The NBA offseason has come and gone! Mostly!
Outside of some restricted free agency nonsense, we know the shape the league is headed in next season. With that, it is time for our annual revisiting of the pecking order in the Phoenix Suns’ Western Conference heading into next season.
After covering where the Suns landed, here are two sleepers that could make the playoffs and three mainstays that all have their own concerns.
Tier 4: Doing it ‘the right way.’ Probably.
9. San Antonio Spurs
Hmmmmm. That’s why they pay me the big bucks — to click on the keyboard. To go, “Hmmmmm.”
Not sure what to do with this bunch!
The most delicate balance for NBA roster constructors to perfect is how to give your superstar enough lead support on the ball so it’s not all on them, all while still forming a supplementary cast that plays off that superstar well.
De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle give more than enough playmaking juice to make sure Victor Wembanyama gets set up properly and doesn’t have to carry a strenuous load. That’s before getting to Devin Vassell, who San Antonio probably would have loved to Jalen Green’d in a Kevin Durant trade to get rid of a major salary that doesn’t really fit into its long-term plans.
But is this as simple as not having enough shooting? I’m a huge Fox guy, but he’s at 33% from 3 for his eight-year career. Harper was at 33.3% in college. Castle’s rookie number was 28.5%.
The problem is those are your foundational guys on the perimeter. Vassell’s at 36.9% over five years, while Harrison Barnes’ solid reliability spiked to 43.3% last season and Julian Champagnie mainly got run last year because of his 37.1% mark on nearly six (!) attempts per game. I am a firm believer that Carter Bryant can shoot that thing, and with a true 3-and-D wing missing in San Antonio since Wembanyama was drafted, he needs to play 25-plus minutes a night right away.
Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan are still here! Maybe this is the year they turn into that wing! Luke Kornet was a sneaky good signing as the optimal 20 MPG center to let the alien play some 4 at times, and Kelly Olynyk is the yang to the yin as the stretch big component of that equation. Overall, this feels like enough depth (or at least talent) to make a run at a top-six finish in the conference.
We’ll end as we began with some stupid analysis. This is just going to come down to how great Fox and Wembanyama are. If they are both All-Stars, which they should be, this is the year we see the future of the league make his playoff debut.
Remember, Fox was Third Team All-NBA two years ago and nearly upset the Warriors in his own playoff debut with a broken finger in his shooting hand. Also remember the move between franchises that he made. He is going from Sacramento to San Antonio. Anyone who got skittish on their stored-up stock on him within the last year, please reach out. I will take whatever you are offering.
How elite Wembanyama is right now depends on how you decipher his defensive impact on a blah squad last year. It seemed fairly immense, and this is a dude that has a ton of room to grow still on the offensive end, where he’s pretty good already. As covered with Cooper Flagg in the Mavericks section of these power rankings, there is an infatuation to anoint him, so we’re not going to get squirrely here and name him to win MVP or anything, which might just happen regardless. But he’s coming, just in time for that sick Nike campaign.
8. Portland Trail Blazers
NBA
This is my big buy. I’m all the way in on the Blazers.
In the second half of last year, they were a great defensive team bordering on phenomenal, crucially stumbling onto their identity. They will add another year of growth for Toumani Camara, a name on the shortlist for best value contract right now, sitting at $2 million as a top-tier defender and awesome gap-filler elsewhere. Clearing out Deandre Ayton at the 5 for Donovan Clingan was wise — the second-year big should immediately establish himself as one of the best rim protectors around.
And then there was the Jrue Holiday add, which strangely took on a ton of criticism. Perhaps it is a jaded perspective coming from a platinum-level member of the Holiday bandwagon or as someone who saw the effect Ricky Rubio had on the 2020-21 Suns, but how about we take it a step further? How about Chris Paul and the way he (and Jae Crowder) taught Suns youngsters how to win while instilling a culture through that?
Holiday will do that, even after a down year, which indicates he is fading a bit. He is a seamless identity fit defensively and an underrated, cushy squeeze in the backcourt. Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe continue to show positives, but are they ready to command an offense right now, just the two of them? It’s setting them up much better for success to have a long-time veteran support them.
Some would argue this does not matter for a team with no reason for playoff aspirations right now, but again, Rubio got the kiddos on the right track and that is tremendously valuable. Damian Lillard as an injured player-coach will undoubtedly provide just as much of that, too. Holiday’s malleability that will land him in the Hall of Fame (or so help me any higher power above) means he can play more off those two youngins if a breakout is coming for either, and move to the bench later on in the twilight of his career.
There’s also the Deni Avdija trajectory change. He was a good “you-know-ball” identifier if you were really paying attention around the league last season. After the All-Star break, Avdija averaged 23.3 points, 9.7 rebounds and 5.2 assists a night on 51-42-78 shooting splits. That’s with nearly six 3s attempted per game. Is he an All-Star at some point? Maybe? Probably not? But the question existing is notable!
That nutcase Mike Schmitz — I mean, this crazy front office took Hansen Yang 16th overall, a baby Jokic swing that is admirable. Portland will find a way to play him if he’s flashing behind the scenes enough. Keep a close eye on his minutes. Matisse Thybulle and Robert Williams II are round pegs for the round hole of defense-first ball. Remember Jerami Grant? He’s on this team still! And he’s still kind of good! Not $32 million per year good! But good!
There’s just a great mix here of a clear style of play, pieces on the roster that all fit together and young players who will get better. This might be too high for a team that could potentially not even have an All-Star. But that type of synergy just doesn’t exist elsewhere for the teams below, and basketball always rewards synergy.
Tier 3: Surely the weird vibes will not be a factor for these contenders
7. Los Angeles Lakers
Out of respect to Luka Doncic and LeBron James, I refuse to put the Lakers any lower. But the team composition is problematic; James spent the summer trying to regain leverage against the organization and the depth is incredibly shaky.
Defensively, James might be the best individually in the starting lineup. He is turning 41 years old in December. Some of this would work if the team had a signature rim protector, but the inconsistencies of Deandre Ayton being relied on to that extent is a recipe for disaster. Even if Doncic is fully in shape, he is an OK defender at best. Austin Reaves is in a similar category and so is Rui Hachimura.
That’s where complementary pieces like Marcus Smart (trending toward washed), Maxi Kleber (77 games played the last two years), Gabe Vincent (was bad last year) and Jarred Vanderbilt (65 games played the last two years) would help rebalance things in theory. But it’s a bad sign that second-round pick Adou Thiero might be the easiest supporting cast member to generate the most optimism for in regard to the ability to actually do that. Remember Dalton Knecht? I didn’t.
All of this doesn’t matter much if Doncic is indeed going to come into the season in proper physical shape. That’ll get the Lakers to 45 wins regardless of all these concerns, before addressing that he’s going to be bouncing off of James now for the first full season. James is still a completely sensational basketball player, by the way. He made Second Team All-NBA at 40. I know you know that but sometimes presenting a fact aloud feels necessary to properly validate its absurdity.
Whatever preseason narratives will form on Ayton, and you know they’re coming in L.A. of all places, this is Year 8 for him. Enough. When we see it all the time, and we are well familiar what “it” is at this point, that is the time to really buy in on him turning a corner. Trending toward a second-half career trajectory of Andre Drummond, a 12-18 MPG second-string center who gets that role strictly off being enormous and skilled, should serve as enough motivation. So should getting bought out.
Past experience says it will not. As a basketball fan who would like to see him channel all that potential, I hope he defies that trend and type of dismissal.
Keep JJ Redick in your thoughts.
6. Golden State Warriors
In an all-time hardball effort by a front office, Golden State remains in a stalemate with restricted free agent Jonathan Kuminga, to the point where its roster is not even finished yet while presumed signings Al Horford and others have been on standby for two months. There are only nine fully guaranteed salaries on the Warriors’ books at the moment.
That makes this more of a guess when it comes to where to place them. Similar to the thought process with the Lakers, this is a team led by Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green. Curry was Second Team All-NBA, Butler would have been had he played like he did in Golden State all year and a resurgent Green made a strong late push for Defensive Player of the Year. It would be a case of trying too hard or falling victim to overthinking to place them outside a locked-in playoff spot.
Then again, Curry is 37, and while he shows no signs of significantly slowing down, Butler at age 36 sort of has in the regular season at least. He will need to do more heavy lifting than he’s used to and has averaged 59 games played the last four seasons. Green is just a year younger at 35. This foundation is either more stable or wobblier than it appears. It falling under them would not be shocking.
Again, we don’t know the roster’s complete shape, but it’s the same partially proven young players. Brandin Podziemski went from “We Will Not Give Him Up For Lauri Markkanen” as a rookie to unplayable in Year 2, Kuminga is what he is and nothing reflects that more than how the Warriors are willing to elongate this RFA process and Moses Moody is perfectly OK as a fourth wing on a good team. Them being more reliable so there isn’t such a reliance on Buddy Hield would be helpful for their sake.
Quinten Post was a good find as a stretch big, with him and Trayce Jackson-Davis forming a big rotation that goes from perfectly tolerable to pretty solid with Horford. We just have to shrug at what the rest could be beyond those guys because we don’t know who it is yet.
A six-to-eight week injury will come for at least one of their three most important players, and how the others pick up the slack will determine if the Warriors can avoid the play-in. Depending on how that period goes and the growth of some of the younger teams already mentioned, it could get dicey real quick.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
This is a fascinating year in Minnesota, one that will give us either a good hint or straight-up tell us if the Timberwolves are ready to bounce from one era to the next and remain contenders through the rest of the decade with Anthony Edwards at the helm.
Mike Conley turns 38 before the start of the season, and Rudy Gobert just had his 33rd birthday this summer.
Conley averaged just 24.7 minutes per game last year, with his effectiveness waning while he posted career lows in several categories.
Gobert is about to enter that scary mid-30s turn when the impact of incredibly large human beings drastically drops off a cliff if it hasn’t already. He posted the lowest rebounding percentage of his career (when it figuratively shouldn’t have even dropped with Karl-Anthony Towns’ departure).
Conley’s on an expiring $10 million contract while Gobert still has *gulp* three years left, including a player option in 2027-28. The heirs are already in place. Minnesota traded its unprotected 2031 first-rounder to take point guard Rob Dillingham eighth overall last year, while it drafted center Joan Beringer 17th this year.
Dillingham is one of the biggest swing guys on any bench across the league. President of basketball operations Tim Connelly was bashful after the draft when he’s normally quite tepid about rookies, saying Dillingham can run offense and will play right away for the T-Wolves. Dillingham did not, requiring a run of injuries in mid-January to give him his first real action, a six-week period where he did not impress enough to carve out a role the rest of the way. With Nickeil Alexander-Walker gone, he’s going to have to play this year.
Beringer is quite raw but has traits that translate immediately as well, so it’ll be curious to see if he can find spare big minutes behind the terrific Naz Reid off the bench.
It was great as a basketball fan to see Julius Randle in Year 11 finally put it together in the postseason. He was awesome in the first two rounds before trailing off in the conference finals, earning himself a new three-year deal. Signing up for him to be Anthony Edwards’ running mate is something you assume Minnesota would like with more production in the regular season, a period Randle was mostly just fine in last year.
Alexander-Walker is a giant loss, one of the premier glue guys and gap-fillers around. Some of it will be Dillingham, some of it will be more Donte DiVincenzo and Jaden McDaniels, but Terrence Shannon Jr. will be an explosive replacement.
Shannon came out of the draft as an NBA-ready 24-year-old who then bizarrely didn’t get a role until those aforementioned injuries, providing the tremendous energy they direly needed. Now, he can bring his effortless scoring production to the party with more opportunities. His rookie year was important in learning how to use his dynamic athleticism properly, not overheating on both ends and picking his spots. He’s a sleeper Sixth Man of the Year candidate, while former UCLA standout Jaylen Clark had nice moments last season that will factor into this wing grouping, too.
Edwards has cemented himself as a yearly MVP candidate and is still only 24 years old. If it wasn’t for the question marks with the olds and who is replacing them, plus the natural instinct to want to see how Randle looks after getting paid, this would be too low considering the warranted confidence Edwards inspires.