Patriots coach Mike Vrabel set his goals when he was hired: Win the AFC East, host playoff games, and compete for championships.
Patriots coach Mike Vrabel set his goals when he was hired: Win the AFC East, host playoff games, and compete for championships.Danielle Parhizkaran/Globe Staff
When he was hired in January, Patriots coach Mike Vrabel set his goals clearly: Win the AFC East, host playoff games, and compete for championships.
What he wasn’t clear on was how long it should take to get there.
“What the timeline is, just like we say with injuries,” Vrabel said. “We’re not going to put a timeline on an injury, and we’re certainly not going to put a timeline on what those will be.”
Following consecutive 4-13 seasons, the worst in Foxborough in 30 years, no one of sane mind expects the Patriots to compete for a championship in 2025. Winning the AFC East and hosting a playoff game isn’t too realistic, either, not with Josh Allen and the Bills holding an iron grip over the division the last five seasons.
But getting back near .500 (8-9 or 9-8) and remaining in wild-card contention until Week 18? That’s the minimum requirement to consider this season a success.
Put it this way – Robert and Jonathan Kraft didn’t fire Jerod Mayo after one year, hire Vrabel and Josh McDaniels, and spend the most cash in free agency of any NFL team (more than $180 million in full guarantees) to go 6-11 and draft in the top 10 again. They lost patience for a slow rebuild after about three months of watching Mayo.
These Patriots are not devoid of talent after adding Stefon Diggs, Milton Williams, Robert Spillane, Carlton Davis, and Morgan Moses. Drake Maye is a promising young quarterback. The defense could be really good. Vrabel and McDaniels are quality coaches.
“I keep saying they’re going to be a lot better than anticipated,” former Patriots cornerback Jason McCourty said. “I think New England is very much in that mix and could easily be challenging Buffalo for the top of that division.”
The Patriots are not a tear-down-to-the-studs rebuild. It might take three years to build them into a Super Bowl contender, but not just to compete for a wild-card spot — not when there are now seven playoff teams per conference.
“This is a team that, they can come back in a hurry,” CBS analyst Tony Romo said. “I see the signs of this turning around very fast.”
A 7-10 record this fall, despite a three-win improvement, would still be disappointing. An 8-9 record would be fine. But not a “success” or a “great season,” when quick turnarounds happen time and again in the NFL.
“I feel like .500 and above is a proper baseline,” CBS’s J.J. Watt said.
Some recent turnarounds from first-year coaches:
⋅ The 2024 Commanders (Dan Quinn) improving from four wins to 12 and reaching the NFC Championship game;
⋅ the 2023 Texans (DeMeco Ryans) improving from three to 10 wins;
⋅ the 2022 Giants (Brian Daboll) going from four wins to nine (with one tie) with Daniel Jones;
⋅ the 2017 Rams (Sean McVay) going from four to 11 wins with young Jared Goff;
⋅ and in 2008, the Dolphins (Tony Sparano) improving from one win to 11, and the Falcons (Mike Smith) from four wins to 11.
Those are what you would call “great” first seasons.
Now some other eye-opening stats. The NFL has had:
⋅ At least four new playoff teams for 35 straight seasons.
⋅ At least one team go from last place to the playoffs in 26 of the last 29 seasons.
⋅ At least one team go from drafting in the top five to the playoffs in 21 of the last 23 years.
⋅ Twenty-five teams go worst-to-first since 2000, last done by the 2023 Texans.
In other words, the NFL is designed for every team to have a shot at winning nine games and making the playoffs.
Las Vegas believes in the Patriots turning their fortunes around quickly. Of the 10 worst teams from 2024, the Patriots and Bears have the highest over/under projections at 8.5 wins. The Titans, Browns, and Giants, who drafted right before the Patriots, are at 4.5 and 5.5.
So does ESPN, which looked at the eight last-place teams from 2024, and determined that the Patriots have the third-best chance of winning their division this fall.
“With all this added talent, plus simple regression to the mean, the Patriots are almost guaranteed to be better than a year ago,” wrote ESPN’s Aaron Schatz. “They also have an easy schedule that ranks 28th based on average projected DVOA [defense-adjusted value over average] of their opponents.”
Plus, think of it this way, the 2024 Patriots had a rookie quarterback with the worst roster and worst coaching in the NFL, yet still won four games, and could have won four others: overtime losses to the Seahawks and Titans, Ja’Lynn Polk’s missed toe-tap against the Dolphins, and a last-second loss to the Colts. The Mayo Patriots also had seven blowout losses that surely will be closer games under Vrabel.
Now add better coaching, better talent, more experience for Maye, the NFL’s third-easiest strength of schedule, and an easy travel schedule with no games west of the Mississippi.
It’s a recipe for a quick turnaround.
“I think the sky’s the limit for the Pats this year,” said CBS analyst Logan Ryan, who won two Super Bowls with the Patriots, then played for Vrabel for two years in Tennessee. “The playoffs should be well, well within their expectations. I know Vrabel will take it one game at a time, but I think the fans should be really excited.”
It wouldn’t be fair to expect an AFC East title and deep playoff run from the Patriots in Vrabel’s first year. But winning at least eight games and remaining competitive for a wild card until Week 18 is a realistic standard for any team, let alone one with Vrabel at coach and $180 million in new free agents.
Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com.