We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at Stamford Bridge with our Chelsea vs Fulham prediction and preview. Which way will this west London derby go?
Chelsea vs Fulham: The Key Stats
Chelsea have lost just three of their previous 36 Premier League games against Fulham.
The Opta supercomputer does not expect them to lose here, giving the home side a 59.4% probability of winning the match.
João Pedro is looking to become the fourth Chelsea player in the Premier League era to score 5+ goals in his first five starts for the club
The derby between Chelsea and Fulham is a rivalry of location rather than results.
The win count in the Premier League reads 22 to three in favour of the blue side of west London. Among teams who’ve faced Fulham more than six times in the competition, only Manchester United (2.30) and Arsenal (2.22) have a better points-per-match average against them than Chelsea (2.14).
Yet, Fulham may approach this fixture in reasonably confident mood after securing a rare win at Stamford Bridge last season. Their 2-1 victory ended a 21-game winless streak away to Chelsea in all competitions, though they’ve never won consecutive visits in their history.
Fulham are at least in decent form when on the road in the capital. They have won four of their last eight away Premier League London derbies (D2 L2). This is as many as they managed in their previous 68 combined, a run that included 43 losses.
This helps explain why it is 22 years since they secured consecutive away London victories. Having beaten Brentford 3-2 in May, Fulham have an opportunity to end this lengthy, unhappy sequence on Saturday.
Fulham are yet to record their first Premier League win this season, with a pair of 1-1 draws to their name after coming from behind to secure a point against both Brighton and Manchester United. Only in 2010-11 have the club drawn their first three matches in a top-flight season.
Chelsea’s campaign has begun in strangely similar fashion to 2024-25, in that they failed to score in a home game before bagging five (or more) goals on the road. Last season, the respective opponents were Manchester City and Wolves, this time around it was Crystal Palace and West Ham. A 1-1 draw with the Eagles was match three last season, so Fulham fans hoping for a positive omen can bear that fact in mind.
A more pertinent advantage for the visitors is that they have no reported injuries at present, the only team in the division for whom that is the case. Chelsea are without six players, though the size of their squad means such issues can be more readily accommodated than they can at most other clubs.
If Cole Palmer doesn’t recover to play, he will be the most notable absentee. He was named in the starting XI at West Ham last Friday, only to sustain an injury in the warm up. Players who will definitely be unavailable to Enzo Maresca include Benoît Badiashile, Levi Colwill and Roméo Lavia.
Their win at London Stadium fully illustrated the strength of options at the Blues’ disposal. Five different players scored, with another two collecting assists. Estêvão became the youngest player to ever assist a Premier League goal for Chelsea, but it was João Pedro who was the cream of the crop.
He got the first goal before setting up both Pedro Neto and Trevoh Chalobah to score. Pedro has four goals in four starts for the Blues, so could join a select group of forwards here. In the Premier League era, only Diego Costa (seven goals), Alvaro Morata (five) and Tammy Abraham (seven) have scored at least five goals in their first five Chelsea starts in all competitions.
João Pedro Chelsea Goals
It will be interesting to see who Marco Silva selects up top, as his primary strikers have started one league match each this season. Raúl Jiménez will become the first Mexican player to make 200 appearances in the Premier League if he features at any point.
Rodrigo Muniz may get the nod to start though, not least because he got the winner in this fixture last season. He has also scored six goals in his last 10 away Premier League appearances, averaging a goal every 45 minutes across those games.
Even if he doesn’t start, Muniz is capable of providing goals off the bench. He’s scored more goals as a substitute (seven) than any other player in the Premier League since the start of last season, while teammate Harry Wilson follows him in the rankings (five). Fulham have scored 19 Premier League goals via subs since the start of last season, four more than any other team.
The firepower advantage undoubtedly lies with Chelsea, though. A Fulham defence with no clean sheet in their last 11 league games stretching back to mid-March will likely offer enough chances for the hosts to score their first home goal of the season.
Chelsea vs Fulham Head-to-Head
This derby is arguably the most one-sided you will find in English football.
Chelsea have lost just three of their 36 Premier League games against Fulham (8.3%). This is the joint-lowest loss rate one side has against another in the competition (with a minimum of 20 meetings) alongside Manchester United’s impressive record against Aston Villa.
However, Marco Silva’s side did win at Stamford Bridge on their previous visit, which was on Boxing Day last year. They came from behind to win 2-1 with a 95th-minute goal from Rodrigo Muniz sending the visiting fans wild.
Chelsea 1-2 Fulham 2024-25
Chelsea vs Fulham Prediction
Reigning world champions Chelsea are unsurprisingly strong favourites to win this match.
The Opta supercomputer rates their chances of a derby victory at 59.4%. The likelihood of the home side not winning is fairly evenly split, with 21.2% of the 10,000 simulations ending in a draw and the other 19.4% assigned to a Fulham win.
Chelsea vs Fulham Prediction Opta Supercomputer
Chelsea vs Fulham Predicted Lineups
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Malo Gusto, Trevoh Chalobah, Tosin Adarabioyo, Marc Cucurella, Moisés Caicedo, Enzo Fernández, Estêvão, João Pedro, Pedro Neto, Liam Delap.
Head coach: Enzo Maresca
Fulham: Bernd Leno, Kenny Tete, Joachim Andersen, Calvin Bassey, Ryan Sessegnon, Sasa Lukic, Sander Berge, Timothy Castagne, Josh King, Alex Iwobi, Rodrigo Muniz.
Head coach: Marco Silva
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Saturday afternoon at Stamford Bridge, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Premier League Stats Opta
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