The 2025-26 NBA season isn’t just about the players, but about the coaches. Coaching in today’s NBA has never been more cutthroat. Owners are impatient, fan bases are louder than ever, and one bad month can put a coach on eggshells.
Every team is chasing that chance of winning a championship, and when the product on the floor doesn’t match expectations, the first head on the chopping block usually belongs to the coach on the sidelines - whether that's fair or not.
That’s where the Hot Seat Meter comes in. From coaches who are virtually untouchable, cemented by championships, culture-building, or generational stars, to those who can feel their time coming to an end, we’re breaking down where each head coach stands heading into the new season. Let's get into it.
Untouchable
Mark Diagneault - Oklahoma City Thunder
Ime Udoka - Houston Rockets
Steve Kerr - Golden State Warriors
Rick Carlisle - Indiana Pacers
Erik Spoelstra - Miami Heat
Tyronn Lue - Los Angeles Clippers
Jason Kidd - Dallas Mavericks
Jamahl Mosley - Orlando Magic
The Thunder were ahead of schedule last year, but they overcame that to end up champions of the world. Next year, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains an MVP candidate, and Daigneault has proven to be the perfect developmental mind for OKC’s treasure chest of young talent and picks. He’s not only safe and untouchable but a key piece for a potential dynasty.
In just two seasons, Ime Udoka reshaped Houston’s identity from young and chaotic to tough, defensive, and a playoff contender. The arrival of Kevin Durant accelerates their timeline even more. Ownership and the front office are fully aligned with his vision, giving him the long leash to continue molding this rising squad.
The Warriors’ dynasty years may be entering their twilight, but Steve Kerr’s resume of four championships buys him lifetime equity in the Bay. Warriors fans still love him, there might not be a more influential coach in any sport, and he doesn't have to win another title to be acknowledged by the franchise as a legend. Still, as long as Stephen Curry is around, Kerr’s seat won’t so much as flicker.
Rick Carlisle just piloted the Pacers back into the NBA Finals with Tyrese Haliburton at the controls and, in fact, has made two straight Eastern Conference Finals appearances. Indiana trusts him to keep steering this exciting young core into contention, even if his star man rehabs a torn Achilles next season.
The Heat could lose 60 games, and Erik Spoelstra’s job would still be untouchable. Pat Riley has long viewed him as the standard of organizational culture, and his Finals appearances with decent but unspectacular rosters have only reinforced that belief. The Heat should be better next year, but that won't even affect Spo's job if they weren't.
With the Clippers shifting into one final run with an aging but talented roster, Ty Lue remains the steadying hand they trust to navigate whatever’s next. His adaptability and locker-room presence make him a foundational piece, and any failures the Clippers might face next year won't have much to do with him. Lue will coach whoever is available to him to the best of his ability every night.
A Finals trip with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving two seasons ago validated the Mavericks’ trust in Jason Kidd’s leadership. In Dallas, the front office sees Kidd as the man to lead a new charge, even if Doncic won't ever return. Kidd will get any pass available in case Cooper Flagg doesn't perform, because he was thrown into the fire last season.
Orlando’s steady rise into playoff respectability is a testament to Mosley’s development (and defensive) chops. With Paolo Banchero blossoming into a superstar and the arrival of Desmond Bane, Mosley has earned the organization’s patience and confidence for the long haul.
Safe For Now
Kenny Atkinson - Cleveland Cavaliers
Joe Mazzulla - Boston Celtics
Chris Finch - Minnesota Timberwolves
J.J. Redick - Los Angeles Lakers
Will Hardy - Utah Jazz
J.B. Bickerstaff - Detroit Pistons
Mitch Johnson - San Antonio Spurs
The Cavaliers made a bold call moving on from J.B. Bickerstaff for Atkinson, signaling they want to maximize their young core’s offensive potential. Year one was excellent as the Cavs held the best record in the East, but expectations will rise fast in Year two. If Cleveland falters before the All-Star break despite having an All-Star roster, Atkinson's job will be in jeopardy, although we don't foresee that happening.
A championship ring bought Mazzulla breathing room in Boston, but he’s still under the microscope. The Celtics are in win-now mode, so while he’s safe today, an early-season or even playoff stumble could change the tone quickly. He won't have Jayson Tatum, but there is still enough for the Celtics to be respectable in the East, and that's all we want to see.
Minnesota’s breakthrough season two years ago and Anthony Edwards’ leap put Finch in a stable spot. But with Rudy Gobert aging and roster questions looming around whether Julius Randle is the right co-star, Finch will eventually need to prove he can sustain success. We love what Finch is doing in Minny, but as we have seen, a superstar player of Edwards' caliber always puts coaches under pressure.
We love J.J. Redick, even if he was as unconventional a hire as it gets for the Lakers, but his fresh voice and connection to LeBron James have ownership committed, for now. If things wobble after Rob Pelinka went out and acquired Deandre Ayton and Marcus Smart to pair with Luka Doncic and LeBron, his lack of experience could get tested.
Utah still values Hardy as a rising coaching mind, especially with a developmental timeline. The Jazz aren’t competing for anything serious yet, so Hardy is still firmly in the “safe” bucket until he gets the right pieces to work with. He is a great tactical coach, so we place him on this tier confidently.
Now in Detroit, J.B. Bickerstaff gets a clean slate. His track record of defensive culture-building aligns with the Pistons’ young core, giving him a grace period before wins were truly expected. However, tides have turned, and fans want to see the Pistons competing, so Bickerstaff has a slightly tougher job next year.
Taking the reins from Gregg Popovich makes Johnson untouchable in spirit, but not quite in practice. The Spurs are committed to a long Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, and Dylan Harper timeline, so Johnson will get patience, but results will eventually be demanded.
Wait And See
Mike Brown - New York Knicks
David Adelman - Denver Nuggets
Doug Christie - Sacramento Kings
Charles Lee - Charlotte Hornets
Brian Keefe - Washington Wizards
Tuomas Iisalo - Memphis Grizzlies
Jordan Ott - Phoenix Suns
Jordi Fernandez - Brooklyn Nets
The New York Knicks made a bold move to get rid of Tom Thibodeau, but Mike Brown is a solid pickup. We won't go as far as to say he was the best choice on the market, considering Mike Budenholzer probably could have been a fit, but Brown has experience around the NBA. Enough to win a title? We just have to wait and see.
As Denver’s heir apparent with Michael Malone somehow no longer a coach of the team, Adelman is now under the spotlight as a young head coach elsewhere. His seat depends on proving he’s more than a system product, and even if he were given a tough job, he'd better respond quickly.
Still somewhat unproven as a head coach, but with fresh ideas, Christie is in the awkward spot of taking over a team in flux. The Kings’ hierarchy likes him, but the jury is firmly out until he shows results. He has to show he can steer a new era because frustrated Kings fans are waiting for better times.
Charlotte took a gamble with Lee, but we always want to see a young head coach succeed. He has the talented LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller to rely on, but perhaps that won't be enough even if the Eastern Conference is wide open. Regardless, Lee is on "wait and see" status.
The Wizards are rebuilding, which gives Keefe time, but he’ll need to show signs of identity beyond “develop the kids.” A non-competitive season won’t hurt him, but apathy could. At the very least, Keefe needs to make sure his youngsters are competing on both ends of the court instead of settling for loss after loss.
A wild-card hire from Europe, Iisalo is intriguing but untested at the NBA level. Memphis's lack of clear direction means his leash could be either long or alarmingly short. We are still unsure why Taylor Jenkins was fired, but perhaps Iisalo can prove they made the right decision sooner rather than later.
The Suns are banking on Ott to connect with a rebuilding roster, but results will dictate his future. Without star power other than Devin Booker and Jalen Green, he’ll be judged more on growth and culture than wins. Out of all the toughest jobs, Ott's isn't the easiest at all.
Brooklyn is young and clearly tanking, and Fernandez is still figuring out his voice as a head coach. The Nets might give him time, but patience has limits if development stalls, which is why we have him just above the hot seat.
On Hot Seat
Doc Rivers - Milwaukee Bucks
Nick Nurse - Philadelphia 76ers
Quin Snyder - Atlanta Hawks
Billy Donovan - Chicago Bulls
Willie Green - New Orleans Pelicans
Chauncey Billups - Portland Trail Blazers
Darko Rajakovic - Toronto Raptors
Milwaukee was restless even before the coaching carousel started spinning, and Doc Rivers didn’t help his case with another bad season. He’s respected, stemming back from the Celtics days, but he’s one bad start to the season away from another pink slip. It doesn't help that Giannis Antetokounmpo's future is in doubt, and the roster looks atrocious around him, but Rivers has to overcome this quickly.
Philadelphia hasn’t gotten the postseason breakthrough it wanted, and patience around Joel Embiid’s window is thin. Nurse’s tactical chops aren’t in question, but his seat is warming fast because the team simply cannot afford to have another losing season. Not a fun job for Nurse, but that's the nature of the game.
In Atlanta, Quin Snyder’s reputation buys him patience because we need to see how he does with a very talented squad. He’s seen as the guy to eventually stabilize Trae Young’s situation, even if year one and two weren’t smooth, because reinforcements are on the way. If Snyder keeps the Hawks in a top-four seed, he might be safe. If he doesn't, he is on the hot seat... which means he is probably on the hot seat overall.
Chicago’s front office has been reluctant to reset, and Billy Donovan has borne the brunt of underwhelming results. Without a big leap from the Bulls, his time could be up. His seat is getting hotter by the month because management wants to see growth from some players, including Coby White and Patrick Williams.
The Pelicans are talented but inconsistent, and injuries to Zion Williamson can’t be the only excuse forever. Willie Green needs a breakthrough year, or he could become the fall guy. Quite frankly, we don't see him lasting the season next year, even though it won't all be his fault for obvious reasons.
Portland is rebuilding, but Billups hasn’t shown much to suggest he’s the long-term leader. With Scoot Henderson now the face until Damian Lillard returns next year, the Blazers may want a fresh voice sooner rather than later. Overall, things are looking too great for Billups.
Toronto’s direction is murky, and Rajakovic hasn’t delivered much clarity. If the Raptors stall again in the East’s basement despite having Brandon Ingram paired with Scottie Barnes, he could be gone before the rebuild truly takes shape. Hopefully, the vocal Serbian can find his way out of the hot seat.
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