Win Total - 5.5 (Over - 144, Under - +118)
National Championship Odds - +75000
Big 12 Championship Odds - +2500
After living in a veritable Truman Show the last two years, it’s been pretty quiet around the Colorado Buffaloes for the last five months. Part of that is purposeful as Deion Sanders has recovered from a pretty gnarly cancer diagnosis in Dallas. But part of that is also because a lot of the hullabaloo surrounding the program has left the building, now that Shadeur Sanders and Travis Hunter are both in the NFL.
In this new era of quiet confidence that the Buffs have, there’s once again an underestimation by national media about what this team might do. The current win total at FanDuel is 5.5 wins, and I’m pretty confidently on the over for this season. Let me go game by game to break down why.
Starting with the gimmes—or at least what should be gimmes:
* **Wyoming at home** - This should be a no-sweat game
* **Delaware at home** - This should be an even less sweat game. Like negative sweat. Julian Lewis should get some time.
* **Houston** on the road - This is a more controversial pick than the prior two. I’m not a believer in Houston…yet. Connor Wegman, when healthy, is a good QB. He can move a bit. But his health has always been a question mark. Beyond him, I’m a little sketched out by this roster. Losing Shiel Woods as DC is not great for Houston, he captained a great unit last year. The roster is still not in a position to compete in the Big 12, in my opinion.
* **Arizona** on the road - I have 0 faith in a Brent Brennan Arizona team until proven otherwise
* **West Virginia** on the road - West Virginia changed literally everything about their team except for the logo. And the colors. Which is good, the logo and colors are awesome.
That puts at 5 right there, which is still not hitting that over win total. But it’s pretty damn close.
Past that, there are some toss-up games here that CU has a chance in:
* **Georgia Tech at home** - Close line, two new teams, big state. Friday night at altitude helps at home, but Georgia Tech is experienced. Haynes King and Jamal Haynes are a great place to start a team, and the lines are no slouch. Brent Key is good for a sport.
* **TCU on the road** - Josh Hoover is a great quarterback. Prolific, you could say. Exciting. Exhausting. He’s all of those things. Sonny Dykes has yet to recreate 2021, and I’m not convinced about the rest of the talent on the roster. Remember Trevone Boykin? That was a wild time.
* **BYU at home** - BYU DEMOLISHED the Buffs in the Alamo Bowl. They are now down one quarterback, most of their established skill talent (like CU) and plenty of talent in their front 7. Bet against them at their peril, but I feel like this is a different Cougar team.
I think all three of those can go CU’s way under the right circumstance. And obviously, if all three of those are losses, that 5.5 gets a lot harder.
Then we have likely losses—there are 3-ish landmines on this schedule that are pretty likely losses:
* **Kansas State** **on the road** - Kansas State didn’t look great last week, but they have talent and a good quarterback and Manhattan sucks to play at. And go to. And visit. it might just suck?
* **Iowa State** **at home** - Iowa State, on the other hand, looks like a tough out, man. Good d, good run game, gamer QB. Very annoying
* **Utah on the road** - Same as above, except the QB is Devon Dampier and he rules.
* **Arizona State at home -** \*sigh\* I guess the same as above. This is very annoying how good these teams are.
I think the Buffs have a shifting spotlight problem. Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders brought and took all the oxygen. This team is deeper, bigger and more athletic than last year’s team. There is just less star power. I’ll take a team with continuity and depth, in THIS BIG 12, two win more than 5 games.
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