Side-by-side of Shadeur Sanders (Cleveland Browns) and Dillon Gabriel (also the Cleveland Browns)
Kirby Lee Imagn Images / Bill Streicher Imagn Images
We are just a weeks away from the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys kicking off the NFL season. That means us fantasy football players are entering our stretch run, joining one, two, three, four, too many leagues.
We’ve been subjected to an overload of training camp and preseason news. Savvy players are constantly evaluating and re-evaluating players and situations to see what adjustments we need to make to our process to draft the juggernaut team that will wipe the floor with our leaguemates. In my ongoing quest to be savvy, I reviewed my spring takes to see how they’re holding up under the August heat.
Some were bad. Those have been deleted from the following 5 takes, which are smoldering and ready to win you the whole room on draft night.
1) Jahmyr Gibbs Is The True 1.01
This one has basically been locked into my brain since Gibbs went nuclear to end the Lions season. That was a taste of what could be if we get the runout where Gibbs shifts into a workhorse role in 2025.
Outside of injury, I don’t believe we’ll see Gibbs completely ice out David Montgomery. That said, Gibbs is in his prime and has been nothing less than electric in his first two seasons. Yes, losing coordinator Ben Johnson and center Frank Ragnow isn’t great for the offensive environment. But Dan Campbell has shown a strong eye for coaching talent and understanding when changes need to be made.
The Lions have become a model organization under the watch of Campbell and General Manager Brad Holmes. The losses give me some pause, but my belief in what the Lions have built, and Gibbs’ insane talent have me keeping the faith.
I still choose him over the field at No. 1 overall.
2) Garrett Wilson Is Undraftable
Wilson has been one of my favorite players since he entered the league. So awesome, in fact, that the Jets gave him a superstar extension this offseason. We’ve watched Wilson navigate nothing but miserable quarterback play.
He makes awesome plays all over the field, with Gumby-like flexibility making him a staple of highlight clips. He’s one of my highest drafted players over the last few years. Often, with glee.
But, this year the glee has morphed into resignation. Justin Fields is probably on the better end of the quarterbacks Wilson has played with in the pros, but his promise has soured.
Fields himself is an intriguing option for fantasy drafters, but outside of one season with DJ Moore in Chicago, Fields hasn’t shown an ability to support high end receiver production. Reports out of Jets training camp haven’t been encouraging for Fields and they’ve been more bearish for WIlson’s prospects. And the coaches can’t seem to stop talking about how desperate they are to run the ball with their litany of backs.
WIlson’s third-round average draft position (ADP) places him smack in the middle of a flat-tier of players with similar upside and concerns of their own. I didn’t expect my opinion of Wilson’s fantasy potential would shift, but when I dabbled with spring time best ball drafts I could feel the change. And now he’s off my board entirely; there is simply more upside elsewhere at his price point.
3) A Jag In Every Draft
Putting too much stock in coaching changes has led us astray plenty of time before. If new shiny object coach Liam Coen flops in year one with Jacksonville, it wouldn’t be a shock.
That said, Coen is in as good a spot as any to live up to the hype.
Last year in Tampa Bay, Coen stepped in for last year’s shiniest object coach Dave Canales and delivered a juggernaut offense for the Bucs. Nearly every skill player overachieved: Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin (who was on a career-year pace before getting hurt), Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and Cade Otton. Even third-string RB Sean Tucker popped off for a RB1 overall week, and rookie Jalen McMillan ripped off quality weeks during the fantasy playoffs.
Coen taking his talent to Jacksonville gives hope for the Jags.
I was into the Jags offense before the draft where the team added unicorn player Travis Hunter and speedy running back Bhayshul Tuten. As long as Coen keeps Brian Thomas Jr. on his superstar trajectory and finds a way to bring consistency to Trevor Lawrence’s game, I’d consider that a win.
But, Coen’s offense looked like an all-you-can eat buffet last year and I’m ready to fill my plate. Outside of BTJ and Hunter, the rest of the Jags skill players come with such low ADPs that there is little downside to drafting whatever Jags you can get and seeing how things play out.
Buy now.
4) #NeverCleveland
The moribund Browns have been reaping what they sowed for making the Deshaun Watson trade in one of the most craven moves we’ve ever seen in a league built on craven moves.
The Browns have nearly made it to the other side of the Watson fiasco, But, karma isn’t quite done with the Browns. There’s at least one more season of misery before a top quarterback prospect potentially lands in Cleveland.
For fantasy, things may look even bleaker than the team’s real-world outlook. David Njoku and Jerry Jeudy complied their way to viable production last year and they’ll have to do it again because the Browns aren’t set up for offensive efficiency.
This offseason hasn’t brought much promise, with their second round running back, Quinshon Judkins, getting himself caught up in an alleged domestic violence incident before he even signed his rookie contract. The team drafted Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders to add to their quarterback room of Smokin’ Joe Flacco. (Kenny Sticky Wicket Pickett got cut this week, ICYMI.).
For good measure they signed Tyler Huntley to help with training camp injuries. The Factory of Sadness appears to be in midseason form. If I was already out on Browns players for fantasy back in the spring, nothing that has happened since has knocked me off that stance. Any draft where I come away with a Brown means I messed up big time.
So don’t draft any. But keep an eye out for lefty rookie QB Gabriel, who is a remarkable leader and game manager. When the Browns decide to “see what they have in Dillon Gabriel” to run out their bad season, I think he’ll be frisky and cheap to acquire. That’s a recipe for fantasy success.
5) Invest In The Denver Broncos Backfield
Specifically, spellbinding rookie RJ Harvey. He is set to be the Alvin Kamara in Head Coach Sean Payton’s offense. Electric in space, nose for the endzone. Despite recent tweets about his pass-blocking, Harvey Hive isn’t scared.
And I’m in on J.K. Dobbins too, despite four straight years of devastating, season-ending injuries. That’s baked into his new price. The 26-year-old from La Grange, Texas was one of the most dominant, bullet-train backs I’ve ever seen at Ohio State. I think he is Pierre Thomas-level useful at his price and if he can survive the season with two working knees, vastly outperforms for your team. Talent + opportunity is always a winning formula.
And Dobbins’ success isn’t Harvey’s loss, either. There are enough touches for everyone to eat here, Detroit Lions-style.