The Portland Trail Blazers are embarking on an exciting new journey. Plenty of young, eager holdovers remain from their recent rebuild. To those are added veterans hoping to reestablish themselves as winners and key components in Portland. The opportunity is clear. So are the question marks. Today’s Blazer’s Edge Mailbag question encapsulates both nicely. Take a look!
I love the team’s new direction! I can’t help but notice a fair amount of skepticism and questioning coming from media and maybe even from you. I’m not mad. I understand completely because I don’t know what’s going to happen either. That excites me a lot! As I was putting myself in the other shoes I started to wonder what on this team I really am sure of. I admit I can’t find too much. I’m asking what you are sure of with this team. Maybe you can find something I didn’t?
First of all, I kind of like the unsurety. Like you, I find it more exciting than the near-predictability of the last 2-3 seasons. Plus, it gives never-ending fodder to write about. Pick a player and we could spend hours discussing potential ups and downs.
The scary thing is, variability extends to the deepest-seeded veterans just as much as the younger players. Damian Lillard is coming off of a serious injury. We have no proof he’ll ever play effectively again, let alone gauging a ceiling for him. Jrue Holiday is aging and looking to bounce back. Jerami Grant just came off one of the worst seasons of his career and needs to prove he’s the player he once was. Almost everybody on this roster evokes as many question marks as exclamation points!
If we look at the aggregate roster, I think we could make a few solid declarations. That’s way less fun than going micro and assessing players. We’ll be doing some in-depth looks at individuals as the season approaches, but for now let’s try an exercise.
I’m going to list the major players on Portland’s roster from least variable to most. Once you’ve seen my list, I’m going to invite you to make yours.
Note that variability does not equate to quality or talent. Just because a player ranks high on this list doesn’t mean they stand among the best players. They’re just more steady than others, even if it’s at a lower level of play. Also note that there are many ways to be variable. Age, injuries, production, history, and team fit all play a role.
So, then, here is my ranking of major Trail Blazers players, from least variable to most.
Toumani Camara
Jrue Holiday
Matisse Thybulle
Duop Reath
Deni Avdija
Donovan Clingan
Jerami Grant
Shaedon Sharpe
Scoot Henderson
Damian Lillard
Yang Hansen
Kris Murray
Rayan Rupert
Robert Williams III
Getting a little more granular, I would draw a line between Matisse Thybulle and Duop Reath to delineate the first-tier reliable players. I don’t know if Holiday can play at his old, peak level anymore but I presume he can maintain where he was last year with Boston. Thybulle had a season-eating injury but he’s steady otherwise.
The second tier comes between Duop Reath and Jerami Grant. Reath is gonna do what he does, always ready to contribute his loping stride and a little bit of defense in his spare minutes. Donovan Clingan and Deni Avdija got more reliable as the season progressed. Grant has been dependable up until last season. His drop last year takes him from first tier to second, as I’m not entirely sure what we’re going to get–or even where he’s going to play in the lineup–this season.
Then you have a narrow third band of Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson, and Lillard. The young guards might be on the rise. Lillard may not even play and, as we just said, we have no idea what his return will look like. It’s mostly out of respect for his history in Portland and Milwaukee that he’s not in the fourth tier.
That bottom group consists of rookie Yang Hansen, a couple of wings who seem to shift from night to night, plus Robert Williams III who could be anything from a starter to a complete non-factor depending on his injury status.
That’s my list. What’s yours? Share in the comments section below and tell me if, and where, I got it wrong!
Thanks for the question too! We’ll address more of these as we get closer to training camp. In the meantime, feel free to send your own questions to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to answer as many as possible!