trend of parachute-payment clubs dominating the Championship transfer market. “I was looking at it earlier today – Championship clubs have sold players so far this summer for £280million, two-thirds of that has gone to the four clubs who’ve got parachute payments,” he added.
Ultimately, he believes Sunderland’s current model strikes the right balance between ambition and sustainability. “That’s the thing, you know, it’s almost like just by virtue of getting to the Premier League, it sets you up, even if you do go down,” Weatherspoon said. “And so I think, don’t get me wrong, look, if they all turn out to be absolutely dreadful, it’s a gamble that hasn’t paid off — but I think that’s what they’re doing.”
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