Four teams had better home records than Arsenal in the 2024-25 Premier League. If they are to have any hope of winning their first league title in 22 years, they’ll need to fix that this season, starting with Saturday’s game against Leeds United.
After a third successive season finishing as runners up, Mikel Arteta spent the summer looking for ways to improve his team’s performance this season to finally secure a Premier League title.
It’s clear that Arsenal’s results in 2024-25 were impacted by a range of factors like an extensive injury list, controversial red cards and a prioritisation of the UEFA Champions League run, but some of those things to an extent were outside of Arteta’s control.
He summed up in May how he felt his team needed to overcome the trials and tribulations of a long season, saying: “I think what we have to try to do is to amplify the margins. The bigger the margins are, even if those things happen, then it will be very difficult for the opposition.”
Many commentators pinpointed areas where Arsenal could or should improve, such as signing a striker, having more depth in the squad to cover for key players like Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard or William Saliba, whose absences have been costly in the last few seasons, or upgrading on current squad players, and the club have taken steps to address those things.
Now, after a hard-fought opening day victory over Manchester United at Old Trafford, Arteta will need to address another weakness from the last couple of seasons – Arsenal’s home form.
Making the Emirates a Fortress
Most title winners have very strong home records, so Arteta will be keen to make the Emirates a harder place to visit than it has been in recent years in the Premier League.
The Gunners dropped points in eight of their 19 home games in 2024-25, picking up fewer points (39) than the rest of the top six teams in the league apart from Newcastle (38).
They also lost on home soil in the FA Cup to 10-man Manchester United and lost the first legs of the League Cup semi-final versus Newcastle and the Champions League semi-final against Paris St Germain, contributing to their exits from both competitions.
Their tally of 39 points in the league at home is quite a lot less than the average achieved by the Premier League champions in the last 10 seasons of 48.5 points, while it’s also fewer than any team to have won the title in the thirty 38-game seasons of the competition’s history. It’s also notable that the last time Arsenal won the title, they picked up 49 points in home games in 2003-04.
Best Home Form by Premier League Champions
Away Wins Are More Common Than Ever
Arsenal weren’t alone in struggling with their home form, as 2024-25 had a record number of away wins for any season where fans have been allowed in the stadia (132).
The only Premier League season with more victories on the road was the Covid impacted 2020-21 season (153) where many games were played behind closed doors or with restricted crowds.
However, it seems a more general trend as all of the top five campaigns for most away wins have come in the last seven seasons.
Premier League Away Wins
Misfiring Gunners
A key factor in their poor return in 2024-25 has obviously been Arsenal’s lack of firepower. Four teams, including Brentford, scored more goals at home than the Gunners (35) and Arteta’s side netted the same number as 17th-placed Tottenham across home games during the campaign.
The interesting thing, though, is that Arsenal went into the campaign off the back of two seasons where they scored two of their highest tallies on home soil in Premier League history.
The 2023-24 campaign saw them net 48 times at home, and the year before in 2022-23 they scored 53, only scoring more in 2004-05 and 2017-18 (both 54). A lack of goals therefore hardly seemed likely going into the last campaign.
But it’s clear that the struggle to find the net at the Emirates was a significant factor in returning eight points fewer from home games in 2024-25 than 2023-24.
While Arsenal’s defensive record remained largely similar, fewer shots, worse conversion of chances and a lower xG total in attack saw Arteta’s side score 13 fewer goals.
Arsenal at Home - Last Two Premier League Seasons
Proceed With Caution
Regular visitors to the Emirates often bemoan the Gunners’ occasional risk averse approach to matches. This is demonstrated by the fact that Arsenal spent proportionally more time in a low block defensively in home games than they do on the road.
Low Blocks in Home Games PL 2024-25
Low Blocks in Away Games PL 2024-25
Only two teams spent more time in a low block than the Gunners in their home matches last season, and most of the other teams in the top seven for that category struggled at the wrong end of the table.
If the tactic was designed to create counter attack opportunities, it didn’t work as Arsenal seemed content to allow opponents to drop deep and protect their own penalty area, and only Man City’s opponents spent more time in a low block than Arsenal in home games.
Low Blocks Faced in Home Games PL 2024-25
That defensive mindset probably had an impact on the Gunners’ attacking numbers but also allowed opponents some encouragement of their own, especially given Arsenal’s defensive record has been worse at home than away over the last three campaigns.
Sucker Punch
Problems seem to have stemmed from a recurring issue around defensive performance at the Emirates compared to away from home since 2022-23.
The underlying numbers have been solid, but the Gunners continue to concede more goals than would normally be expected from the chances they allow. Arsenal usually dominate possession but tend to concede from the few chances they allow their opponents.
Arsenal Home vs Away
Arsenal have conceded more goals in home games than away from home over the last three full campaigns and earned fewer clean sheets.
On average, the Gunners have given up clearer chances at the Emirates than they have away, but they have also been harshly punished, conceding 58 goals when the chances they have allowed would normally have been expected to yield around 48. And those numbers are reversed on the road, where they would have been expected to concede 60 but have only shipped 48 away from home.
Arteta needs to find a way of improving the home record while maintaining that overperformance on the road.
Arsenal Home vs Away Shots Conceded vs Goals
It’s been remarkable that Arsenal’s goalkeepers have been 36% more likely to concede a goal from the average shot on target at home as they have on the road. Arteta’s side have averaged three goals conceded for every 12 accurate shots faced away from home and four for every 12 efforts on target in home matches.
With a striker on board, more depth in the squad and upgrades in key positions, Arteta will be hopeful that he has the necessary tools at his disposal to improve their home record in 2025-26 and transform the Gunners from perennial runners-up to champions and finally secure that elusive Premier League crown.
Premier League Stats Opta
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