Owing to West Ham United’s terrible start to the new season, Graham Potter’s job is now under pressure at the London Stadium.
After three games played, West Ham have conceded 11 goals and Jarrod Bowen’s actions after defeat to Wolverhampton Wanderers seemed indicative of the feeling at the club right now.
Graham Potter’s job is at risk, and if West Ham continue like they are, their status as a Premier League club might also be in jeopardy too.
That being said, TBR Football recently revealed that Potter had two games to save his West Ham job, and one of those was the defeat to Wolves.
And with that in mind, football finance expert Adam Williams has now taken a look at how much it could cost the Hammers to potentially part ways with Potter.
How much would it cost West Ham to sack Graham Potter?
Speaking exclusively to TBR Football, Williams admitted his skepticism about just how much faith West Ham had in Potter even before they announced him as manager.
Williams said: “The fact that Potter – a ‘project’ manager in the modern parlance, who would say he needs time for his processes to bear fruit – was reportedly only offered a six-month deal at West Ham in my view shows that the ownership have never been entirely confident in him.
“Among the supposed conditions of that deal were break clauses which the club could trigger if the manager doesn’t meet certain targets.
“We don’t know what those targets are, how long they are valid for, or indeed if they really exist at all. There have been conflicting reports, after all.
“But the basic assumption with a manager’s contract is that a club has to buy out the remainder or at least a significant portion of his deal in order to terminate it early.
Graham Potter applauds West Ham fans after losing to Wolves.
Photo by James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images
“He was said to be on £200,000 per week at Chelsea, though I doubt it will be close to that at West Ham.
“Lopetegui was said to be entitled to £3.3m in compensation when he was sacked. If we assume that’s a year’s salary, that equates to just less than £65,000 weekly.
“I’m speculating, but I imagine Potter’s contract won’t be too dissimilar. Sometimes that seven-figure fee is paid out in one go, while in other instances the manager will continue to receive their salary.
“As far as the accounts are concerned, however, I suspect it would be capitalised immediately either way – and that means that, even if he continued to receive his salary as normal, the total cost would be deducted from West Ham’s bottom line and, by extension, their PSR calculation.”
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Premier League prize money could cover Potter’s exit if things turn around
In terms of West Ham’s upcoming fixtures, Potter’s side face a trip to Nottingham Forest before the international break, which could be a tense period for the former Chelsea boss.
And if he’s still in charge, the Hammers then have two crucial home games against Tottenham Hotspur and Crystal Palace in east London.
Continuing on the cost of Potter going, Williams said: “A lot also depends on whether Potter’s staff stay or go too, though that won’t move the needle too much as far as the finances are concerned.
“There might also be legal fees associated with terminating the contract, which I’d put in the same bucket.
“So we’d be looking at low seven figures. I doubt it would be more than £5m. But it is really contingent on the structure of the contract.
“West Ham have seemingly given him the vote of confidence for the time being. But they will be looking at it through the lens of how likely this manager is to get them up the league table.
“If sacking him is the difference between finishing, say, 13th and 15th, then the Premier League prize money alone would make up for the costs of terminating the deal worthwhile.
“If it’s the difference between survival and relegation, that could pay his severance cost 30 times over.”
West Ham won’t solve their ‘mess’ unless there’s a full takeover
Although there is a lot of focus on Potter’s future right now – stressing the idea that he is the issue, Williams was keen to look at the club’s board too.
Back in January, Karren Brady was pushing for Potter to become West Ham manager, the Englishman was her ideal replacement for Lopetegui.
But looking at things now, Williams believes that the club’s ‘mess’ won’t be resolved until a full takeover ensues.
He continued: “All this said, I think the board should be looking closer to home for the root cause of their malaise.
“There are some real structural problems at West Ham. They are a club who, with the right leadership, have virtually limitless potential. I don’t see what the vision is at the moment.
“There’s a lot of short-term commercially-minded thinking – ‘penny-wise, pound-foolish’ is the phrase that springs to mind.
“It seems to be an autocracy with David Sullivan at the top. They have the resources – in terms of the finances, the club’s marketability, its catchment area with the academy and so on – to be a European giant.
“But I can’t see that materialising under the current regime. There was some talk of the club taking on a new minority investor, with Vanessa Gold looking to offload a chunk of her shares.
“But anyone coming in at that level wouldn’t have decisive control – and with the owners valuing the club at £800m-plus, who is going to buy in without that?
“Until there is a full takeover, I don’t think the mess is going to change – at least, not sustainably.
“If ever there was a club that needed a clean break from the ownership, it’s West Ham. Fans will be looking at what is happening at Everton, or even clubs like Sullivan’s old club Birmingham, and asking when their moment is going to be.”