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Can the Bills attack downfield more in 2025? Here's what the data from last season tells us

Lance Lysowski

Losing two of his top wide receivers last offseason did not affect Josh Allen’s ability to attack defenses with deep passes down the field.

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs (copy)

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen threw three touchdown passes in the postseason that traveled 20-plus yards, according to Pro Football Focus. (Joshua Bessex/Buffalo News) Joshua Bessex/Buffalo News

The NFL MVP connected on 26 passes that traveled 20-plus yards past the line of scrimmage, and the Buffalo Bills’ 72 such throws were the second-most in 2024. It’s an area they want to improve this season, as only two of those completions were for touchdowns. In 2022, Allen had a league-best 34 deep completions, and his output dropped to 28 in 2023.

His top target on deep passes last season, Keon Coleman, has shown improvement in training camp, especially on contested catches, and general manager Brandon Beane signed Joshua Palmer, who averaged at least 15 yards per reception in each of his last two seasons with the Los Angeles Chargers. Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins are gone, but third-year tight end Dalton Kincaid is healthy. The group has a different makeup than it did in 2023, with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.

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Do the Bills have enough to complete more deep passes? Allen threw fewer interceptions on those throws last season, but can he limit those mistakes while completing more high-risk throws? His pass-catchers need to create more separation and take advantage of the single-high safety looks this offense faces.

Bills' deep completions in 2024: play by play

Game 1. vs. Arizona. W, 31-10.

Keon Coleman 28 yards (27 in air). Q4. Bills 24, Cardinals 20. Second and 12.

Game 2. at Miami. W, 31-10.

Khalil Shakir 21 yards (20 in air). Q2. Bills 10, Dolphins 7. Second and 11.

Ty Johnson 33 yards (30 in air). Q2. Bills 10, Dolphins 7. Third and 12.

Game 4. at Baltimore. L, 35-10.

Khalil Shakir 52 yards (37 in air). Q3. Ravens 21, Bills 3. Third and 5.

Keon Coleman 24 yards (23 in air). Q3. Ravens 21, Bills 10. Second and 10.

Keon Coleman 21 yards (20 in air). Q3. Ravens 28, Bills 10. Second and 6.

Game 6. at New York Jets. W, 23-10.

Ray Davis 42 yards (39 in air). Q2. Jets 10, Bills 7. Second and 10.

Curtis Samuel 38 yards (36 in air). Q3. Bills 20, Jets 17. First and 10.

Game 7. vs. Tennessee. W, 34-10.

Dalton Kincaid 25 yards (21 in air). Q3. Bills 17, Titans 10. Third and 8.

Game 8. at Seattle. W, 31-10.

Keon Coleman 25 yards (25 in air). Q1. Bills 0, Seahawks 0. Third and 8.

Khalil Shakir 35 yards (33 in air). Q3. Bills 14, Seahawks 3. First and 10.

Keon Coleman 21 yards (20 in air). Q3. Bills 17, Titans 3. Third and 5.

Dawson Knox 27 yards (23 in air). Q4. Bills 24, Seahawks 3. First and 10.

Game 10. at Indianapolis. W, 30-20.

Dawson Knox 34 yards (28 in air). Q2. Colts 13, Bills 10. Second and 9.

Mack Hollins 44 yards (41 in air). Q2. Bills 17, Colts 13. Third and 10.

Game 11. vs. Kansas City. W, 30-21.

Amari Cooper 30 yards (22 in air). Q1. Bills 0, Chiefs 0. Third and 6.

Amari Cooper 25 yards (23 in air). Q2. Chiefs 7, Bills 6. Second and 11.

Dawson Knox 24 yards (21 in air). Q2. Chiefs 7, Bills 6. First and 10.

Curtis Samuel 21 yards (21 in air). Q2. Chiefs 14, Bills 13. First and 10.

Game 12. vs. San Francisco. W, 35-10.

Dawson Knox 39 yards (21 in air). Q2. Bills 14, 49ers 3. Second and 8.

Game 13. at Los Angeles Rams. L, 44-42.

Khalil Shakir 34 yards (29 in air). Q4. Rams 38, Bills 21. First and 10.

Game 14. at Detroit. W, 48-42.

Ty Johnson 33 yards (25 in air). Q1. Bills 0, Lions 0. Second and 5.

Ty Johnson 24 yards (21 in air). Q1. Bills 0, Lions 0. Third and 5.

Keon Coleman 64 yards (49 in air). Q2. Bills 21, Lions 14. First and 10.

Dalton Kincaid 29 yards (22 in air). Q3. Bills 35, Lions 21. Third and 4

Game 16. vs. Jets. W, 40-14.

Amari Cooper 30 yards (30 in air). Q3. Bills 18, Jets 0. Second and 13

Source: Buffalo News

Inside the Numbers

A closer look at the 26 deep passes Josh Allen completed in 17 games last season.

DISTANCE: A third of the completions (7) were on first down and nine were on second down.

PLAY-ACTION FAKE: Five came on play-action fakes, which is what one would expect in attacking the defense deep.

Drop: Allen threw five fewer touchdown passes on throws of 20-plus yards, but he also had seven fewer interceptions.

Postseason: During the postseason, Allen completed 7 of 14 passes for 239 yards and three touchdowns, according to Pro Football Focus.

Deep Receiving Totals

Keon Coleman (6 deep receptions, 1TD)

Khalil Shakir (4 deep receptions, 0 TD)

Dawson Knox (4 deep receptions, 0 TD)

Ty Johnson (3 deep receptions, 0 TD)

Amari Cooper (3 deep receptions, 1 TD)

Curtis Samuel (2 deep receptions, 0 TD)

Dalton Kincaid (2 deep receptions, 0 TD)

Mack Hollins (1 deep reception, 0 TD)

Ray Davis (1 deep reception, 0 TD)

NFL Deep Completions Leaders 2024

Player, team Comp Yards Pct.

Sam Darnold, Vikings 35 1,192 51.5

Justin Herbert, Chargers 32 985 45.7

Bo Nix, Broncos 31 932 42.5

Geno Smith, Seahawks 30 879 46.2

Jordan Love, Packers 27 978 39.1

Lamar Jackson, Ravens 26 847 38.8

Josh Allen, Bills 26 816 35.6

Source: Pro Football Focus

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