We are now entering the seventh year of the head coaching regime of Matt LaFleur. With six seasons of track record to observe, it is possible to see patterns and draw certain conclusions, although sometimes that can be misleading, since each year has its own set of dynamics and circumstances.
One pattern that seems pretty constant is that Matt LaFleur teams tend to start slowly. In games and in seasons. This is particularly true when the Packers play the top opponents. In 2024, Green Bay played a total of seven games against playoff teams Detroit, Minnesota, Philadelphia and Houston. In the first quarter of those games, the Packers were outscored by a cumulative total of 40 to 6. Not surprising then, Green Bay went 1-6 in those games.
Slow starts against the top teams are nearly impossible to overcome. In week four against the Vikings, the Packers fell behind 28-0. LaFleur’s troops fought back gallantly, and actually got to within two points at 31-29. But the team was unable to recover Daniel Whelan’s onside kick in the closing seconds. Green Bay dominated the second half, but the slow start killed them.
In the playoffs at Philadelphia, Keisean Nixon fumbled the opening kickoff (although I thought the replay showed Nixon clearly re-established possession and was down before the ball was taken away from him). The Eagles immediately scored after the turnover, and went on to build a 10-0 advantage in the first quarter. With the Packers’ offense having to bite and scratch for every yard against a tenacious Eagles defense, the early deficit just couldn’t be overcome.
In this year’s preseason opener at home against the New York Jets, LaFleur sent the starters out to play the first two series. They went three-and-out in the first possession, and ran eight mostly uninspired plays on the second before punting. The entire team was sluggish, and perhaps not expecting a fired up Jets squad playing with intensity. It sure looked as though the Green Bay coaching staff did not have this team ready to play a game.
In recent years LaFleur’s teams have shown a lack of readiness to open a season. Three of the last four seasons the Packers have stumbled out of the gate. In 2021 they began the campaign by suffering a humiliating 38-3 loss to New Orleans in a game that had been moved to Jacksonville, Florida. In 2022 they were thumped by the Vikings in Minneapolis by a count of 23-7. Then last year they travelled to Brazil to raise the curtain on the season against the Eagles, losing 34-29. LaFleur’s recent teams have struggled early in the season, gradually finding momentum at about midyear.
Which brings us to 2025. The Packers open with division rival Detroit at home, and then another Lambeau Field game against the Washington Commanders. Both of those teams will be key players in the NFC playoff picture. How Green Bay fares in those early encounters may tell us everything we need to know about this team's viability as a contender. If the Packers emerge 2-0, look out NFC. That would constitute an official announcement that these Packers are ready to contend for a championship. Brian Gutekunst’s master plan to build a new Super Bowl window may be coming into fruition. Even if the Pack splits the first two, they should be in reasonably good shape. But if they drop both games, they will have dug an early hole for themselves, one that will be difficult to overcome. A loss to the Lions, especially at Lambeau, certainly puts Green Bay at an early disadvantage in the division. The rematch will be a tough challenge in Detroit on Thanksgiving. A defeat to the Commanders immediately sends the team behind Washington in the wild card picture. It was the Commanders who beat out Green Bay for the sixth seed in last year’s playoffs, sending the Packers to a much more difficult match-up in the Wild Card round at Philadelphia, as opposed to a more winnable game at Tampa Bay.
One thing is sure. Green Bay can’t afford sluggish starts in those first two games. LaFleur has to find a way to get his guys ready from the jump. They’ll be playing at home, lots of crowd noise, national TV audiences. Get these guys pumped up. Attack the opponents with everything you’ve got early and put them away.
It’s not hyperbole to imagine the tone for the Packers’ entire season may largely be set in the first quarter of those two games.