Indiana redshirt junior quarterback Fernando Mendoza could be on the precipice of a life-changing year. The No. 4-ranked transfer QB will play his first snap for the Hoosiers in just three days when IU's 2025 season kicks off, and if he can reach the lofty potential and expectations placed upon him, Mendoza might not be in college a year from now.
On Wednesday, CBS Sports' Mike Renner released an updated 2026 NFL Draft mock draft with a major surprise at the very top. Renner projects Mendoza to be the No. 1 overall pick by the Cleveland Browns in next year's draft.
"The Browns will almost certainly be going quarterback if they end up picking No. 1 overall," Renner wrote, "and with Arch Manning expected to return to school, Fernando Mendoza feels like the best fit of the bunch for head coach Kevin Stefanski's offense (should the two-time NFL Coach of the Year be retained). He's got a plus NFL arm paired with quick decision-making and tight-window accuracy. He'll get a chance to shine on a bigger stage this year at Indiana after carrying Cal the past two seasons."
Renner's current draft rankings tab Mendoza as the No. 13 overall draft prospect and No. 3 overall quarterback prospect. Only Texas' Arch Manning and LSU's Garrett Nussmeier rank ahead of Mendoza among 2026 draft-eligible quarterbacks, while Penn State's Drew Allar, South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers and Clemson's Cade Klubnik follow behind Mendoza.
Mendoza would the first-ever Indiana quarterback drafted in the first round and IU's first first-round draft selection since Thomas Lewis in 1994. No Indiana quarterback has ever been drafted higher than the sixth round, which Nate Sudfeld last achieved in 2016.
Mendoza's latest high-praise prognostication is one in a long list of simmering hype this offseason.
Mendoza was tabbed as an NFL Draft "sleeper" by ESPN following positive remarks from NFL scouts. The 6-foot-5, 225-pounder is already an intriguing prospect due to his size and physical measurements, but his arm talent is garnering even more rave reviews.
"Watch that dude throw back-shoulder fades and you see the touch, timing and power to be a baller in the NFL," an NFC East scout told ESPN. "... He got hit and pressured a lot last year behind a bad O-line, so that's something to watch for this year. Is he a little traumatized by what he had in front of him last year?"
While at Cal, Mendoza played behind a porous offensive line which allowed the 5th-most sacks per game among all FBS teams. The pass protection struggles led to Mendoza taking over 40 sacks throughout the campaign and forced him to make unconventional plays while evading pressure.
Fortunately, Indiana's offensive line should be a significant upgrade for Mendoza in addition to the wealth of playmakers at running back, wide receiver and tight end. Mendoza's successful transition from Cal to Indiana in his first season will be a major factor in his NFL Draft stock.
"Who will be the transfer quarterback to rocket up draft boards this year? A lot of early buzz is centered around former Cal quarterback Mendoza ... and for good reason," wrote ESPN's Matt Miller. "After a breakout last season in which he threw for 3,004 yards with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions, Mendoza transferred to Indiana to play in Curt Cignetti's Air Raid offense. Expectations soon followed the redshirt junior, especially considering Cignetti's scheme and the presence of legit NFL wide receiver prospect Elijah Sarratt on Indiana's roster."