Arizona Cardinals outside linebacker Josh Sweat was recently given a projection for his sack totals in 2025 by ESPN’s Seth Walder, and it may surprise some fans.
Sweat came in 43rd on Walder’s ranking of the NFL’s top-50 sack leaders with a 6.7 sacks rate. Walder said that Sweat’s latest postseason was not factored into his projections, where he registered 10 total tackles for the Philadelphia Eagles, including 2.5 sacks in a Super Bowl LIX win against the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Cardinals are hoping for Sweat to significantly beat this forecast considering the four-year, $76.4 million deal they handed him this offseason. To be fair to Sweat, the model does not consider postseason data, so it’s missing his incredible Super Bowl performance.
Walder added that he has questions regarding how Sweat will look outside of Philadelphia and as the premier pass rusher for the Cardinals.
Eight sacks wasn’t awful in the regular season, but he recorded that production on an elite team and in a season when his pass rush win rate dropped precipitously. Over the past four seasons, Sweat’s pass rush win rate has dropped from 24% to 22% to 20% to 11%. Now he’ll be playing on a team that will likely have fewer leads and lesser defensive talent beside him.
How Josh Sweat looks headed into 2025
Excluding the postseason, Sweat registered 41 tackles and a team-leading eight sacks for the Eagles last season. Sweat’s eight sacks would’ve led the Cardinals last year, where no player on Arizona’s roster had more five five sacks (OLB Zaven Collins).
A factor that Walder didn’t mention was Sweat will once again be playing under Arizona head coach Jonathan Gannon and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis this season. Sweat previously played under Gannon and Rallis from 2021-22 when they were the defensive coordinator and linebackers coaches for the Eagles, respectively.
Under Gannon and Rallis, Sweat made the Pro Bowl in 2021 and had a career-high 48 tackles and 11 sacks in 2022.
In addition to signing Sweat, the Cardinals invested heavily in the defensive front this offseason, adding Dalvin Tomlinson and Calais Campbell in free agency and drafting Walter Nolen and Jordan Burch.
What other players topped sack projections list?
Detroit Lions’ Aidan Hutchinson topped Walder’s list with a projected sack rate of 12.2.
Several other NFC West pass rushers made the list, including San Francisco 49ers’ Nick Bosa (No. 10, 9.7) and Bryce Huff (No. 46, 6.4), Los Angeles Rams’ Jared Verse (No. 24, 7.4) and Kobie Turner (No. 33, seven) and Seattle Seahawks’ Boye Mafe (No. 26, 7.4) and Leonard Williams (No. 47, 6.3).
How was Josh Sweat, other players sack projections calculated on the list?
Walder’s sack leaders projections list was calculated using several factors, including:
Sack total over previous two seasons
Pass rush win rate
Past sack rates for opposing quarterback on each pass rusher’s schedule in 2025
Team win totals
Age.