Mikel Arteta will hope to make it two wins in as many Premier League games on Saturday. We preview the clash with our Arsenal vs Leeds prediction via the Opta supercomputer.
Arsenal vs Leeds: The Key Stats
Arsenal claimed all three points against Leeds in a dominant 70.4% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
Leeds United are winless in their last 14 meetings across all competitions against Arsenal (L12 D2), losing the last six in a row.
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 42 Premier League home games against promoted sides (W37 D5) and would match the competition record by avoiding defeat here.
Leeds United started their Premier League return with a hard-fought victory over Everton, but could soon be brought crashing back down to earth with Saturday’s trip to Arsenal.
Daniel Farke’s side face the daunting task of visiting the Gunners, who are unbeaten in their last 42 Premier League home games against newly-promoted sides (W37 D5).
Their last such defeat came in a 1-0 loss to Newcastle United way back in November 2010. Arsenal will equal the competition’s longest run without losing at home against promoted teams, 43 by Chelsea between 2001 and 2015, if they avoid a surprise defeat here.
Mikel Arteta will be confident of claiming all three points, too. He has faced Leeds more often without losing than any other side as Arsenal boss in all competitions (P8 W7 D1), winning all five at the Emirates Stadium.
His side head into their first home fixture of the 2025-26 campaign off the back of a narrow 1-0 win away to Manchester United last Sunday, thanks to Riccardo Calafiori‘s header at Old Trafford.
It was Arsenal’s 31st Premier League goal from a corner since the start of the 2023-24 season, 11 more than any other team. Their xG from set plays was also more than any other side on MD 1 (1.02).
Arsenal Goals from Corners
However, Arsenal’s open play xG on MD 1 was also the third lowest (0.28), ahead only of Aston Villa and Everton – the latter against Leeds – as Viktor Gyökeres underwhelmed on debut.
Gyökeres failed to attempt a single shot against United, making it the first time since the start of 2023-24 that he has not managed one in a top-flight league match.
Like Arsenal, Gyökeres may enjoy the visit of last season’s Championship winners, though. The Swedish striker was directly involved in 14 goals in 12 appearances against promoted sides in the Portuguese Primeira Liga, scoring nine and assisting five for Sporting CP.
He is expected to lead the line for the first time in league action at the Emirates, following this week’s news of Kai Havertz suffering a concerning knee injury. Christian Nørgaard will likely have to wait for his home bow due to a minor issue, while Gabriel Jesus is Arsenal’s only other long-term absentee.
The Gunners are widely reported to have won the race to sign England international Eberechi Eze from Crystal Palace ahead of rivals Tottenham. It’s unlikely they’ll secure his signature before this fixture, however, with Eze expected to play some part in Crystal Palace’s UEFA Conference League match against Fredrikstad on Thursday night.
Meanwhile, Leeds will be looking to win their opening two games in a Premier League season for the first time since 2002-03 under Terry Venables. The Whites secured a 1-0 victory against Everton on Monday, courtesy of Lukas Nmecha‘s late penalty at Elland Road.
Leeds 1-0 Everton Stats
Nmecha became just the second player to score a penalty on his debut for Leeds, along with Percy Whipp in 1922. He will be aiming to join Alan Smith (in 1998), Patrick Bamford and Mateusz Klich (both in 2020) as the only players to score in their first two Premier League appearances for the club.
Questions were posed over Farke’s tenure before this season started, but only Arteta and Manchester City’s Pep Guardiola are on longer current winning runs in the competition (three each).
However, a 2-1 victory over Brentford as Norwich City boss back in November 2021 is included in that two-game winning run for Farke, who had never achieved the feat before in this division.
In terms of team news, new striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin was deemed not ready to face his former club Everton but he could make his debut at the Emirates. Jaka Bijol will also return from a suspension carried over from his Serie A campaign with Udinese last campaign, while Ethan Ampadu is expected to shake off an ankle concern from Monday night.
A healthy squad will be required if Leeds are to overturn their woeful record in London, where they have lost 23 of their last 30 away league matches (W4 D3). Farke’s side have also lost their last seven Premier League matches in the English capital, since a 2-1 win at Brentford on the final day of 2021-22 to avoid relegation.
Arsenal vs Leeds Head-to-Head
This may be the time for Leeds supporters to look away.
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 14 meetings between these two in all competitions (W12 D2), winning each of the last six in a row.
Leeds have also lost 10 of their last 12 Premier League away games against Arsenal (W2), while they have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 14 such visits.
Their last Premier League trip to Arsenal ended in a 4-1 defeat back in April 2023, thanks to a double from Jesus, as well as goals for Ben White and Granit Xhaka.
Arsenal 4-1 Leeds Stats
Arsenal vs Leeds Prediction
The Opta supercomputer struggled to see past all three points ending up in the hands of Arsenal, who triumphed against Leeds in 70.4% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
An unlikely draw was rated at 17.2% in the same data-led sims, in which Leeds were only afforded a 12.5% chance of making it back-to-back wins in the competition.
Arsenal vs Leeds Prediction Opta Supercomputer
Arsenal vs Leeds Predicted Lineups
Arsenal: David Raya, Ben White, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Riccardo Calafiori, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Martin Ødegaard, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Viktor Gyökeres.
Leeds United: Lucas Perri, Jayden Bogle, Joe Rodon, Pascal Struijk, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Anton Stach, Ethan Ampadu, Daniel James, Ao Tanaka, Wilfried Gnonto, Joël Piroe.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Saturday at the Emirates Stadium, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Premier League Stats Opta
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