In eight years of crafting this series articles, there have been few rosters as difficult to determine the Final Cut as this one. Every decision hurts. Between recent injuries, players returning from injury, a jumbled RB room, and a mixed bag of backup cornerbacks, there are 60 worthy players for a 53-man roster. To put it another way, there are seven players who would make another team’s roster. Three short off-season ago, the number of “worthy” players was closer to 45….
This updated Rosterology has quite a few shifts. Brevin Jordan’s injury and the subsequent trade of John Metchie for Harrison Bryant shook up the TE room. The entire secondary depth is a folly to predict.
In a rare seismic shift, two roster spots have moved from the defense to the offense since the last publication. These spots go to Justin Watson and Dameon Pierce; neither of which have impressed this offseason.
Last Four In
Dameon Pierce, RB
D’Angelo Ross, CB
Justin Watson, WR
Jakob Johnson, FB/TE
First Four Out
Dare Ogumbowale, RB
Jamal Hill, LB
Tommy Togai, DT
Arthur Maulett, CB
Biggest Riser: Braxton Berrios, WR
The slot receiver seemed expendable after Houston added Jaylin Noel in the third round of the draft. However, he’s carved out an indispensable role as the best punt returner and safety valve for the second team offense. His route running and speed in an offense predicated on short, crisp passes is crucial to the system’s success. Plus, the trade of John Metchie III solidified his place on the roster.
Biggest Faller: Tommy Togiai, DT
Togiai lost his roster spot due to the return of Derek Barnett, Foley Fatukasi, and the addition of international player Haggai Ndubuisi. Ndubuisi can be on the 53-man roster and not count against the total with his exemption. These developments push Togiai off the roster and onto the practice squad, but don’t be surprised if he’s elevated in due time. The coaches love him.
With that, let’s get to the second-to-last prediction of the 53-man roster.
Offense (26)
Quarterbacks (2 + 1 emergency QB)
C.J. Stroud, Davis Mills
CUT: Kedon Slovis (emergency QB), Graham Mertz
Analysis: No changes here. Slovis is far-and-away the QB3 and has shown enough moxie to earn a roster spot on lesser offenses. Mills once again looked effective from the pocket against the Panthers.
Running Backs (5)
Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Woody Marks, Dameon Pierce, Jakob Johnson
CUT: Dare Ogumbowale, Jawhar Jordan, British Brooks
Analysis: Last week’s article predicted Mixon will start on IR, but a more likely outcome will be him missing the first week or so of the season. The decision to keep five or six RB is predicated on Joe Mixon’s health, though they kept six last year with a healthy Mixon.
This position presents multiple hard decision as it’s wildly unclearhow the team views Dameon Pierce. Pierce recently returned to practice and rotated with Nick Chubb amongst the starters.
The team values Ogumbowale’s blocking prowess and veteran leadership. Right now, he is the 54th man on the roster and I’d expect they keep him on the practice squad. It’s either him or Pierce at this point.
Texans released J.J. Taylor on Wednesday.
Wide Receivers (6)
Nico Collins, Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel, Christian Kirk, Xavier Hutchinson, Braxton Berrios, Justin Watson
CUT: Jared Wayne, Xavier Johnson, Daniel Jackson, Cornell Powell, Juwann Winfree
IR: Tank Dell
Analysis: Last week I wrote “I personally think Houston will trade Metchie soon for either draft or offensive line capital” AND I WAS ALMOST SPOT ON. Houston traded Metchie for TE Harrison Bryant (more to come) and swapped draft picks.
This edition, Braxton Berrios and Justin Watson make the roster. Berrios’ receptions and punt returns shined in the past two preseason games. Watson has under-performed this preseason, but the staff enjoy his Super Bowl experience and blocking. He is on the knife’s edge of this roster, but appears to be “in” based on the Metchie III trade.
Tight Ends (3)
Dalton Schultz, Cade Stover, Harrison Bryant (via trade)
CUT: Luke Lachey, Irv Smith Jr.
IR: Brevin Jordan
Analysis: Brevin Jordan’s re-injured ACL is devastated the team and the depth in this position.
Rookie Luke Lachey looked more comfortable in his second preseason game, but it was Irv Smith Jr. who led the team with five catches and 46 yards
The loss of Jordan and lack of development by Lachey necessitated an aforementioned trade for TE Harrison Bryant to assume the TE3 role as a pass catcher who thrives on intermediate routes and as a chain-mover.
Offensive Lineman (9)
Tytus Howard, Cam Robinson, Laken Tomlinson, Juice Scruggs, Jarrett Patterson, Blake Fisher, Aireontae Ersery, Ed Ingram, Jake Andrews
CUT: Jaylon Thomas, Trent Brown, LaDarius Henderson, Zach Thomas, Eli Cox*,* Austin Deculus, Connor McD
Analysis: Austin Deculus played left tackle with the second string on Saturday, which surprised fans and pundits. He’s been a non-factor thusfar, but could quietly sneak onto the roster.
This group of nine appears solidified. Trent Brown’s health has deterred him from earning a spot. While Jaylon Thomas and Zach Thomas appear on the second-team OL, they don’t appear to be legitimate contenders.
DEFENSE (24)
Defensive Ends (5)
Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter, Dylan Horton, Derek Barnett, Darrell Taylor
CUT: Casey Toohill, Solomon Byrd
IR Denico Autry
Analysis: Darrell Taylor didn’t impress in the preseason game and the return of Derek Barnett to practice could push him off the roster. Barnett’s return is much anticipated and brought this position group to its full power. It’s doubtful either Taylor or Barnett are cut, but five defensive ends is more than usual.
Defensive Tackles (4)
Tim Settle Jr., Sheldon Rankins, Mario Edwards Jr., Foley Fatukasi
CUT: Tommy Togiai, Kurt Hinish, Junior Tafuna
International Designation: Haggai Ndubuisi
IR: Kyonte Hamilton
Analysis: The addition and preseason usage of Haggai Ndubuisi shook up the depth here. Plus, and more importantly, Foley Fatukasi practiced Wednesday for the first time. For the first time, Togiai is off the roster. This will be another position with a devastating roster cut made somewhere.
Linebackers (5)
Azeez Al-Shaair, Christian Harris, Henry To’oTo’o, E.J. Speed, Jake Hansen
CUT: Jamal Hill, K.C. Ossai, Jackson Woodard, Nick Niemann
Analysis: The Texans have been prioritizing Hill’s youth and speed over Niemann’s special teams versatility thus far. However, in one of the final cuts on the roster, Jamal Hill was removed to make room for an additional offensive weapon. The team will attempt to stash Hill on the practice squad as this aging LB room requires his traits.
Cornerbacks (5)
Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, Jaylin Smith, Tremon Smith, D’Angelo Ross
CUT: Damon Arnette, Arthur Maulet
IR: Alijah Huzzie
Analysis: The Texans chose Ross the past two seasons. He’s had incredible ups and downs, including getting scorched in the Packers game and returning a blocked field goal for a TD in last season’s AFC Wild Card game. The Texans enjoy the veteran Maulet, but he’s only been with the team for a month and allowed several catches in preseason.
Safeties (5)
Jalen Pitre, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Calen Bullock, Myles Bryant, M.J. Stewart
CUT: Russ Yeast, Jalen Mills
IR: Jaylen Reed
PUP: Jimmie Ward
Analysis: Reed’s sprained knee softens the blow here, but if C.J. Gardner Johnson is also IR, then Jalen Mills goes from an unknown to rostered. It’s suspected that the team will part ways with Jimmie Ward and move on from his tumultuous offseason.
Special Teams (3)
Kicker: Ka’Imi Fairbairn
Punter: Tommy Townsend
Long Snapper: Austin Brinkman