TBR Football understands 49ers Enterprises, the private equity arm of the NFL franchise owners, have informed investors of their valuation of Leeds United, as well as their potential exit strategy.
The information was presented in a fundraising proposal sent to 49ers Enterprises’ limited partners in which the San Francisco-headquartered regime called for £120m of primary capital for the expansion of Elland Road.
The Leeds United press reported in May of this year that the owners planned to issue £120m of shares to fund the stadium redevelopment. The club submitted a planning application to increase capacity at the West Yorkshire stadium by 13,000 in July, with the redesign focused on the West and North stands.
The £120m cash injection has not yet been formally confirmed via Companies House, though TBR Football understands that – as has been reported elsewhere – the money is ready and waiting, pending approval from Leeds City Council expected before the end of October.
Leeds United minority shareholders Red Bull declined the opportunity to invest directly in the stadium, as did several other members of the 49ers’ consortium. They will see their stake in the club slightly diluted as a result.
However, dozens of other limited partners and their syndicates did subscribe. The minimum buy-in price was £250,000, which was widely seen as good value in the afterglow of Daniel Farke’s side securing promotion back to the Premier League.
Last time Leeds were in the top flight, 49ers were minority shareholders, subordinate to former owner Andrea Radrizzani. Club chairman and 49ers president Paraag Marathe likened the experience to being a “passenger on a plane that I was watching fly into a mountain.”
A closeup shot of Leeds United and 49ers Enterprises chairman Paraag Marathe at Leeds United's Premier League opening fixture against Everton
Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images
Now in full control, the project to get 53,000 spectators inside Elland Road is central to their long-term vision for the club, which the fundraising document seen by TBR Football explains in some detail.
Leeds United valued at £527.5m as 49ers’ exit strategy emerges
In the proposal, 49ers describe Leeds as ‘one of the top seven clubs in the UK in terms of domestic viewership and retail sales.’
The club’s annual commercial income, which stood at £43m in the last financial year and will comfortably surpass £50m this season, is one of the club’s most investable qualities.
Matchday income at £31m is impressive too, but the 49ers believe that – amid stadium expansion and rebuild arms race across English football – Leeds cannot afford to forgo growth in this area.
Updated chart showing the matchday incomes and stadium capacities of top English clubs
Matchday income and stadium capacities chart Credit: Adam Williams/TBR Football/GRV Media
The American ownership’s NFL franchise San Francisco 49ers has the highest ticketing income in the division last year at an astonishing £130m. That is one factor behind the American football team’s enterprise valuation, which a recent minority stake sale pegged at around £6.5bn.
For context, 49ers’ deal to buy out Radrizzani in 2023 valued Leeds at approximately £300m.
However, TBR Football can reveal that the proposal sent to the group’s limited partners reveals that the owners’ current in-house valuation of the club is ‘£527.5m, which is at or below recent comparable transactions.’
It also characterises that appraisal as a ‘two-times revenue multiple’. A revenue multiplier is a common method of valuing a football club in tandem with other metrics, such as discounted cash flow, net assets, EBITDA, and less tangible factors such as brand IP.
That revenue multiple is presumably based on their internal revenue modelling in 2025-26. The last time Leeds were in the top flight, they earned just under £190m, so the 49ers’ forecast would be a big upswing.
Chart showing Premier League clubs' commercial and matchday income in 2023-24, Newcastle United, Leeds United, West Ham, Wolves, Everton, Fulham, Leicester City, Aston Villa
Premier League clubs commercial and matchday income Credit: Adam Williams/TBR Football GRV Media
A crude pro-rata calculation based on Leeds’ matchday income in the last published financial year would indicate that an extra 13,000 seats at Elland Road would deliver total revenues of approximately £41m.
In reality, however, the final figure would be much higher, with the new commercially-orientated stadium design set to deliver a far greater yield per fan.
49ers Enterprises target £1bn valuation
Perhaps most significantly, the document describes the £120m share issue as the ‘last fundraise [sic] for Leeds with 49ers as stewards as LUFC expected to be self-sustainable with £300-350m of annual revenue once stadium expansion is complete and the club is finishing in the middle of the EPL.’
‘Exit in 3-5 years, with 2x return expected’, the proposal concludes.
The 49ers took their initial 15 per cent stake in Leeds for just £10m in 2018. They increased their shareholding in 2020 and 2021 at an unspecified valuation. There has since been a £141m capital contribution from the owners, with another £120m for the stadium project imminent.
Leeds United v Wolverhampton Wanderers - Premier League
Photo by Sam Bagnall – AMA/Getty Images
When combined with the £170m paid to take outright control in 2023, a ‘2x return’ on investment to date would imply that the 49ers are looking for at least £1bn when they do eventually sell the club.
The 49ers have also loaned Leeds around £22.5m, though that is already being repaid with interest and likely separate from the analysis.
Opinion: The 49ers have already hinted at their plan to exit Leeds
The 49ers-backed takeover of Rangers was a tacit admission that they won’t be at Leeds United for long enough to see them consistently challenge for European competition.
Clubs operating under the same ownership umbrella cannot compete in the same UEFA competition.
The ‘blind trust’ arrangement that many multi-clubs use to bypass this rule is a quick fix, but it is not sustainable, especially when the 49ers will want the kind of hands-on control that allows them to deploy their expertise, contacts and capital to scale their clubs commercially.
Club Shareholder Other clubs owned
Arsenal Stan Kroenke / Kroenke Sports & Entertainment Colorado Rapids
Aston Villa V Sports Vitória S.C.
Bournemouth Black Knight Football & Entertainment FC Lorient, Auckland FC, Hibernian FC
Brighton & Hove Albion Tony Bloom Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
Brentford Best Intentions Analytics Mérida AD
Chelsea BlueCo (Todd Boehly & Clearlake Capital) RC Strasbourg
Crystal Palace Josh Harris & David Blitzer FC Augsburg, Real Salt Lake, ADO Den Haag, Waasland-Beveren, Brondby
Everton Friedkin Group AS Roma, AS Cannes
Leeds United 49ers Enterprises Rangers
Manchester City City Football Group New York City FC, Melbourne City, Girona FC, Yokohama F. Marinos, Mumbai City FC, Montevideo City Torque, Lommel SK, Troyes AC, Palermo FC, EC Bahia
Manchester United INEOS (Sir Jim Ratcliffe) OGC Nice, FC Lausanne-Sport, RC Abidjan
Newcastle United Public Investment Fund (Saudi Arabia) Al-Nassr, Al-Hilal, Al-Ahli, Al-Ittihad
Nottingham Forest Evangelos Marinakis Olympiacos, Rio Ave
Burnley ALK Capital Espanyol
West Ham United Daniel Křetínský Sparta Prague
Premier League multi-club networks
And while Rangers’ 9-1 aggregate defeat to Club Brugge in Champions League qualification was undoubtedly cataclysmic, the physics of Scottish football virtually guarantee the Glasgow club European football of some description every season.
An exit in three to five years at Leeds therefore makes sense on paper, unless UEFA relax their regulations on multi-club ownership.
Should they buck the trend and beat the drop as a promoted club next season, Leeds will have greater capacity under Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) from 2026-27 and the resources to stabilise in the Premier League.
In a five-year timeline, the ambition is to do what Aston Villa, Newcastle United and a handful of other upstarts are doing: challenging the ‘Big Six’ aristocracy for European football every season.
Chart showing the revenue of the Premier League's 'Big Six' clubs vs the rest of the division
Premier League Big Six vs Non Bis Six revenue Credit: Adam Williams/TBR Football/GRV Media
49ers are a private equity firm in all but name. Capital appreciation – AKA buy low, sell high – is the name of the game. Their investors expect a return in exchange for their management fees and capital contributions, so a Leeds United takeover was always going to be in the offing at some point.
The big question is what the market for Premier League football clubs looks like approaching the 2030s. In the 2010s and 2020s, clubs have lost billions. For ownership regimes like the 49ers, the challenge will be convincing the next wave of investors that there is real value in their clubs.