Washington Wizards wing Kyshawn George Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images
Kyshawn George, Washington’s third rookie last season, had a classic up and down season. His performance went through major peaks and valleys — at times, pretty good and just godawful at others.
As I wrote back in May:
Reminder: In PPA, 100 is average and higher is better. Replacement level is 45.
George’s name recently popped up on the Hollinger and Duncan podcast where John Hollinger and Nate Duncan discussed the respect Wizards coaches reportedly had for his defense in the latter part of the season. Better defensive metrics have him as basically a neutral defender, which isn’t bad for a rookie — especially when playing for the defense-challenged Wizards.
The combination of his overall performance and his status as a relatively older rookie (age 21) was not particularly promising. That said, I’m a big believer in the theory that young players (and 21 is still young!) control their NBA destiny to the extent that they’re willing or able to work.
Today’s exercise isn’t to rehash that article from May, but to run him through the Statistical Doppelganger Machine, look at the comparable player seasons The Machine spits out and see what — if anything — it might tell us about George.
The Statistical Doppelganger Machine takes a reference seasons (in this case, George’s rookie year) and compares it to every other player season since 1977-78. The Machine uses 14 pieces of information, including age and per possession box score stats. Despite height and position not being factors, players usually get stat comps from the same position group. In George’s case, the position range is somewhat wider — I classified him as a wing, but he arguably has the size to play forward and the skills to play guard in today’s NBA.
The Doppelgangers
Stanley Johnson, Detroit Pistons, 2017-18, age: 21 — This was Johnson’s third season. He’d been the eighth overall pick in 2015, and his career never launched. He languished as a well-below average bit player for several seasons and was out of the league after his age 26 season.
Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves, 2021-22, age: 21 — Now we’re talking. This was year two for McDaniels, and while it was a little better than his rookie year, it still wasn’t good. McDaniels hasn’t become a consistent shooter, but he has developed into a top-shelf defender and key contributor to Minnesota’s post-season runs.
Josh Hart, Los Angeles Lakers, 2018-19, age: 23 — Hart’s second season, which was also the worst of his career. He’s gone through some shooting struggles, but he’s made himself into a quality player by doing all the dirty work good teams need done — without ever seeming to get tired. This one feels the most “about right” to me.
Nik Stauskas, Philadelphia 76ers, 2015-16, age: 22 — Interesting prospect who had the misfortune of playing for The Process Sixers.
Kevin Huerter, Atlanta Hawks, 2018-19, age: 20 — Kinda okay as a rookie, Huerter seemed to his stride when he got traded to the Sacramento Kings before his fifth season, and then kinda fizzled and kept getting hurt.
Landy Shamet, Los Angeles Clippers, 2019-20, age: 22 — The Wizards hope not. This is not a knock on Shamet, who plays hard and seemed to be an excellent teammate when he was in Washington. He’s just…not very good — consistently below average — and he struggles to stay on the court because of frequent injuries.
Wesley Johnson, MIN, 2010-11, age: 23 — Another “hope not.” For those too young to remember, Johnson was the fourth overall selection in the 2010 draft, and…well…he’s kind of a poster child for the power of being a high draft pick. He lasted nine seasons despite none of them being much good. He peaked with an 81 PPA at age 26, and then faded from there.
Deni Avdija, Washington Wizards, age: 21 — This was year two for Avdija, and the Wizards hope George follows a similar path. Avdija has improved every season of his career, and hit a career high 131 PPA last season.
Cam Reddish, Atlanta Hawks, 2019-20, age: 20 — Highly touted prospect who was not good at Duke, got drafted 10th overall anyway, and has been not too good. His peak season (so far): a 70 PPA in 2021-22, which is when the Hawks gave up on him. They did a challenge trade, sending Reddish and a first round pick to the New York Knicks for Solomon Hill and Kevin Knox. A year later, the Knicks dealt him to the Portland Trail Blazers in the four-team deal that netted them Josh Hart.
Trenton Hassell, Chicago Bulls, 2001-02, age: 22 — The 30th overall selection, Hassell stuck around for nine seasons as a defensive specialist during the NBA’s dead-ball era. In 2003-04, he started 74 games and played 2,264 total minutes with a 9.4% usage rate. I don’t believe a player like this could survive in today’s NBA. At minimum, he’d need to shoot better than 31.8% on threes.
Overall, these comps feel about right — some pretty good role players and some end-of-the-rotation types who stuck around for a few years by working hard.
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