Maybe Wilt really did block 8+ shots per game.
Maybe Wilt really did block 8+ shots per game.
Yes, I’m still writing about Wilt Chamberlain and blocked shots. It’s the offseason, which is the time to dig into esoteric stuff like this. We’ll return to regularly scheduled Statistical Doppelganger Machine articles soon.
So, in the comments of part one, ExPatDE sparked a couple ideas for different approaches to estimating blocks for Chamberlain. Estimates are the only thing we can do to get a read on numbers from those areas because the NBA didn’t start tracking blocks (and steals) until 1973-74. They didn’t record turnovers until 1977-78.
When it comes to outlandish block numbers, Manute Bol is the all-time leader. Among his feats, he holds the all-time single season record for block percentage (percentage of opponent FGA blocked while on the floor) at 10.81%, which he did TWICE!
The 10% mark has been surpassed only five times in recorded NBA history — three times by Bol, and twice by Victor Wembanyama.
So, what if Chamberlain was just as good at blocking shots as Bol or Wembanyama? Apply that 10.8% block percentage to Chamberlain’s era and minutes, and it translates to about 10.3 blocks per game over the course of his entire career. His peak could have been as high as 11.6 per game in 1960-61 and 1961-62. It’s possible Chambrerlain averaged 50 points, 25 rebounds, and 11+ blocks per game that nutso 61-62 season.
Now, is 10.8% block percentage applied over his entire career plausible? Kinda-sorta maybe. Manute’s career average was 10.2%. That would work out to a career average of 9.7 per game, including around 8-9 blocks per game in the late 60s and early 70s (around that 112 game sample). And Bol did last 10 seasons, though he didn’t play much his last couple years.
On the other hand, Chamberlain’s modern day comp is usually Shaquille O’Neal, who had a 4.6% block percentage. That equates to about 4.4 blocks per game in Chamberlain’s era and minutes. Dwight Howard’s career block percentage was 4.4%. When I last ran my era translator, the closest modern comp was Embiid...who had a 4.4% block percentage.
A few other block percentages from dominant defensive big men and all-time shot blockers:
Hakeem Olajuwon: 5.4%.
David Robinson: 5.7%
Ben Wallace: 5.0%
Shawn Bradley: 7.8%
Theo Ratliff: 7.2%
Myles Turner: 6.6%
Alonzo Mourning: 6.6%
Dikembe Mutombo: 6.3%
Now, it could be that Chamberlain blocked a lot more shots because there was no three-point shot, so everyone was trying to get to the rim pretty much all the time. And, even in the modern game, there’s Wembanyama’s two seasons with a 10+% block percentage in the three-point era.
So, you know...I’m not saying Chamberlain blocked 9+ blocks per game, but I think it’s plausible that he did given the era differences (pace, three-point line, no illegal defense), and the physical/athletic edge Chamberlain had.
One more piece: I found an old study (probably published 20+ years ago) by Roland Beech showing that around 15% of “close up” shots get blocked. Beech defined “close up” as “close to the rim.” He also had dunks in their own category, though he didn’t say whether close up included or excluded dunks.
There were likely deterrence effects — Chamberlain (and other bigs) could stay near the hoop to defend the game’s most valuable space — which could have reduced his blocks. But if Chamberlain had a block percentage of 8-10%, blocking 8-9 per game wouldn’t be out of the question given his playing time and the era differences.