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NFC South preview: If Baker Mayfield’s Buccaneers are fine, that’s enough

A capsule look at the NFC South heading into the 2025 season, with teams listed in predicted order of finish.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

BetMGM says: Win Super Bowl: 30-1; Over-under win total: 9.5

Strengths: Chris Godwin is set to return after a season-ending ankle injury in 2024. Mike Evans is trying to make it 12 consecutive years with 1,000 receiving yards in what should be one of the most fun (and one of the only fun) storylines in the NFC South. Tampa’s receiver duo is probably the best position group in the division, giving Baker Mayfield plenty to work with and a healthy counterbalance to the Bucky Irving-led run game.

Weaknesses: Opposing quarterbacks gashed Tampa over the middle of the field at times last year. The secondary remains wobbly, but if the Bucs can field just a league-average defense, that should be enough to buoy them to a comfortable division win.

Atlanta Falcons

Michael Penix Jr. (9) of the Atlanta Falcons scrambles against the Denver Broncos during the fourth quarter at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver on Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

Michael Penix Jr. (9) of the Atlanta Falcons scrambles against the Denver Broncos during the fourth quarter at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver on Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

BetMGM says: Win Super Bowl: 80-1; Over-under win total: 7.5

Strengths: Bijan Robinson broke out with 1,456 rushing yards in his second season while establishing himself as one of the NFL’s best pass-catchers out of the backfield as well. Atlanta’s offensive line should be effective at supporting him again. Receiver Drake London looks like a franchise player. If young quarterback Michael Penix Jr. can hold it all together, the Falcons have the best chance at challenging Tampa.

Weaknesses: This was one of the worst teams in the NFL at pressuring opposing quarterbacks last year. If that’s going to remain the Falcons’ reality, they’re going to need elite defensive backs, and they don’t really have that either. If there’s any hope, it’s that Atlanta drafted pass rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. in the first round.

Carolina Panthers

Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young breaks away from Cleveland Browns defensive end Sam Kamara during the first half of a preseason NFL football game on Friday, Aug. 8, 2025, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)

Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young breaks away from Cleveland Browns defensive end Sam Kamara during the first half of a preseason NFL football game on Friday, Aug. 8, 2025, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)

BetMGM says: Win Super Bowl: 150-1; Over-under win total: 6.5

Strengths: Make no mistake, the Panthers aren’t going to be good. But they do have something to build on: A reinvigorated version of Bryce Young that finished strong in 2024 after he was benched early in the season. Carolina’s offensive line was not awful, and No. 8 overall pick Tetairoa McMillan is set to join Young’s receiver corps.

Weaknesses: This was a historically bad defense last year. Like, “most points ever allowed in an NFL season” bad. (The new record is 534.) Using the increasingly ubiquitous metric Expected Points Added (EPA), Carolina was the worst team against the run and second-worst against the pass. If nothing else, a handful of Panthers games should be fun to watch.

New Orleans Saints

Zach Allen (99) of the Denver Broncos tackles Alvin Kamara (41) of the New Orleans Saints during the second half of the Broncos' 33-10 win at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana on Thursday, Oct. 17, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

Zach Allen (99) of the Denver Broncos tackles Alvin Kamara (41) of the New Orleans Saints during the second half of the Broncos’ 33-10 win at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana on Thursday, Oct. 17, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

BetMGM says: Win Super Bowl: 300-1; Over-under win total: 6.5

Strengths: Alvin Kamara ran for 950 yards last season, and the Saints are going to need him to run for a whole lot more now (see below). New Orleans also has some serviceable pieces on the defensive line between Chase Young and Carl Granderson.

Weaknesses: Derek Carr’s unexpected retirement announcement in May threw a wrench in Kellen Moore’s debut campaign at the helm (though Carr’s injury situation might’ve jeopardized the season regardless). All expectations seem to be down the drain at this point, with quarterback options ranging from Spencer Rattler to Tyler Shough to Jake Haener.

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