Carolina Panthers v Atlanta Falcons
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As the regular season approaches, it’s only right for predictions to be made. It’s not about purely predicting records. Assessing how players will fare on the field is another way to prepare for the upcoming season. Instead of picking games, let’s dive into where the Falcons will succeed and fall short this season.
To keep a solid balance, I’ve added five positive predictions for statistical achievements and impressive individual developments. Five negative predictions are here, too, identifying which specific players and overall personnel groups fail to meet expectations. Some of these selections will be looked back on fondly. Some of these picks will be laughed out of the room. Some will be unfortunately accurate, or thankfully miss the mark for the Falcons in their playoff pursuit.
Michael Penix Jr. throws 27 touchdowns: Predicting a quarterback with only three NFL starts to throw 30 touchdowns is a bit over the top. While a talented passer aligned with an offensive coordinator who wants to be aggressive is going to create endless possibilities, let’s take into account that one of the league’s most electrifying players is in Atlanta’s backfield. There are only so many touchdowns that can go around.
Penix Jr. proves to be a success in his first full season as a starter. His astonishing arm strength, knack for using his eyes to force defenders out of position, and ability to make tight window throws will result in numerous highlight-reel plays. The completion percentage won’t be as high as you’d like to see from a franchise quarterback due to his throwing motion and inconsistent touch. Penix will still flourish, throwing for the most touchdowns by a Falcons quarterback since Matt Ryan in 2018.
Jessie Bates hits double-digits in turnovers: The stellar safety sounded invigorated when talking about Jeff Ulbrich’s defense with Brian Baldinger and Cameron Wolfe. The mixture of coverage alignments and added schematic aggression will give Bates more opportunities to make game-changing plays. The defensive scheme was either too complacent or disoriented last season, forcing Bates to play hero mode at times and take frequent risks.
While Bates impressively produced nine combined turnovers (interceptions, fumbles forced, fumbles recovered), the lack of support around him was glaring. An upgraded pass rush and enhanced coverage variety schematically will put Bates in better positions to force turnovers. After two consecutive seasons with nine combined turnovers, Bates will get over the hump and earn double digits. It would be something if he surpassed his career-high four forced fumbles from last season.
Inserting Ryan Neuzil into the starting lineup by default goes wrong: It’s somewhat understandable that the Falcons didn’t aggressively pursue acquiring a center. They needed to focus on improving the defense across all three levels. There weren’t many quality centers in free agency, with Drew Dalman being the most coveted player on the market. Once it became evident that the franchise was set on drafting defensive players, Neuzil became the most realistic option.
That decision will prove to be costly. Neuzil struggled with diagnosing pressures and looked overwhelmed in individual battles. He was penalized seven times in nine games, per Pro Football Focus. While the former undrafted free agent had promising moments as a run blocker, there were several instances where he failed to make the necessary reach block to execute the run design. Neuzil may not be a good enough center to start for an offensive line with high aspirations.
Too soon for Ruke Orhorhoro: Orhorhoro will show flashes of promise, but the likelihood of him playing the most snaps out of all the interior linemen seems overwhelming for such a raw player with limited experience. He would be far better suited as a rotational piece, finding his niche in the NFL. Putting him in the starting lineup without much support around him will be detrimental to the defense.
Orhorhoro must improve his hand usage and play with better pad level. Those are two issues that could lead to him being swallowed up against the run. Considering the lack of veteran depth outside of David Onyemata, it’s likely Orhorhoro will face his share of double teams. Taking on multiple blockers with his lack of experience and technique could be another notable problem. The coaching staff will wish they had added more to the interior line if Orhorhoro doesn’t step up.
Darnell Mooney sets a career high in receiving yards: Given the dynamic wide receiver’s uncertain health status going into the season after suffering a shoulder injury, it could take until October for him to be 100% back in rhythm with the offense. That doesn’t diminish the massive potential Mooney has within a more diverse offense. How productive he was in a rigid setup with Kirk Cousins speaks volumes about his capabilities.
Mooney was tied with Justin Jefferson for the most 20+ yard receptions going into Week 10 last season. His ability to create separation, accelerate past defenders, and play bigger than his size makes him a big play waiting to happen. If there are no setbacks in his recovery and Penix Jr. is as good as expected, Mooney will surpass the 1,055 receiving yards he produced in 2021 when Justin Fields and Andy Dalton were throwing him the ball.
Not enough at inside linebacker: As anemic as the pass rush and as lackadaisical as the coverage alignments were, the inside linebacker position was a fatal flaw last season. Opposing offenses made it a priority to target their running backs and tight ends in exploiting the lack of range at linebacker. Troy Andersen’s injury and Nate Landman’s drastic decline left them without solutions.
For all the enthusiasm surrounding Divine Deablo, his on-field performance in Las Vegas doesn’t indicate a player who can significantly improve the position. Deablo is an athletic linebacker with impressive length. The lack of discipline against the run was most concerning, where he got caught in the wrong gap or unnecessarily ran downhill into a blocker. Kaden Elliss can only do so much with his skill set, being best suited near the line of scrimmage. Unless Andersen can somehow stay on the field and make genuine strides, it’s hard to envision this position being a strength with Deablo as the lone addition.
Not enough at cornerback opposite A.J. Terrell: The defense played off coverage at a league-leading rate of 71%, per The Athletic’s Robert Mays. They also gave up the third most average cushion in the league. Jimmy Lake’s ultra-conservative, don’t get beat deep, style of scheme gave the cornerbacks protection, while opposing quarterbacks opted to complete high-percentage throws in the short and intermediate middle areas of the field. Ulbrich isn’t going to be reliant on playing that type of Cover 4-type zone coverage.
Asking Mike Hughes to play more man coverage will be detrimental to the defense. As well as Hughes played last season, it largely came from him being a consistent open-field tackler and being positionally disciplined in zone. Playing more press coverage against outside wide receivers will be too overwhelming. The same can be said for Clark Phillips, who has glaring physical limitations and struggles to stay balanced against bigger receivers. Implementing more aggression will benefit the defense in certain aspects, but the outside cornerback group opposite Terrell is likely going to suffer from acclimating to the schematic changes.
Third-year leap for Matthew Bergeron: There were notable strides made in the left guard’s overall game last season. He started developing into a mauler as a run blocker. In the massive upset win over Philadelphia, Bergeron played an influential role in the running game’s impressive efficiency. The positioning on reach blocks and the power generated on combos created holes all game long. When the Falcons were most productive on the ground, Bergeron consistently stood out in making a difference.
What Bergeron must do to take the next step in his career is to be more consistent in pass protection and disciplined as a player. According to Pro Football Focus, he committed 12 penalties last season. That includes multiple personal foul penalties. Reducing the penalties while strengthening his punch against interior tackles in individual battles will do wonders for his career. Fans should be confident in his development process, as by the end of the season, the Falcons will have two star guards anchoring their offensive line.
The coaching staff takes too long to utilize rookie defensive backs: One of the biggest concerns from Morris last season was his insistence on continuing to play underperforming veterans over younger talent who deserved more opportunities. Zach Harrison and Orhorhoro are two players who instantly come to mind. JD Bertrand should have played more over Landman when healthy. Could a year of reflection help Morris become more decisive in making personnel changes?
Based on his desire to sign former Rams and reunite with Ulbrich, there are indications that Morris will stick to certain principles. That results in Jordan Fuller and Dee Alford being in the starting lineup longer than they should be based on on-field performance. Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman Jr. were drafted to bring ball skills, speed, aggression, and awareness to a secondary in dire need of youth and playmaking ability. They will eventually receive more playing time, but it will be weeks later than it should have been following rough defensive performances against the Commanders, Bills, and 49ers.
James Pearce Jr. produces eight sacks: The rookie class will still make a substantial impact. Expecting a rookie edge rusher who will likely be used situationally to earn nearly double-digit sacks is audacious. As talented as the two-time first-team All-SEC edge rusher is, Leonard Floyd and Arnold Ebiketie will receive their opportunities to rush the passer. That will allow Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker to be brought in gradually instead of being thrown into the fire playing 45-50 snaps a game.
Pearce Jr. possesses the traits to maximize opportunities. His explosive get-off, long arms, and change-of-direction ability will be a nuisance for opposing tackles. There are concerns about his slender frame, but it didn’t stop him from shining in the premier conference in college football. He will endure some quiet stretches as he acclimates to the pro level. That won’t prevent him from making his mark.
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