With fantasy drafting season in full swing, I want to look at every first-round pick and see what it will take for them to win your league. I also want to know how they can bust, even if it isn’t the most likely scenario. Here are the boom and bust scenarios for every first-round pick by ADP.
Get personalized fantasy football insights based on your league settings with FantasyLife+. Your league is unique, your advice should be too. Head tofantasylife.comand use code ROTO20 for 20% off.
Ja’Marr Chase
Boom Scenario:
These first few boom scenarios can be short and sweet. Ja’Marr Chase just won the wide receiver triple crown by leading the league in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. He became just the fifth player in NFL history to do that. Chase put 85 points between himself and the WR2 last year. He has plenty of cushion to regress and still lead the position in scoring. For the top half of the first round, it’s safe to assume that they hit far more often when they miss. When they do miss, it’s often a small setback.
Bust Scenario:
The Bengals had the perfect setup for fantasy production last year. Their defense was bad and their offense was humming. Every game was a shootout, seemingly designed to get Chase into the Hall of Fame. The Bengals ran 878 plays when the deficit was one score in either direction. That was the third-most in the league. They had the highest pass rate in the NFL in this situation at 68 percent. The next closest team passed at a 63 percent clip when down or up one score. All of this play volume resulted in Bengals games going over the Vegas total in 11 of 17 contests. Chase was an otherworldly fantasy asset in games with high totals.
chaseavg.png
He averaged an absurd 35.5 PPR points in six games with a total of 48 or higher. The Bengals fired their defensive coordinator in the offseason and spent their first, second, and fourth-round picks on defenders. Chase is still going to be electric this year, but fewer shootouts combined with a breakout from someone behind him in the draft order could make him just a good, not great, fantasy bet.
NFL: AFC Championship-Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Your one-stop-shop for Rotoworld’s preseason fantasy football content.
Bijan Robinson
Boom Scenario:
Volume is king at running back and Robinson has that part of the equation fully locked down. He ranked fourth in the league in carries (304) and third in receptions (61) among running backs last year. The missing piece preventing him from finishing as the RB1 was efficiency. Don’t get me wrong, Robinson’s spreadsheet metrics were strong, but they weren’t elite. This is the easiest stat to get my point across: Saquon Barkley had more 70-yard carries (two) than Robinson had 40-yard carries (zero). In fact, Robinson has never had a 40-yard carry in the NFL. Should we expect a running back who runs a 4.46 at 5’11/215 to do so at some point? I think so. The Falcons can also get out to leads more often if Michael Penix Jr. is a hit, juicing the volume even more. If Robinson finally finds his next gear as a runner, he could give us the Barkley season with even more of a role through the air.
Bust Scenario:
On the other hand, what if Robinson just isn’t that special? Per NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Robinson faced eight or more defenders in the box on 13 percent of his carries, the third-lowest rate in the league. Penix can put Atlanta in favorable game scripts more often, but defenses can’t sell out to stop Robinson any less than they already were. Per PFF, only 27.3 percent of Robinson’s 1,456 yards came on breakaway runs. That’s actually lower than Tyler Allgeier’s breakaway rate. The good news is that Robinson might have the highest floor of any running back. Whether he can match the ceilings of Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley remains to be seen.
NFL: Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles
Christian McCaffrey looks to reclaim his place among the elite and rookie Ashton Jeanty is ready to make an impact.
CeeDee Lamb
Boom Scenario:
The Cowboys already showed us the boom scenario for Lamb in 2023. They had no semblance of a run game and chose to play backyard football with Dak Prescott chucking the rock to Lamb 10 times each week. Prescott ranked top-five in attempts and yards. He led the NFL in completions and touchdowns. Dallas posted a +4% pass rate over expected.
dalproe.png
Lamb, in turn, paced the league in receptions and went for 1,749 yards plus a dozen scores. Prescott is the league’s highest-paid passer. Lamb is in the top five among receivers. The team traded for George Pickens and extended Jake Ferguson. Their top running back is Javonte Williams. This team is set up to lead the league in passing volume.
Bust Scenario:
There are a few oddball scenarios that could hurt Lamb’s stock. His quarterback is 32 years old and coming off a season-ending hamstring injury. Brian Schottenheimer, his new head coach, was an offensive coordinator for 14 years. He never had an offense that ranked better than 14th in passing yards per game. The one wrench in Lamb’s WR1 campaign I want to throw is the aforementioned addition of Pickens. Pickens has gotten better in every year of his career by both yards per route run and target share since entering the league years ago. He hit 2.1 and 26 percent in those categories last year. That is all while playing on dreadfully run-heavy and ineffective offenses in Pittsburgh. The trade to Dallas could unlock another gear for the young wideout, putting enough pressure on Lamb’s target share to prevent him from contending with Chase or Jefferson for the crown.
Saquon Barkley
Boom Scenario:
Barkley just needs to do what he did last year. He led the NFL in carries (345) and yards (2,005) while scoring 15 times. It also wouldn’t be surprising to see his touchdown total rise. Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, and James Cook each scored 16 times. They outperformed their expected touchdown totals in PFF’s model by four, six, and six. Barkley scored 12 times on the ground, outpacing his expected total by three. Barkley was tackled at the one-yard line 11 times and failed to follow any of those attempts up with a touchdown. If he’s going to repeat as the RB1, his best path is through a gaudy touchdown campaign.
Bust Scenario:
Barkley isn’t going to hit as many home runs next year. That’s as close to a guarantee as a fantasy analyst can make before the season. There have been 18 running backs to average over five yards per carry on 300+ attempts and play in the following season since 2000. Only two averaged over five YPC in the following season and just four managed more than 4.5. Their average YPC was 4.3. This holds true when looking at fantasy scoring as well. A dozen running backs have hit the 300 attempts mark and averaged .2 fantasy points over expected in that same timeframe. The average FPOE per carry in the following season was .07. That shift alone would cost him 45 points. Barkley’s situation is so good that I would not bet on him falling as far as previous elite fantasy options, but the math is hard to deny.
Is there case against Eagles' Barkley as RB1?
Matthew Berry, Jay Croucher and Lawrence Jackson Jr. debate whether Saquon Barkley is still the top running back in fantasy football, sharing why he could get surpassed this year by Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Jahmyr Gibbs
Boom Scenario:
This might be the most obvious boom scenario of this article among the players who haven’t hit their ceiling yet. Gibbs averaged 32.6 fantasy points per game in three contests without David Montgomery available last year.
gibbs.png
He was putting up video game numbers and would do so again if Montgomery missed time this year. Even if that happens for just a few games, it would propel Gibbs to a must-have season. More importantly, the Lions could choose to play Montgomery less even if he’s healthy. Gibbs wouldn’t hit his 32-point average in that scenario, but it would give him more runway to clear Saquon Barkley for the RB1 title.
Bust Scenario:
This is the easiest doomsday scenario to paint for a top-five pick. Gibbs averaged 18.7 PPR points per game in contests with David Montgomery active last year. That’s the same number as Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown, both of whom go after him in the first round. It wouldn’t be a terrible outcome by any means, but you have to find the season-defining picks in the first round. Gibbs will be a prototypical silent killer if he doesn’t ice Montgomery.
Justin Jefferson
Boom Scenario:
Jefferson’s quiet statistical season in 2024 largely came down to play volume. The Vikings ranked 17th in pass attempts per game at 32.7 last year. That was down drastically from their 37.1 per-game pace in 2023. Minnesota ran 85 plays from a two-score lead in 2023. On the heels of a vastly improved defense, that number ballooned to 350. Having Brian Flores on the headset will prevent the Vikings’ defense from bottoming out, but defensive performances are not awfully sticky year to year, and Jefferson would be a massive beneficiary of any regression.
Bust Scenario:
The comps for McCarthy are few and far between. Most round one rookies suit up at some point in their first season. Almost no first-round passers have missed their entire rookie campaign because of an injury. For that reason, I’ll just keep it simple and note the average YPA for all rookie quarterbacks in their first year over the past decade is 6.8 with a touchdown rate of 3.8 percent. The Vikings as a team averaged 7.4 YPA with a healthy touchdown rate of 6.4 percent in 2024. If McCarthy gives us an average rookie season for a player with his draft capital, the Vikings’ offense will take a notable step back, bringing Jefferson down with the ship.
NFL: Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles
Ja’Marr Chase cemented his status as the fantasy WR1 by winning the receiver triple crown last year, while Justin Jefferson is looking to dethrone him with the help of J.J. McCarthy.
Christian McCaffrey
Boom Scenario:
You shouldn’t be able to get a player with the highest ceiling of any fantasy asset this deep into the first round. McCaffrey has the second, 15th, and 17th-best fantasy seasons for a running back in the history of the NFL. All three of those would have led the position in scoring last year. McCaffrey also has room to grow as a pass-catcher in San Francisco’s offense. He earned an elite 19 percent target share in 2023. Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle missed a combined one game, excluding a Week 18 contest where the starters rested. Aiyuk is eying a midseason return from a torn ACL and Samuel has been sent to Washington via trade. If the 49ers don’t find high-end production from Jauan Jennings (currently hurt) and Ricky Pearsall, they’re going to use McCaffrey more than ever through the air.
Bust Scenario:
This bust scenario is the most salient of any first-round pick. McCaffrey only appeared in four games last year because of a lingering bilateral Achilles tendinitis. He went from 3.4 yards after contact and .23 missed tackles forced per attempt in 2023 to 2.7 and .1 last year. It was a small sample of carries, but McCaffrey just turned 29, missed most of his previous season, and was a shell of his former self when active. Even a strong receiving profile won’t justify a first-round pricetag if he has nothing left in the tank as a runner.
Malik Nabers
Boom Scenario:
The talent with Nabers is undeniable. He set the record for targets (170) and catches (109) among rookie wideouts. His .3 targets per route trailed only Puka Nacua. He just needs his quarterbacks to be serviceable to contend for the top receiver spot in fantasy. So far, that bet doesn’t look too bad. Russell Wilson currently ranks as PFF’s No. 7 graded passer in the preseason. His 9.7 YPA is the third-highest in the league. Jaxson Dart isn’t far behind with an 8.3 YPA and a top-15 passing grade. Nabers is good enough to win fantasy leagues with nothing more than competence at quarterback. He’s got two spins of the wheel with Dart and Wilson.
Bust Scenario:
I don’t normally bring up injuries as a reason a player could bust. That is obviously true for everyone. But with Nabers, it at least deserves a mention. Nabers missed a large chunk of training camp with a shoulder injury and was absent for much of the early offseason program while dealing with a toe issue that dates back to his time at LSU. Don’t love that.
The bigger issue (hopefully) will be the Giants’ quarterback play. There have been 38 300-point fantasy seasons from wide receivers over the past decade. Their teams averaged 26.5 points per game with a season-long finish of ninth place. Vegas has the Giants projected for comfortably under 20 points per game, pegging them as a bottom-five offense. If the bookmakers are correct, the offensive environment in New York is all but guaranteed to be bad enough to prevent Nabers from competing with the other first-round wideouts.
Nabers headlines Berry's most-drafted WRs
The FFHH crew reveal their most-drafted wide receivers for the 2025 NFL season, weighing in on New York Giants' Malik Nabers, Arizona Cardinals' Marvin Harrison Jr., and Atlanta Falcons' Drake London.
Nico Collins
Boom Scenario:
Like a handful of players before him, Collins’ boom scenario is simply a return to form, and a form that he has already shown. In 2023, the Texans’ offense was firing on all cylinders and Collins was on pace for a monster season. He missed one game with calf strain and returned to a part-time role for a week. Throwing out those two games, Collins was on pace for 98 catches, 1,655 yards, and nine touchdowns. Houston’s offense then flopped in 2024. C.J. Stroud played worse and OC Bobby Slowik didn’t have a counterpunch when the league adjusted. The team has since relieved Slowik of his duties and replaced him with a Sean McVay disciple in Nick Caley. If he can get Stroud back in rhythm and paper over Houston’s offensive line issues with quick, easy-button looks to Collins, we should fully expect a rebound from the superstar wideout.
Bust Scenario:
Like Nabers before him, offensive environment is a legitimate concern for Collins. No 300-point receiver has come from a team ranked lower than 21st in points per game over the past decade. The Texans ranked 19th in PPG last year. They have since jettisoned multiple starting offensive linemen, including their stud left tackle Laremy Tunsil. With Stefon Diggs gone and Tank Dell likely to miss the year, they added Christian Kirk via trade and spent a pair of Day 2 picks on Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. If the line is an even bigger issue for Stroud and there are more targets for him to throw to, Collins could turn in a good but not league-winning season.
Puka Nacua
Boom Scenario:
Nacua’s per-game and per-route numbers last year would have had him fighting for the WR1 title in fantasy. He easily led the NFL in yards per route (3.2) and targets per route (.35). His 18.8 fantasy points per game trailed only Chase among players who played at least 10 games. That was despite Nacua exiting early twice. Removing his pair of early departures, Nacua averaged over 21 points per game. If he and Matthew Stafford stay healthy, Nacua is a top-three fantasy wideout.
Bust Scenario:
This is another simple one. Stafford is currently dealing with a lingering back injury that has already forced him to unexpectedly miss practice. It also sent him to the wellness Airstream.
Matthew Stafford walked into this Ammortal chamber. Ammortal advertises itself as a "wellness device that aims to optimize human performance and promote holistic health through a combination of non-invasive technologies." He is not practicing today. pic.twitter.com/KQ2GEmUk0Q
— Adam Grosbard (@AdamGrosbard) August 11, 2025
Do what you will with that information. Jimmy Garoppolo is his backup. Though Sean McVay made Garoppolo look good in his Week 18 start last year, it’s hard to imagine that holding up over 17 weeks. Even in that one game, Garoppolo averaged .02 EPA per play with a -3.1 percent completion rate over expected. Stafford was at .12 EPA per play with a -.7 CPOE. Nacua could likely survive in a world without Stafford, but he wouldn’t thrive.
NFL: Los Angeles Rams OTA
Puka Nacua 2025 player profile, projection, stats, outlook from Rotoworld.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Boom Scenario:
The Lions’ 2024 is remembered as the season where their defense collapses amidst a monsoon of injuries, but that occurred late enough into the season that their season-long defensive numbers still look great. They allowed 23.2 points per game in 2023 and 20.1 in 2024. They went from 21st to seventh in EPA per play allowed. We shouldn’t expect the Lions’ defense to remain as bad as they were in the second half of last year, but it’s fun to look at just how much St. Brown’s numbers spiked over the final two months. ARSB’s pace from Week 9 onward would have been good for 126 catches, 1,454 yards, and 12 touchdowns. The Lions are smart enough to play pass-heavy football when forced to. A return to their 2023 form would be more than enough to make St. Brown a top-three receiver.
Bust Scenario:
ARSB already saw his role decline in 2024. He went from a 30 percent target share and 34 percent of the air yards in 2023 to 27 percent and 32 percent last year. His targets per route fell from .27 to .25. It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that his volume metrics all took a hit in the same season that saw Jameson Williams finally put it all together. The Lions are also facing massive touchdown regression after scoring 63 times through 17 weeks last season. Since 2000, teams that scored 60 or more touchdowns in as many games dropped to 48.5 scores in the following season. The 1-2 combo of a declining target share and fewer touchdowns to go around could make St. Brown look like a second-round value at the end of the season.