Newcastle United are rated as favourites by the Opta supercomputer for their trip to Leeds United on Saturday. Look ahead to the game at Elland Road with our prediction and preview.
Leeds vs Newcastle: The Key Stats
The Opta Supercomputer rates Newcastle United as the favourites this weekend, with Eddie Howe’s side winning 44.7% of its pre-match simulations.
Newcastle have won seven of their 14 trips to face Leeds United at Elland Road in the Premier League.
Daniel Farke has not lost against Newcastle in either of his two top-flight encounters with them.
Newcastle are out to put a check in the win column when they travel to a Leeds side looking to bounce back from a testing week.
The Magpies opened with a 0-0 draw against Aston Villa before losing a dramatic encounter 3-2 at Liverpool on Monday night.
Consequently, Eddie Howe’s men have lost three of their last four Premier League matches (D1), more than in the 11 games that preceded that run (W8, D1, L2). They last had a longer winless run in September and October 2024 (five games).
They have, however, secured eight straight Premier League wins over promoted sides, netting at least three goals in seven of those victories. They last enjoyed a better streak in such encounters between December 1994 and October 1996 (9).
Harvey Barnes will be out to continue an impressive record against Leeds. The winger has netted five goals in six Premier League appearances against Leeds, netting in five games in a row for Leicester between 2020 and 2022. Between 2020-21 and 2022-23, only Mohamed Salah (9) and Bruno Fernandes (6) scored more often against Leeds than Barnes.
Leeds started their top-flight campaign with a 1-0 win over Everton but were battered 5-0 at Arsenal last Saturday before a penalty-shootout defeat in the EFL Cup in midweek to a Sheffield Wednesday side comprised of mainly under-21s.
Still, there are always small mercies to be found, and Newcastle are one of two sides that Leeds boss Daniel Farke has faced in the Premier League more than once without losing against (W1, D1), along with Bournemouth (W1, D1).
The Cherries were managed by Howe in those two games in 2019-20, making him one of two managers Farke has faced twice and not lost against, along with Steve Bruce.
Moreover, Leeds are now unbeaten in 21 home league games (W18, D3), their joint-best run under Farke. The last time they had a longer run was between January 2009 and January 2010 (25 in League One), while in the top division, their last longer run was between May 1991 and November 1992 (31).
Leeds’ win over Everton means they can collect back-to-back home wins in the Premier League for the first time since August 2022, while the last time they managed the feat while keeping clean sheets in both games was February 2021.
Aaron Stach has impressed since joining in the close season. The midfielder has created seven chances in the top flight thus far – the most of any player. He has been directly involved in 11 of Leeds’ 24 shots, taking four himself (46%).
Anton Stach chances created Premier League 2025-26
Anthony Gordon‘s red card against Liverpool means he misses out through suspension, a particular blow considering he has the most shots (10) in the Premier League this season, while only three players have had more touches in the opposition box (12). Sandro Tonali and Joelinton are also huge doubts having come off against the Reds, while Fabian Schär suffered a concussion and misses out due to Premier League protocols on head injuries.
Farke has issues with his Leeds midfield as Ethan Ampadu and Ao Tanaka are both unavailable. That means Sean Longstaff should feature against his former club.
Leeds vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Leeds actually hold a decent record against Newcastle in their most recent encounters with the Magpies, losing just one of their past six such Premier League encounters – a 1-0 defeat in January 2022.
However, Newcastle have historically fared pretty well at Elland Road, winning 50% of their Premier League away games (7/14). That represents Newcastle’s highest win rate against any side they have faced 10-plus times on the road.
Leeds vs Newcastle Prediction
Leeds vs Newcastle Prediction Opta Supercomputer
The Opta supercomputer does not give Leeds the best chance of rebounding from their tough week, rating their chances of victory at just 29.5%.
Conversely, Newcastle have a 44.7% probability of emerging victorious, with the draw rated at 25.8%.
In terms of the season overall, Leeds are still tipped for the drop, with 19th (13.7%) rated as their most likely final position, though the chance of coming 17th (11.3%) is not all that different. Newcastle, as it stands, are most likely to place sixth (9.6%).
Leeds vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups
Leeds United: Lucas Perri, Jayden Bogle, Joe Rodon, Pascal Struijk, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Anton Stach, Ilia Gruev, Sean Longstaff, Daniel James, Wilfried Gnonto, Joël Piroe.
Head coach: Daniel Farke
Newcastle United: Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Malick Thiaw, Dan Burn, Tino Livramento, Bruno Guimarães, Joe Willock, Jacob Ramsey, Anthony Elanga, William Osula, Harvey Barnes.
Head coach: Eddie Howe
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Premier League Stats Opta
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