Restricted free agency has not been kind to Jonathan Kuminga, Josh Giddey, Quentin Grimes and Cam Thomas this offseason. All four remain at a contractual standstill that's showing no signs of abating anytime soon.
Jake Fischer of The Stein Line recently reported that their respective standoffs with the Golden State Warriors, Chicago Bulls, Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets may stretch into late September. Each has until Oct. 1 to accept their respective qualifying offers, which are one-year contracts that would turn them into unrestricted free agents in 2026.
All four teams appear to be playing hardball because the league's salary-cap landscape gives them most of the leverage. The Nets are the only team that still has cap space, although a few teams have yet to touch their $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception (including the Bulls). However, a deal starting in that range might not be enough to pry any of Kuminga, Giddey, Grimes or Thomas away from their respective teams.
Restricted free agency has always been far more in favor of teams than it has of players, but it's rare to get this far into the summer with four marquee names still on the market. The Cleveland Cavaliers sign-and-traded Lauri Markkanen to the Bulls in late August 2021 to resolve his drawn-out restricted free agency, but most major business is typically settled by this time of year.
Is this a harbinger of how restricted free agency will operate moving forward? Or was this year just an outlier? The answer likely lies somewhere in the middle, although restricted free agency might be slightly more in the players' favor in 2026.
A Potentially Loaded Restricted-Free-Agent Class
A handful of big names from the 2022 NBA draft class have already cashed in with massive extensions this offseason. Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero and Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams each signed five-year max contracts that could be worth as much as 30% of the 2026-27 salary cap if they earn certain awards this coming season. Thunder center Chet Holmgren also received a five-year max deal, although his doesn't have the escalator language, so it's guaranteed to begin at 25% of next year's cap.
Houston Rockets forward Jabari Smith Jr. is the only other member of the 2022 draft class to sign an extension thus far. He landed a five-year, $122 million deal with a somewhat unique structure. Meanwhile, No. 19 overall pick Jake LaRavia signed a two-year, $12 million contract with the Los Angeles Lakers in free agency, which the Memphis Grizzlies made possible by declining their team option on him for the 2025-26 season.
More first-round picks from the 2022 draft class figure to sign extensions between now and the Oct. 20 deadline. Before free agency began, Keith Smith of Spotrac predicted that Sacramento Kings forward Keegan Murray, Detroit Pistons guard Jaden Ivey, Indiana Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin, Portland Trail Blazers guard Shaedon Sharpe, Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels, San Antonio Spurs forward Jeremy Sochan, Pistons center Jalen Duren, Houston Rockets forward Tari Eason, Denver Nuggets wing Christian Braun and Utah Jazz center Walker Kessler would all land new deals. If that happens, restricted free agency will basically be dead on arrival next offseason.
Perhaps these fourth-year players and their agents will take note of what’s happening with Kuminga, Giddey, Grimes and Thomas and be more proactive about coming to terms on an extension. They might not want to deal with the uncertainty of a drawn-out free agency. Then again, they might be walking into a far more favorable financial landscape than the free agents did this offseason.
A Friendlier Cap-Space Environment
As of now, eight teams are projected to have cap space next offseason, according to ESPN's Bobby Marks. Many of those teams—the Nets, Bulls, Jazz, Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards—are in the midst of either retooling or rebuilding. They're the exact type of teams that might prefer to take a flier on a young restricted free agent rather than a more established, win-now veteran.
Granted, plenty will change over the next year. Teams will continue to make moves that impact their financial outlook beyond the 2025-26 campaign, whether it's adding salary via trade or signing players to extensions. Rebuilding teams will likely be willing to flip expiring contracts for longer-term deals as long as there's extra compensation attached.
What happens over the next two months could help inform those decisions, too. If a number of 2022 first-round picks fail to reach agreements on extensions, some teams might try to preserve cap space to make a run at them in restricted free agency. But if most of the big-name free agents are off the board by November, teams will have less incentive to preserve money for next offseason.
The NBA's smaller-than-expected salary-cap projection for the 2026-27 season is another wild card that could influence these negotiations. Some teams might be more reluctant to hand out big-money deals now that the cap isn't expected to increase by the full 10% year-over-year for the next few seasons. Locking players up on long-term deals would have been smart in that scenario, but their 8% annual raises could now outpace the growth of the cap.
Murray, Ivey, Mathurin, Sharpe, Daniels, Duren, Eason, Sochan, Braun, Kessler and Mark Williams could all command significant interest in restricted free agency if they decide against signing an extension by October. The more of them that bypass a new deal for now, the higher the likelihood that they'll face a friendlier financial landscape next offseason as teams jostle to preserve cap space for them.
With that said, incumbent teams will still hold plenty of leverage. They have the right to match any offer sheet that their restricted free agent signs with another team, and RFAs aren't allowed to officially sign offer sheets until after the July Moratorium ends on July 6.
The NBA’s latest collective bargaining agreement did shorten the window that incumbent teams have to match—it's now between 36-60 hours—but free-agent suitors still must keep that cap space clear for the entire first week of free agency. Many aren't willing to take that risk, particularly since the incumbent team could match and leave them empty-handed.
We'll know by late October how many restricted free agents are set to hit the market next offseason. But the experiences of Kuminga, Giddey, Grimes and Thomas could wind up being more one-offs than a sign of what's to come.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats viaNBA.com,PBPStats,Cleaning the Glass orBasketball Reference. All salary information viaSpotrac and salary-cap information viaRealGM. All odds viaFanDuel Sportsbook.
Follow Bryan onBluesky.