From the moment Shane Streichen announced Daniel Jones as the Indianapolis Colts' starting quarterback for 2025, the trade rumors began. They are likely to continue until former starter Anthony Richardson is either dealt away or Colts’ management makes some definitive statement that rejects that notion.
The latter isn’t likely, and even if Steichen or GM Chris Ballard were to give a boilerplate “Anthony remains a vital part of our team…” pronouncement, it wouldn’t be believed. Indianapolis made its feelings about the former top-four draft pick clear when it elevated the Giants’ castoff Jones over him.
The nature of the NFL makes it foolish to state for certain that Anthony Richardson has taken his last snap as an Indianapolis Colts quarterback. Jones could twist his ankle in practice tomorrow, and Richardson would be back operating with the ones. But don't bet on it. What seems far more likely is that Anthony Richardson will be traded, perhaps within the next week.
Could Colts QB Anthony Richardson’s counterpart in Las Vegas thrive in a new setting?
The most likely trade scenario involving Richardson would include draft capital. But do not rule out a straight player-for-player swap. Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton recently floated the idea of a Richardson-Aidan O’Connell trade, and this might be the rare trade that benefits both players and both teams involved.
A trade involving draft picks might interest the Colts, but it also would put their failure with Richardson into start relief. San Francisco got a fourth-round pick from Dallas when it dealt Trey Lance two years ago. You could try to argue that AR5 has shown more than Lance had when he was traded, but that won’t get the Colts very far.
It’s hard to imagine any team giving up more than a fourth-round pick for a player in Richardson’s situation.
If Ballard were to get such an offer, he would have to seriously consider it, even though it would codify just how misguided the Richardson pick had been in the first place. As a general rule of business, you don’t want to be trading the fourth overall pick for a fourth-rounder just two years later.
But trading for another player, like O’Connell, is a different matter. Coincidentally, the current Raiders' backup was a fourth-round pick out of Purdue the same year Indy took Richardson. But two years in, O’Connell now has a track record. Plenty of fourth-round picks aren’t even in the league after two years. O’Connell has already started 17 games.
His stats aren’t particularly good. A 7-10 record as a starter. A 62.6 percent completion percentage. 6.5 yards-per-pass-attempt. No one is saying Aidan O’Connell is a future franchise QB. If anyone thought that, Las Vegas would not be considering trades.
On the other hand, that completion percentage dwarfs what Richardson has achieved. Last year, he was better than Richardson in other key metrics like touchdown rate, interception rate, and sack rate. Those last two are keys when considering a trade like this.
Aidan O’Connell cannot make the same kind of explosive plays that Anthony Richardson is capable of. But he is also far less likely to take a sack or throw a pick. And that seems to be the pivot that Shane Steichen is making by choosing Daniel Jones over Anthony Richardson. He wants fewer mistakes, even if it means sacrificing the occasional splash play.
At this point, O’Connell would be coming to Indy as a backup. It’s important to remember that. As a backup, he could be a steadier option than Richardson. In another year or two, Riley Leonard might be ready for that role. But it’s hard to imagine Steichen would feel comfortable if he were forced to play the rookie this season. Having O’Connell means Leonard can wait in the wings.
From the Raiders' point of view, Richardson may offer too much upside to pass on. This rumor began in part because of the glowing remarks Pete Carroll made about Richardson a few years ago. Carroll, always known for pumping his players up, has no negative history with Richardson.
Geno Smith has been durable over the past several seasons. If Richardson could sit for a year or two behind Geno, it might be the perfect environment in which he could develop.
Colts fans may not care about any of that. They only want to upgrade their own club. Given the current situation in Indy, O’Connell would be an upgrade as a backup quarterback. If he had to play in relief of Jones this season. The offense would be OK. And that is more than you can say about the situation in Indianapolis as it stands today.
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