All’s quiet in the NBA, but that’s to be expected.
Even NBA GMs need downtime to prepare for their fantasy football drafts.
By mid-September, though, someone’s first-round pick will be injured and another’s second-round sleeper will be in a timeshare … and there you’ll have it — football disinterest and the first let’s-make-a-deal phone call that sparks a flurry of NBA activity on the eve of training camp.
The potential for several intriguing deals — or perhaps the biggest blockbuster in league history — still exists, and Golden State will be calling the shots.
Two key factors point to a lot of movement before the run to the 2026 championship:
Quality restricted free agents
Much has been made of the stalemates between Jonathan Kuminga and the Warriors, and Josh Giddey and the Bulls. On their own, that duo could shake up the preseason landscape via sign-and-trade deals.
There’s also the Nets’ Cam Thomas and the 76ers’ Quentin Grimes.
No, they can’t just swap spots in some bizarre four-player carousel. NBA rules don’t allow that. Which is exactly what makes big trades possible — even involving four other teams.
Reality setting in
With nothing better to do in August, NBA oddsmakers have started publishing predicted win totals for 2026.
No surprise: The Thunder are heavy favorites to lead the West in regular-season wins. In the East, it’s the Cavaliers and Knicks at the top.
The shocker? The Rockets are projected for the second-most wins in the West. That can’t sit well with the Nuggets, Lakers, Clippers and Mavericks, who all see themselves as contenders — yet at this point aren’t even considered in the Rockets’ league.
Same story in the East. Falling behind Cleveland and New York is one thing. But for established powers like the Bucks, Celtics, 76ers, Heat and Pacers to be slotted behind the Magic? That’s a slap in the face.
Nothing awakens a front office from a comfortable offseason like being publicly told you’re mid. And oddsmakers just delivered it.
So let the reshuffling begin — and the best place to start is Kuminga.
The Kuminga dilemma
Let’s be clear: The fascinating young forward will not be playing for the Warriors next season. He doesn’t want it and the Warriors don’t want it. That’s usually a good indication.
So why no trade yet? Think back to the 2025 deadline, when the Warriors were big-game hunting. Crickets … until Mike Dunleavy Jr. pulled Jimmy Butler out of nowhere at the buzzer.
It’s called patience. That’s why Dunleavy has insisted on a first-rounder being attached to the lowball offers he’s received for Kuminga. No takers.
But Dunleavy still has a card to play — and it’s a big one.
The 2028 problem
In the NBA, there are two types of pick swaps. The first is simple: I’ll take your pick this season, you take mine in another.
The other is personal: a swap in the same draft. It’s a way of saying, “We’re going to be better than you, so we’ll take your draft pick and you can have ours.” The other team, of course, replies, “Bet.”
Never underestimate the horsepower of an NBA ego.
The Warriors can dangle their 2028 first-rounder — the year after Steph Curry, Butler, Draymond Green and Steve Kerr are expected to ride off together. That pick could easily turn into a lottery favorite. Everyone knows it, including Golden State.
They won’t trade it outright, but in a pick swap? Absolutely. Especially if they dust off the Jordan Poole playbook.
Remember Poole? Persona non grata, shipped to Washington, where the Wizards cratered from a mid-30s win team to the teens. Kuminga could have that same impact on a wannabe contender like the Raptors, Nets, Hornets, Kings, Suns, Pelicans or Jazz.
Teams might not realize it until too late.
All it takes is one sucker.
The Hornets have Grant Williams, a perfect salary match. The Suns have Grayson Allen. The Pelicans have Herbert Jones.
Would you trade your 2028 first-rounder for the chance to flip Kuminga into the centerpiece of your rebuild?
Other teams will come calling if Golden State dangles its most valuable future asset. GMs get very creative when their backs are against the wall and someone drops a silencer on the table.
It’s only 10 p.m. in NBA time. Dunleavy is still debating: Ja’Marr Chase or Jahmyr Gibbs in Round 1 of his football draft?
At 11:30, that 2028 pick might be on the table. If so, by 11:59, the NBA landscape could look very different.
Stay tuned.