Despite the myriad hours poured into the preparatory process, the NFL Draft is little more than a glorified crapshoot. The Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings hoped CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson would develop into superstars after selecting them at Nos. 17 and 22, respectively, in the 2020 edition of the annual prospect pageant. They just couldn’t have counted on the historic production each has submitted through their first half-decade in the professional ranks.
But while Jefferson has been the subject of countless all-time discussions (Randy Moss made a particularly caprine claim), Lamb has toiled away in relative obscurity — a bit ironic given that only one is a member of America’s Team. The Oklahoma product has gotten his flowers, sure, but good luck finding a prominent media member who has dropped his name in a GOAT conversation.
Though the 2025 season is unlikely to change that narrative, the narrow gap between them is set to close.
Maybe even entirely.
Through five seasons, Cowboys star CeeDee Lamb is nearly keeping pace with Justin Jefferson
A four-time Pro Bowler with one first-team All-Pro nod on his ever-growing resume, Lamb has posted elite numbers ever since stepping foot on NFL turf. He was the 2023 receptions leader (135), has recorded at least six touchdowns each season of his career, and has cleared the 1,000-yard threshold each of the past four seasons.
He also hasn’t forgotten that availability is sometimes the greatest ability.
Jefferson has fought through plenty of nagging injuries to show off his audacious playmaking ability — we don’t have to denigrate one to prop up the other — but he’s succumbed to others. Through five years in the league, Jefferson has sat out of seven games, all of which came during the 2023 season; Lamb has watched from the sidelines just three times.
Jefferson has the better per-game pace, which should be a no-brainer given that he has the superior career receiving production to this point. However, the lingering hamstring malady plaguing him during training camp has to have made at least a few Vikings fans wake up in a cold sweat this August.
Player Career Receptions Career Yards Career Touchdowns
Justin Jefferson 495 7,432 40
CeeDee Lamb 496 6,339 38
Regardless, we’re currently focusing on the past.
Using point-per-reception (PPR) fantasy points as a stand-in for overall value (it’s not perfect, but it’s an easy way to turn offensive production into a catch-all metric), identifying both 2020 draftees as historic producers through their first five seasons is a pretty easy task. With the caveat that current standouts have benefitted from 17-game campaigns since 2021, here’s a look at the top 10 scorers at wide receiver through their first five NFL seasons:
Player First Season PPR Points, First Five Seasons
Jerry Rice 1985 1,077.5
Randy Moss 1998 1,067.2
Justin Jefferson 2020 998.0
Tyreek Hill 2016 945.4
CeeDee Lamb 2020 922.7
Lance Alworth 1962 904.6
Calvin Johnson 2007 897.9
A.J. Green 2011 888.4
Torry Holt 1999 883.9
Dez Bryant 2010 880.5
Pretty decent company.
For even more perspective, the top non-Lamb, non-Jefferson finishers from the 2020 draft class? Tee Higgins (664.3) sits at No. 64. Brandon Aiyuk (600.2) falls three spots outside the top 100. Beyond them, only Michael Pittman Jr. (565.0) and Jerry Jeudy (528.5) have crested 500 PPR fantasy points in their careers.
Can CeeDee Lamb’s production surpass Justin Jefferson’s in 2025?
ESPN’s fantasy projections have Jefferson slated to record a staggering 324.47 PPR points (116 receptions for 1,459 yards and 11 TDs). Lamb checks in just behind him at 315.04 points (117 receptions for 1,437 yards and eight touchdowns).
Maybe that’s exactly how the year will play out. Many of the subjective factors, however, hint at Lamb flipping the script.
Jefferson could benefit from J.J. McCarthy proving himself an upgrade at quarterback during the first season of the post-Sam Darnold era, but let’s not forget just how good Darnold looked before he pumpkined down the 2024 stretch. Though Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell has the pass-first scheme necessary to produce big numbers even with yours truly lining up under center, McCarthy will invariably experience at least some growing pains as QB1.
Dallas, meanwhile, has a healthy Dak Prescott raring to go and prove capable of continuing a years-long trend of submitting monstrous campaigns on the heels of disappointing ones.
Jefferson has a questionable group of receivers surrounding him, which will allow opposing defenses to dedicate an even more significant portion of the gameplanning process to slowing him. Jordan Addison will miss the first three games of the year due to suspension. Jalen Nailor suffered a hand injury that has left his status uncertain. Even Jefferson himself has dealt with the aforementioned balky hamstring during training camp.
Dallas, meanwhile, is set to trot out the enigmatic but uber-talented George Pickens alongside Lamb, potentially creating one of the league's most potent one-two pass-catching punches.
Speaking of one-two punches, Jefferson has Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason to pound the ball up the gut. Their primary goal will be to wear down the opposition, benefitting the Vikings and O'Connell's scheme overall but depriving Jefferson of a smidge of his typical workload.
Dallas, meanwhile, has enough question marks at running back to fill AT&T Stadium to the brim. And even if some combination of — deep breath here; I've got to get through them all — Javonte Williams, Jaydon Blue, Miles Sanders, Phil Mafah, Deuce Vaughn, and Malik Davis excels, the passing attack is poised to retain top billing.
None of this is to say Lamb will leave Jefferson in the dust. He’s not, barring a catastrophic injury no one — not even Green Bay Packers fans — hopes to see.
But when that same dust settles at the end of the 2025 campaign, the production numbers through six years may create an uncomfortable conversation few outside Dallas are prepared to have.
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