The NBA offseason has come and gone! Mostly!
Outside of some restricted free agency nonsense, we know the shape the league is headed in next season, and we know the shape of the Phoenix Suns. With that, it is time for our annual revisiting of the pecking order in the Western Conference heading into next season, starting from the bottom up.
Spoiler: It will not take us long to get to the local team.
Tier 7: Not happy to be here
15. Utah Jazz
Utah belligerently tanked last year. It was astounding. The Jazz had a game in Phoenix at one point in the season that was absolutely winnable and the lack of desire in going after it was blatant.
Svi Mykhailiuk relished the freedom of an ultra-green light he had, hurting his team more than helping to a degree I have rarely seen. How he played usually gets a guy subbed out. Instead, he kept playing, all while the fourth quarter was trickling down and both Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton sat on the bench with minute totals in the low 20s. They didn’t check in until midway through it, and by then, the damage had been done.
That made it easy to take solace in Will Hardy getting a contract extension this summer, a nod to a good head coach having to suffer through an effort he was surely told was going to yield Cooper Flagg. Instead, the league’s worst record landed the No. 5 overall pick, as the new lottery odds are designed to do.
That was a major, major problem for the Jazz, because all their post-Donovan Mitchell/Rudy Gobert era rebuild has yielded is young players who are “fine.” Keyonte George is fine. Walker Kessler is fine. Isaiah Collier is fine. Kyle Filipowski is fine. Taylor Hendricks is fine (if he can ever stay healthy).
Cody Williams is very not fine, coming off an awful rookie season in which he was selected one pick before Matas Buzelis, two before Nikola Topic, four before Bub Carrington, five before Ke’lel Ware and six before Jared McCain. McCain is a stud, Buzelis and Ware show flashes to become one, Topic could do the same this year and Carrington should at least be solid. Whoops.
The Jazz need a star, which is why taking Ace Bailey at No. 5 — even through the “I could not care less about this NBA offseason subplot” award winner of him trying to force his way to another team and then acting like he totally did not do that and is stoked about Utah — was a win for them. Walter Clayton Jr. has a shot too, and coming from someone who likes Collier, they need to find Clayton playing time right away. He’s legit.
Markkanen was a true star two years ago, but there’s some combination of under-the-radar injuries and the tank affecting that ascension from being maintained. While he’s still a trade chip, his value has now entered a strange paradigm, which will surely make it super easy and chill to negotiate with Danny Ainge, right?
In the meantime, Utah has continued to stockpile picks, so it will get this right eventually. It’s just going to take a while, and the Jazz are probably fine with biding their time in the basement.
Tier 6: Remember when these 3 teams used to be really fun just 2-3 years ago?
14. Phoenix Suns
As listeners and readers will be familiar with by now, I land rather low on this iteration of the Suns. When simply taking a tally of the talent on the roster, it’s threatening for 40 wins. But just about none of it comes together.
The way in which this Phoenix team exceeds expectations is by getting the absolute most out of Devin Booker, and that doesn’t seem possible while sharing a backcourt with Jalen Green, a player with plenty of upside left to untap that the Suns would be wise to explore. That now becomes part of Booker’s responsibility, and a shoot-first two-guard isn’t a snug fit to say the least.
The large drop-off in playmaking ability from Booker to Green, and then Green to backup point guard Collin Gillespie, is a massive concern. Booker and Green have to manage that load while playing defense on the other end, by the way.
The Suns’ second-best player is either Green or Mark Williams, who has missed more games than he has played through three injury-riddled seasons so far. The wing rotation is actually fairly strong, but Dillon Brooks, Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neale are not the type of bigger wings (like Ryan Dunn) you’d want alongside that backcourt, as Phoenix will be an undersized team for the third straight year. Juggling playing time for those vets will become a chore at times.
Nigel Hayes-Davis being a successful NBA reclamation project would be a big-time help, as would either rookies Khaman Maluach or Rasheer Fleming being ready right away and providing some pop off the bench. Oso Ighodaro should solidify himself as a solid piece for Phoenix’s future, assuming the Suns can find him playing time.
That is on the floor. Off it, there should be angst about where the future is going, and that usually has a way of trickling its way back onto said floor.
In a “typing this out to make sure we all fully soak in what’s going on here” manuever, this offseason has included an internal letter getting out that has the owner of the team stating he will now be far more directly involved in the basketball operations elements of the organization, doing so by hiring a general manager he’s tight with and one who has one year of official front office experience and then that GM conducting a head-coaching search littered with question marks.
If that wasn’t happening and the Western Conference wasn’t a war field, this could be a surprisingly plucky bunch to vie for a play-in spot. But it is happening. And this conference is a war field.
13. New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans drew the most ire of any team this offseason for its moves. And yet, on paper (there he goes with this shtick again), this team could actually be really good. If the franchise wasn’t hexed by an evil spirit from the 1600s, buying the squad would make sense.
Zion Williamson is a top-30 guy when healthy. Trey Murphy II has emerged during this curse as a premier shooter and potential All-Star in the future. Herb Jones keeps getting better as an elite 3-and-D support player, while Yves Missi might go as high as the top-5 in a redraft of last year’s class. That’s a tantalizing quartet, and that’s before you remember Dejounte Murray should make it a fivesome if he wasn’t out for the year.
But we know how this is going to go. Williamson will get hurt, leaving New Orleans compromised from a lead playmaking situation, and then more unfortunate injuries will follow, like the last few seasons. That is why the Pelicans traded for Jordan Poole and drafted lead guard Jeremiah Fears and center Derik Queen.
The issue is the Pelicans acquired Poole in a C.J. McCollum trade that turned his expiring into another year of a $30-plus million salary, and to get Queen, they traded up in the draft using an unprotected 2026 first-round pick.
Poole further became a walking meme in Washington, but heat-check guards with ultra confidence that are efficient enough generally get underrated. Golden State does not win a ring without him in 2022, but he’s regressed since, albeit in poor situations. An interesting, under-the-radar crossroads year is coming up for him.
The Pelicans as a fit for Queen is fascinating because they drafted the prospect with the most conditioning concerns after going through that nightmare for this whole decade, all while acing yet another draft pick last year in Missi, another 5. But Queen as a playmaking hub would be a bountiful relief of pressure off Williamson and the wings. Sometimes spacing isn’t everything, and watching him work two-man game with Williamson will be one of those qualifiers.
Bizarrely, New Orleans tripled down on 5s by signing Kevon Looney, so that’s another odd wrinkle for Queen and Missi that suggests these whackos really think those guys can play together for legitimate stretches. Queen’s jumper is unproven and a mystery but maybe the Pelicans, who once again have crushed on a lot of scouting work the last handful of years, identified something crucial there.
Fears will swing how the next three years go for New Orleans. He has arguably the largest gap between his ceiling and floor, armed with a lightning handle and the ability to get to the basket. If the ancillary pieces, such as his pull-up shooting and ball-screen game, come together around that tremendous base, he’s got All-NBA nods in his future.
Minor leaguewide subplot to watch: The next two seasons on Williamson’s contract beyond this year are not guaranteed.
Per The Athletic’s Will Guillory, Williamson has 20% guaranteed for next year if “he passes all six of his weigh-in checkpoints during the prior season,” 40% if he plays at least 41 games this year and then two more chunks of 20% for a 51-game and 61-game threshold. It has been a sad career to watch, drowned out under the weight of “if’s” as soon as it started.
And he just turned 25. (Side note, think about that type of contract structuring as inspo for the Suns with Mark Williams next summer).
12. Sacramento Kings
What in the Sam Hill is going on here?
After winning 48 and 46 games the two years prior to last season, the Kings started 13-18 and fired Mike Brown. They traded De’Aaron Fox in only the way they could, bringing back Zach LaVine as the primary return, and subsequently went 14-18 with him in the lineup. That is despite having Domantas Sabonis, arguably a top-five center when it was inarguable two years ago, and the criminally underrated DeMar DeRozan.
Losing Fox, playing without a point guard and pushing fit concerns to the extreme submarined what was 50 wins on paper. Suns fans should be either violently nodding along, trembling or both.
To fix that, the Kings … overpaid for Dennis Schroder? That solves the point guard problem in a way, but is still a clunky fit. Meanwhile, they are still going through the laborious restricted free agency dance with Malik Monk, who tried his best to run offense once Fox left. It’s now tough to expect what Year 2 for Devin Carter could bring. He spent most of his rookie season injured after getting tons of pre-draft hype as an explosive two-way combo guard.
Carter being a contributor would go a long way because the depth is in a tough spot beyond him and Keon Ellis, which again is ringing Suns fans’ alarm bells seeing such an unbalanced roster. A strong 2025 draft class comprised of Nique Clifford and Maxime Raynaud, two prospects raved about in this space as possible Phoenix targets, could help change that. Keegan Murray has been poised for a breakout for long enough that we can now confidently say that possibility has fizzled.
You are not crazy if you talk yourself into this team. Because, as previously stated, all the talent is there. You just need a friend to give you a lil’ smack to remind you that this is the Kings and this is what happened last year. I needed that friend last year before placing them sixth but will be that friend for you this time around.
Tier 5: Good chance they’re way better than this but there’s a but
11. Dallas Mavericks
I want to preface that I can see 5-11 finishing in any order. Tiers are helpful in creating the distinction of a gap between certain teams, but the size of the gap from later Tiers 3 to 2 is larger than the tiny one between 3 and 5.
Dallas is a tough read. Kyrie Irving is out until at least the turn of the new year, and probably longer. Until then, it is a D’Angelo Russell and Cooper Flagg vehicle running the show to maximize a superb trio of bigs in Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford.
Flagg’s got a ton of hype, anointed by many as the best No. 1 pick to come out of college in at least a decade. As a reminder, 2020-22 featured Anthony Edwards, Cade Cunningham and Paolo Banchero. That’s pretty lofty company to surpass! As you can tell, I’m not quite there. In the tiring “player comp” exercise, I’m pegging Flagg somewhere around a more offensive-minded Andre Iguodala, which is a pretty awesome basketball player but never a guy who will be a top-5 player and probably even top-10.
If that’s wrong and Flagg is indeed him, it’s exactly what the Mavericks require. Russell unlocking his Brooklyn form would probably be the only other way this ship is steered, and saying this as someone who has been a fan of his game, he’s past that now. Davis will miss a large stretch of games at some point, while Lively is having the not-so-chill development for young 7-footers of a surgery getting completed on his foot.
The depth is great, but it will only matter if the top-end production is there while Irving heals up. Naji Marshall was terrific to close the year, P.J. Washington should settle back into a complementary role and Max Christie has a good shot to be the best wing out of these three. We didn’t even cover Klay Thompson, Caleb Martin or Dante Exum yet, winning players in different ways.
That was purposefully presented to you in that way because it’s six solid-to-good wings for a team with three starting-caliber centers that needs another ball-handler. There’s a trade to find here surely, right? It’s late August, so enough time has passed to make you believe that’s not happening anymore.
Building a tower of “if’s” will take the shape less of a magnificent skyline skyscraper and more of a harrowing red flag, but if Flagg is Dallas’ second prince that was promised, if the bigs stay healthy, if Russell can be dependable and if Irving looks like himself when he comes back toward the end of the year, this should be a fantastic team at full strength.
10. Memphis Grizzlies
Instinctively, you are supposed to see a team trade someone for four first-round picks and believe that team is going to be bad the next season. That is almost always how it works.
Memphis has a good chance to be the exception. Four first-round picks and a swap would always be the height of Desmond Bane’s value. He was a vital part of what the Grizzlies did, but they needed a shakeup. Even though some of the motivation here was money-related to keep the tax bill in order, the core of this team is still in its mid-20s with more young talent coming as well. All in all, good work done.
A noteworthy stat for you: Since the year Ja Morant made his first All-Star team (four years ago), Memphis’ record when he plays is 112-65. That is a .633 win percentage, akin to a 52-win pace. Morant did not look like the same guy last year, but Memphis went 30-20 when he was out there and outscored teams by 6.8 points per 100 possessions, a solid number for a star on a playoff team.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is coming off an excellent year. He’s got his faults, with the fouling and rebounding alongside the unconventional way he gets his offense being unavoidable, but he’s solidified himself as a top-30 guy and worthwhile No. 2 to Morant if he can get back in form this season.
The contributions beyond those two should be healthy as always. Year 2 for Jaylen Wells and Zach Edey could take that into overdrive.
Wells immediately established himself as a winning player and is already just a good, all-around, two-way wing with more room to grow. Edey is someone the team drafting him had to know how to utilize properly, and the Grizzlies’ complete dysfunction behind the scenes with the coaching staff probably played a role in them clearly not getting the most out of his skillset. The playoffs were also telling with how much more difficult it will be for him to score individually and finish around the rim, so keep an eye on his production this go-around.
In no surprise, those net rating stats for Morant were topped by Brandon Clarke, who continues to be a luxury of a backup big. Ty Jerome was an excellent signing to take the reigns voided by Bane’s departure as the secondary ball-handler, while Scottie Pippen Jr. can keep helping out there too as he did through injuries. Santi Aldama is a crucial piece of the puzzle to provide shooting, especially as a big. He and Jerome will really need to carry that catch-and-shoot/supplementary scoring part of the equation that Bane handled previously.
The wild card is the wing group beyond Wells. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was rough in Orlando. He might be hitting a wall hard at 32. GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr., two great finds that boded well for the future after the 2023-24 season, were unable to get healthy, with Jackson fading out of the rotation toward the end of the year. Cedric Coward was playing in the Big Sky Conference two years ago, played six games at Washington State last season and then went 11th in this year’s draft. His collegiate track record does not match how many front offices absolutely loved him, so something’s off here (in a good way). Expect him on First Team All-Rookie.
An infestation of the injury bug has plagued Memphis for a few years now. If it can get a reasonable outcome on that end, plus Morant resuming his ascension, this has the feel of everything getting back on track to sniffing around 50 wins again. But until the injuries relent and Morant proves he can stay on the court without nonsense off it, it’s difficult to fully trust this bunch.