theanalyst.com

Grimsby Town Hoping to Catch a Big Fish With the Visit of Manchester United

After an unbeaten six-game streak to start 2025-26, Grimsby Town welcome Manchester United to Blundell Park in the League Cup second round this week. With Ruben Amorim’s side struggling for form, could a cup upset be on the cards?

When you think of Grimsby, you inevitably think of fish. The town is inextricably linked to the sea fishing industry, and at its peak in the 1950s it was considered one of the largest and busiest fishing ports in the world.

There’s a big fish heading to Lincolnshire on Wednesday night. Grimsby Town have been drawn against one of the most successful English football clubs in history, Manchester United, in the League Cup.

Blundell Park will host a Premier League side in a competitive fixture for the first time in three years, with Grimsby riding the crest of a wave following a brilliant, unbeaten start to the 2025-26 season.

The same couldn’t be said for Ruben Amorim’s Man Utd. Winless in their two games so far in 2025-26, the Portuguese manager has the lowest win rate across all competitions of any permanent United manager since World War II (36.4%). In the Premier League specifically, United have played more games (29) than they’ve won points (28) since he was appointed.

Can the League Two side extend their unbeaten record and cause one of the biggest upsets in their history this week?

Hard Times

One of the 20 oldest professional football clubs in England and formed in the same year as their next opponents United (1878), Grimsby Town were a regular top-flight club either side of World War II.

Seven consecutive seasons in the old First Division between 1934 and 1948 saw them draw an average gate of more than double what they achieve now, but they haven’t been back to dine at the top table since, bouncing between the second and fourth tiers.

Their nadir came in 2009-10, when the club fell out of the EFL with relegation to non-league football.

A terrible start in the National League saw Grimsby lose nine of their first 13 league games that season under Mike Newell, before Neil Woods was drafted in to steady the ship. It was anything but steady, though, as the team went on a club record 25-game winless run and collected just five wins in their remaining 33 league matches. Even worse, they lost embarrassingly to sixth-tier side Bath City at home in the first round of the FA Cup.

After five unsuccessful seasons attempting to escape non-league, including three successive defeats in the National League play-offs, Grimsby finally made their way back in 2015-16 following a play-off final win over Forest Green Rovers at Wembley.

Four comfortable mid-table finishes in League Two followed, but following the Covid-hit 2019-20 campaign, which ended early, Grimsby suffered behind closed doors in 2020-21 and eventually finished bottom of the league and fell back out of the EFL.

They didn’t have to wait as long to get back this time, however, as another play-off final win against Solihull Moors took them back to the fourth tier at the first time of asking, where they have remained ever since.

After an excellent start to the 2025-26 season, they could embark on a successful campaign that’ll see them challenge for promotion back to the third tier for the first time in 22 years.

Attacking Intensity

Five games into the 2025-26 League Two season and Grimsby Town are still unbeaten (W3 D2). This is their longest unbeaten start to an EFL campaign since 1990-91, when they ended up being promoted from the third tier under Alan Buckley.

Grimsby Town Unbeaten Run

Add in their 3-1 League Cup first-round win over Shrewsbury Town that earned them the opportunity to face Man Utd, and they are unbeaten in six competitive matches this season. They haven’t gone seven competitive games unbeaten at the start of a season as an EFL club since 1981-82.

David Artell’s side have shown real attacking intent across their five league games so far in 2025-26, too.

They’ve attempted more non-penalty shots (80) than any other side in the division, with only Artell’s former side Crewe Alexandra (9.4) posting a higher non-penalty xG than they have (8.1).

Grimsby Town Goals in 2025-26

The Mariners have also totalled a league-high 156 touches in the opposition box, which has been a contributing factor towards them being awarded more penalties than any other team in the league (3). Across all competitions, their quick-footed frontline has helped them win five penalties in six games – more than any other club in the top four tiers of English football this season.

This campaign has seen Grimsby play at a much higher intensity without the ball in the attacking half than last season, too.

After five matchdays, only Crewe (44) and Colchester United (42) have made more high turnovers than Grimsby (40) in League Two, and seven of those have led to shots – a tally only three teams can better.

Grimsby Town High Turnovers

They lead the division for pressed sequences (76), which are the number of opposition sequences starting in the defensive third where the opposition makes three or fewer passes, and the sequence ends in their own half.

Only Barnet (7.8) have a lower PPDA (opposition passes per defensive action) than Grimsby (7.9) in League Two this season, as well, another metric that shows they’ve pressed high up the pitch to try and force turnovers nearer the opposition goal.

This is very different to their 2024-25 side, where they ranked in the lower third of the division for all three pressing metrics.

The addition of pacey frontman Jaze Kabia this summer has helped. Signed from Truro City – a club he helped to secure promotion to step 5 of the English league pyramid for the first time ever in 2024-25 – Kabia is their leading goalscorer across all competitions this season with four goals after scoring 16 in the sixth tier last season.

Jaza Kabia Grimsby Town Goals

He’s been backed up from deeper positions by Evan Khouri and Kieran Green, who were both consistent figures in the 2024-25 side that only missed out on a play-off spot on the final day of the season.

Green was left out of the side that drew 1-1 with Accrington at the weekend – potentially rested for the Man Utd tie – but he has been their leading creator this season (11 chances created), just as he was from open-play last season.

It’s not all on their attack, though, as Grimsby have also been solid at the back so far in 2025-26. Only three sides have allowed their opponents a lower xG total than they have (4.2) across five matchdays, and they’ve not allowed their opponents more than three shots on target in any match in League Two this season.

A Difficult Challenge Awaits

It goes without saying that it’s going to be a big ask for Grimsby to defeat Manchester United in their League Cup tie on Wednesday night, despite their home advantage.

Since the start of 2015-16, just seven League Two clubs have knocked out a Premier League side in the League Cup across 58 attempts. Four of those required a penalty shootout to do it.

AFC Wimbledon’s Round 2 success over Ipswich Town after a shootout last term is the only positive outcome across 12 attempts in the previous two seasons of EFL Cup action.

Grimsby have done it before, though. Back in 2005-06, they defeated Tottenham Hotspur 1-0 in this round of the League Cup at Blundell Park thanks to a dramatic 89th-minute goal from Jean-Paul Kalala.

It wasn’t as if Spurs played a thoroughly weakened side, either. Martin Jol used 10 internationals, including five England players on the night. Paul Robinson, Ledley King, Jermaine Jenas, Michael Carrick and Jermain Defoe all played, as did Republic of Ireland striker Robbie Keane.

Grimsby also famously stunned Liverpool at Anfield in the League Cup back in 2001 when they were a Championship club under Lennie Lawrence. Boyhood Liverpool fan Phil Jevons scored a brilliant extra-time winner from distance with seconds remaining to knock the holders out of the competition in the third round after Marlon Broomes had equalised with just seven minutes left to play.

Recent meetings with Premier League clubs in the competition haven’t been so kind to Grimsby. After beating Spurs in 2005-06, they lost in the next round to Newcastle United 1-0. Their 2008-09 clash with Blackburn Rovers saw them go down 4-1, while more recently they have lost 7-1 to Chelsea (2019-20) and 3-0 at home to Nottingham Forest (2022-23).

The Mariners did enjoy an FA Cup run in 2022-23, however, which included a 2-1 away win over then-Premier League side Southampton at St Mary’s in the fifth round, before they were eventually knocked out in the quarter-finals by top-flight side Brighton & Hove Albion.

Grimsby Beating Southampton in the FA Cup 2022-23

Despite huge shocks against then-third-tier sides MK Dons (losing 4-0 in 2014-15) and York City (losing 4-3 on aggregate in 1995-96), Manchester United have never lost an EFL Cup tie against fourth-tier opposition, winning all 11 such matches.

But this is not the Manchester United of old. This version is more vulnerable than it’s been on the pitch for a long, long time, and an in-form Grimsby will be well aware of that.

Who’s to say the Mariners can’t catch another big fish?

League Two Stats Opta

Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over onX, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.

Read full news in source page