A pair of unbeaten teams meet tonight at MetLife Stadium when the New England Patriots take on the New York Giants. This is the final week of the NFL preseason, meaning most starters from both sides are unlikely to play.
However, the Giants’ offense is still must-watch TV, even if the first-stringers don’t take the field. New York has scored the third-most points through two weeks of preseason play, leaving fans hopeful for what’s to come in the regular season.
The public betting trends at BetMGM show 69% of bets are backing the Patriots to cover tonight as 6.5-point underdogs. My Patriots vs. Giants best bets and predictions explain why you should fade the public.
Before placing a wager on the NFL preseason, check out the best NJ sportsbook promos to claim bonus bets for the Week 3 games.
Patriots vs. Giants predictions and best bets
Giants -6.5:-110 odds at bet365 Sportsbook
First team to 25 points - Giants:+150 odds at Caesars Sportsbook
NOTE: Odds are based on the best value our experts find when writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
I normally back underdogs in preseason games because they’re unpredictable and scoring is hard to come by. However, I’m taking a different approach for this matchup.
The Giants have one of the most intriguing QB rooms in the NFL. It consists of veterans Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, Tommy DeVito and first-round rookie Jaxson Dart.
All four have gotten snaps in the preseason, and New York’s offense is flourishing. Despite getting below-average production from the rushing attack, the Giants are scoring 32.5 points per game.
Wilson will be the Week 1 starter, so he may ride the bench tonight. However, I expect New York’s QB depth to lead the charge in another high-scoring victory.
RB Dante Miller is another player to watch for the G-Men. The undrafted rookie has racked up 162 all-purpose yards, most of which came through the air. With RBs Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary likely to sit, Miller should get plenty of snaps.
My favorite prop bet for the game is the Giants to be the first team to score 25 points. This betting market is only available at Caesars Sportsbook, and a $10 bet returns $15 if the wager hits. If neither team reaches 25 points, the wager settles as a loss.
New York surpassed 30 points in Weeks 1 and 2 of the NFL preseason, while New England only cracked 25 points in the opener. The Giants have been electric on offense, and I’m banking on that to continue for another week.
RELATED: See where the Giants stand in the Super Bowl 60 odds market.
Patriots vs. Giants moneyline odds analysis
Why the Giants could win as the favorite
Best odds:-275 at BetMGM Sportsbook
I’ve already gushed about the Giants’ offense, so let’s switch the focus to the other side of the ball. New York surrendered 25 points in the preseason opener, but looked much better in a 31-12 Week 2 win over the New York Jets.
The Jets picked up 333 total yards, but converted less than 50% on third down, tossed two interceptions and made only two trips to the red zone. The Giants’ defense bent but didn’t break, while the offense lit it up.
With QB Drake Maye and other Patriots’ starters likely to sit, the Giants are on track to finish the preseason with a perfect 3-0 record. However, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze with the G-Men’s -275 moneyline odds at BetMGM Sportsbook ($10 bet returns $3.64).
Why the Patriots could win as the underdog
Best odds:+235 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Giants’ offense has been clicking, but so has the Patriots’ defense. New England is allowing 15 points per game and has forced four turnovers through two games.
The Patriots’ QB room isn’t as deep as the Giants, but they’ve got two solid backups that have been major contributors this preseason. Josh Dobbs and Ben Wooldridge have combined for 338 passing yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.
It’s a short week for New England after beating Minnesota last Saturday. Most starters are expected to sit, meaning it’ll be up to Dobbs, Wooldridge and the rest of the backups to earn a victory.
New York has home-field advantage, but that’s far less valuable in the preseason.
If you purchase a product or register for an account through a link on our site, we may receive compensation. By using this site, you consent to our User Agreement and agree that your clicks, interactions, and personal information may be collected, recorded, and/or stored by us and social media and other third-party partners in accordance with our Privacy Policy.