The usual suspects are the favorites to win the 2025/26 Champions League, with reigning champions PSG joining the holy trinity of Bayern Munich, Barcelona, and Real Madrid, as well as last year’s Premier League winners Liverpool, as the top five favorites to conquer European football this season.
However, what’s just as interesting is talking about which teams could break through and win their first Champions League title in history. And not all of those teams are underdogs, as sides like Atletico Madrid that have been regulars or Premier League title contenders Arsenal are also among the list of teams still seeking their first taste of the very summit of European football.
Perhaps the 2025/26 Champions League season will be the one that gets one of these historic clubs off the schneid. Here are the five most likely first-time Champions League winners, ranked in order.
5.Eintracht Frankfurt
Both Monaco and Bayer Leverkusen had a case here, but Eintracht Frankfurt have the best overall squad and the most camaraderie and fluidity with how they play underneath the guidance of one of European football’s most underappreciated managers, Dino Toppmoller.
Eintracht romped Werder Bremen 4-1 in their Bundesliga opener with Jean-Matteo Bahoya and Can Uzun putting on a link-up masterclass for the Eagles. They may have sold their two best players last season, Omar Marmoush and Hugo Ekitike, but they have quite the lineup still attacking wise even without them.
People tend to forget that even after Frankfurt make major sales, they still have a strong collection of young standouts that form the nucleus of the squad. Bahoya, Uzun, and Fares Chaibi are still there in the attack with Freiburg star Ritsu Doan joining them to add dynamism and goal threat.
The backbone of the squad, formed by a strong defense and midfielder Hugo Larsson, are still there for Frankfurt. They have no major weaknesses in their XI and a whole lot of upside.
If you want to bank on a team to surprise in the Champions League and boldly go all the way, then you might as well go with a young, exciting team that has room to grow and is more than the sum of their parts.
4. Tottenham
Tottenham Hotspur could end up being first or second on this list in a few months if I redo this piece, because they have shown a lot of character and a lot more quality than expected in Thomas Frank’s first two games in charge.
The fact that they played up with PSG through the UEFA Supercup Final is one aspect of it, but they’ve also been flawless in the Premier League through their first two fixtures.
Beating up on Burnley 3-0 was impressive, but the real eye-catching display was the 2-0 blanketing of Premier League title contenders Manchester City at the Etihad. Tottenham neutralized their attacking threats, and the new-look midfield with the industrious pairing of Joao Palhinha and Pape Sarr anchoring it under Frank looks totally rejuvenated.
A lot of Tottenham’s hopes as a true Champions League darkhorse through a grueling 2025/26 campaign rests upon the shoulders of Daniel Levy and his ability to follow through with more star talent in the attack, specifically a playmaker to replace the injured James Maddison.
Pending those signings, the sky is the limit for a Tottenham team that has a strong case for being led by the best pure tactician in European football right now. Just ask Pep Guardiola how badly he got outclassed by Mr. Frank.
3. Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid have yet to win a Champions League despite being making three finals, including two in the span of three years in the mid-2010s. And if it weren’t for the sheer magic of Real Madrid, they may have ended up wtih two of them.
Because of all their collapses and calamitous proclivity towards Diego Simeone’s worst red-card tendencies in the Champions League knockouts, Atleti have been a tough horse to back over the years.
But it’s not for a lack of trying recently. Atleti have been one of the biggest transfer market investors in the past two seasons, bringing in Matteo Ruggeri, Alex Baena, David Hancko, Giacomo Raspadori, Johnny Cardoso, and Thiago Almada in yet another eventful summer transfer window at all levels of the squad to bolster the defense, playmaking, midfield, and even goal-scoring aspects of the team.
Of course, Atletico Madrid will go as far as they can in the Champions League if their star power shows up, and Antoine Griezmann, as classy as he remains, has begun to show signs of decline and isn’t even starting every game at this stage.
Simeone needs to find a way to keep the team running through his best technical player, playmaker, and, yes, finisher (apologies to Alexander Sorloth). Atleti actually have all the baseline ingredients of a Champions League title darkhorse, but, as we saw last season, they seem to consistently get in their own way.
2. Napoli
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Napoli were such strong overperformers in Serie A that they ended up winning the title in the end despite Inter Milan having the advantage throughout the 2024/25 season.
Inter made it to the Champions League Final – we’ll say less about what happened to them against PSG – yet they couldn’t even capture silverware in their own country with a blown title to Napoli and an embarrassing Coppa Italia exit to rivals AC Milan.
Whereas the Nerazzurri consistently choked the big games, Napoli outlasted everyone and won the Scudetto, but they also had a key advantage, in that they didn’t have any European football to distract them or wear their squad down.
Napoli won’t have Romelu Lukaku for the first several months of the season due to injury, and it’s unclear where the goals are going to come from, beyond Scott McTominay’s surging runs from midfield.
The Partenopei got marginally better this summer with Premier League legend Kevin De Bruyne joining Lukaku, and their real X-Factor is the squad organization and staunch defending under Antonio Conte, who always has his teams at peak performance when it matters most.
Lukaku will return by the time the Champions League knockout stages get underway, and Napoli have enough quality elsewhere in the squad to pass the relatively low bar that is making it out of the league phase.
I wouldn’t consider Napoli favorites to win the Champions League by any means, but there’s a cliche that defense wins championships, and there’s something about the structure Napoli play in and the heart they show as a team that makes me feel like they could be a real surprise package this season.
1. Arsenal
Arsenal are the obvious choice out of these five to go far in the Champions League knockout phase, as they went through to the semifinals last season, absolutely cooking defending champions Real Madrid in the quarterfinals.
Although that comprehensive display was followed by a sloppier one against PSG in the semifinals, Arsenal still weren’t far off from upending the eventual champions, and they were definitely a lot more competitive than Inter Milan against Paris.
The Gunners, like the other big teams in England, got significantly better this summer. They added another great anchor point in midfield in Martin Zubimendi, a second top playmaker in Eberechi Eze, and, of course, they finally bagged a clinical goal-scorer in Viktor Gyokeres.
If Gyokeres clicks and plays anywhere near the level he showed in the Primeira Liga last season, Arsenal could skip to the front of the line and join the inner circle as favorites in the Champions League, and they are honestly every bit better as a squad than traditional favorites like Bayern Munich and Real Madrid.
At this point in the Mikel Arteta project and after more investment this summer, Arsenal fans want to start seeing tangible results, and when you break down the strengths in their squad and what they showed last year in this competition, they have as good of a shot as anyone at winning the Champions League in 2025/26.
Joe Soriano is the editor of The Trivela Effect and a FanSided Hall of Famer who has covered world football since 2011. He’s led top digital communities like The Real Champs (Real Madrid) and has contributed to sites covering Tottenham, Liverpool, Juventus, and Schalke. Joe’s work has appeared in ESPN, Bleacher Report, and Sports Illustrated. He also helped manage NFL Spin Zone and Daily DDT, covering the NFL and pro wrestling, respectively.